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[ToonyMan]

Im not spamming here....and im not a robot either...Let's be friends.

Yesssss let's.

[alway]

Bump and repurposed. I'll be adding more Lynx and info to the OP over the weekend; this thread is now about private spaceflight rather than a single company.

[andrea]

the  Blue Origin's VTOL craft look like XCOM's alien small scouts!(more or less)

by the way,did spacex say when and how they are doing tests for falcon 9 heavy and human spaceflight for dragon? how many years away are we?

[alway]

The Falcon Heavy is supposed to have its first launch in 2013 or 2014 (so probably 2014).
As for getting their craft human-rated, it's mostly an issue of adding a couple more safety features, then putting in chairs and life support; most of the time it takes will be going through very rigorous testing. IIRC, they were aiming for around 2014 or 2015 to have all of that sorted out.

[mainiac]

The nice thing about "private" space flight is that it cuts through all the creeping bloat that was in the space program previously.  It's not like SpaceX is a more private company then Lockhead Martin.  But there was a lot of institutional inertia and bad supply chains in our previous contracts that SpaceX was able to avoid.  This is good for short term efficiency.  But will it last long?

The buyers in space launch know how much it costs the producers and will demand appropriate prices.  So if SpaceX keeps costs down they are also keeping their selling prices down.  There's no competitive market for spacecraft because the entry barriers are to big and the market is too small.  So the most economically logical course for SpaceX will be trending towards what previous government contractors have done, allow costs to creep up a bit above the real market equilibrium.  Yes allowing costs to creep up will reduce the volumes sold but it will also increase the costs per unit.

Ironically what we as space enthusiasts should be hoping for is that SpaceX would be able to jack up it's prices.  That way they would have incentive to cut costs in order to maximize profit and other aerospace companies would want to compete with them in cost savings.  This would in turn lower prices long term as a functioning free market does.  But I don't think a functioning free market is possible in this situation.

I don't really have a conclusion here, it's just something I've been thinking about.

[alway]

I don't believe that will particularly be an issue for at least another decade or two. At this point, they aren't really ventures aimed at turning a big profit or anything of that sort; they're done by people who are already rich to some degree or another as a sort of big-budget hobby. Profit only ensures they will be stable endeavors, rather than being the goal. As Elon Musk stated when asked about it: if he wanted to make big profits, he would go back into the tech or financial industry. Their primary goal is to lower to-orbit costs to enable humanity to become a space-faring race. That, of course, may change as the industry establishes itself, but for now at least it isn't an issue.

The other thing to keep in mind is it isn't a supply and demand thing. It's more along the lines of a threshold-based model. Space tourism has existed for years; it's merely been expensive and troublesome to the point where aside from novelty trips for a couple select individuals, it was all but impossible. Reduce that cost and suddenly an entire industry open up. Or consider asteroid mining. If it is not economical to send up craft for mining purposes, there won't be any craft sent up. Make it economical, and suddenly there will be an entire industry vying for a chunk of the available spaceflight capability. Only once the threshold of those economics are crossed will more standard supply and demand kick in.

Also, more Lynx has been added to the OP. And yes, that pun was in fact too good to pass up.

[mainiac]

That paints somewhat of a race against the clock type situation.  This offers spaceflight a third wind now that the moonshot is long since past and we are past the era when commercial satellites were first showing the profitability.  How far will SpaceX manage to open up the range of possibilities before this third wind comes to an end?

[alway]

Second Falcon 9 flight to the ISS set for next month.

[PTTG??]

What's the current to-orbit cost of a pound? I saw one breathlessly enthusiastic article that suggested $850 for a falcon-line rocket, but that sounds way too cheap.

[10ebbor10]

What's the current to-orbit cost of a pound? I saw one breathlessly enthusiastic article that suggested $850 for a falcon-line rocket, but that sounds way too cheap.

The Falcon heavy, which is the cheapest one I could find info on, will have an estimated cost of 2204 dollar per kg to LEO.

[alway]

http://www.space.com/17847-private-spacex-rocket-test-space-station.html
Second launch to ISS set for Sunday at 8:35PM Eastern time. Dunno if there will be a live webcast or not.

[alway]

Launch is in approximately 1.5 hours. For those interested in watching, live webcast of the launch will be starting at around 7:35PM EST here: http://www.spacex.com/webcast/
Last I heard, weather conditions give it a 60% chance of launching tonight; I think the second launch window is some time tomorrow, and heard a figure of estimated 80% chance of good weather for launch then if tonight's doesn't happen.

edit: updated to 80% chance of favorable weather conditions tonight

[sneakey pete]

So i heard that it launched without problems. Its nice that it wasn't 20 months between launches this time. I wonder what their eventual launch rate will turn out to be, once you tak einto account NASA contracts, private contracts etc.

[alway]

So i heard that it launched without problems.

Well, aside from the engine exploding anyway.
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/10/08/spacex-falcon-9-lost-an-engine-on-the-way-up-dragon-on-its-way-to-iss/
Also apparently the second stage didn't do a second burn, so the secondary Orbconn satellite payload won't be in the correct orbit or somesuch. Though it's still set for the ISS rendevous.

Its nice that it wasn't 20 months between launches this time. I wonder what their eventual launch rate will turn out to be, once you tak einto account NASA contracts, private contracts etc.

They're planning the next one to be around the end of the year or really early in next year. From what their pre-launch press conference said, the next one is currently finishing test firing and such in Texas and will shortly be shipped to the cape for final launch preparations.

The other thing to keep an eye out for is their 'grasshopper' tests. They've been keeping them somewhat less public than the Falcon launches, as they are more or less just internal tech testing, but they're hoping to essentially turn a falcon rocket into something of a VTOL in which, after the stage separation, the first stage comes down with a powered, controlled landing for easy and rapid reuse.  Their goal is to reuse the entire rocket, so as to allow for much more rapid turn around time (and lower costs), since they won't need a new rocket built for each launch. At that point, the launch rate will be determined more by the demand for their services. Though that point is still quite a while away.


October 22: Successful Blue Origin test of their crew capsule escape system. http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/22/14623551-jeff-bezos-blue-origin-spaceship-company-aces-pad-escape-test

[alway]

A couple updates:
Bigelow got a $17.8M contract with NASA to develop a new, inflatable ISS module: http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2013-01/nasa-awards-bigelow-aerospace-178-million-inflatable-addition-iss
And, as you likely saw from more mainstream news sources, SpaceX has been testing its Grasshopper craft http://www.spacex.com/updates.php