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[GlyphGryph]

Shakerag was on this morning, but made no posts. Most of my next step rests on him. :/

Though Irony, definitely stick around.

[Servant Corps]

Scenario: you're scum and need to kill all the pilots to win. There is one claimed pilot left, meaning any sane bodyguard would protect him. Knowing that, would you still try to kill him, or would you rather try to get him lynched on the grounds that nobody tried to kill him?

All based on the assumptions that:
1) Scum would know that there was indeed such a thing as a sane bodyguard in this setup
2) The sane bodyguard would trust a man who rolefished and intentionally endangered other pilots by forcing them to reveal their existence and
3) A sane bodyguard has some variant that would deter scum from targeting him such as a Guardian (protect without dying), Observant (let the defended guy know the identity of the attacker), or Vengeful (attacker dies).

Scum would still try to kill you because there might not even be a sane bodyguard in this setup and if there was, then targeting the bodyguard would reveal more information about the setup and (if the bodyguard is not a Guardian) remove an obstacle to killing you next night. Because if the goal is to kill all the pilots to win, then you just need to spend 2 nightkills doing so, and then spend the days trying to lure out any unclaimed pilots.

Did you explicitly plan on being around at day end, then? Do you think it's alright to switch the lynch at the last moment like that?

Yes. Yes.

I'm still waiting for Shakerag for the "double-confirm".

[Shakerag]

NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO LURKING.

Bah, weekends don't count.  Which is good, because mine are nuts.

Anyway, skimmed over thread briefly.  IronyOwl is a Human Detective. 

Sleeping now.  Will be back tomorrow.

[GlyphGryph]

unvote

My moneys still on Servant or Urist...

Damn I wish I knew for sure sure if we had one more day. :/ We've got enough public investigative roles at this point we could pretty much guarantee success.

[Servant Corps]

I think we have until Monday.

unvote
Urist Imiknorris

Assuming I don't get lynched, who should I investigate tonight?

[Servant Corps]

And by tonight, I mean "the Run Phase".

[Jim Groovester]

WIFOM occurs if you start overthinking the potential moves of scum or trying to take into account very unlikely and rare possibilities...for example, thinking that Urist wasn't targeted because scum wanted to frame him for being scum, so therefore Urist's town, but that's what scum wants us to think, so of course Urist's scum. (All this, of course, assume that there is someone or some group that can control NKs...but since you guys seem to believe that, then looking at why people were killed...and why they were not is important.)

My case based off more than the fact he wasn't targeted, by the way. There was outcry about Urist's roleclaim back when he did it to try and rolefish and find other pilots, who then died off. I believed he used the pilot claim as a way to justify not lynching him, so he could not contribute. All of this, together, make Urist a scum candidate, not each individual aspect by itself.

I don't follow. You're denying that it's WIFOM, while exactly describing WIFOM. How is your argument not WIFOM?

Urist Imiknorris might be scum. Or maybe he was never targeted. Or maybe the action failed somehow. There are lots of possibilities, all equally possible, all equally unknowable. Why choose one over another? Why draw any conclusion at all from it?

Even if your case isn't based completely off of it, it's still a horrible reason and suspect to include it in any case.

Jim, what input can you offer about the discrepancy between your and Irony's claims?

I was pondering the possibilities myself, so I clarified with Meph about it. My action is perfectly reliable. I see anyone who physically targets a person I'm watching.

So either IronyOwl doesn't need to physically visit his target all of the time, like his flavor with Toaster might suggest. Or he's lying scum.

Aside from being kinda lurky, which is pretty usual, my read on IronyOwl doesn't read lying scum, so I'm going to guess bastard mechanics mucking with things.

Urist Imiknorris

Yeah, pretty sure you're scum.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Jim:

I was pondering the possibilities myself, so I clarified with Meph about it. My action is perfectly reliable. I see anyone who physically targets a person I'm watching.

So either IronyOwl doesn't need to physically visit his target all of the time, like his flavor with Toaster might suggest. Or he's lying scum.

Given that Irony claimed the same flavor for his inspections on Dariush and me, and you were able to see the former action, how much faith do you put in the first explanation?

Servant Corps: Let's take a trip down memory lane. Yours, of course. Specifically, the aborted attempt at Paranormal 4:

FOR CRYING OUT LOUD! Am I that much of a fool for the Wine In Front of Me?

Yes. Yes you are. And you apparently have been for longer than I've been on the forums.

[Toaster]

I'm working on a post analyzing all the claims, but let me throw down my raw data first so it's available concisely.

Spoiler: Claims (click to show/hide)

Role/Race claims:
Toaster-  Human MilSci (Vanilla)
Servant Corps- Human Agent (Kook)
Jim- Human Reporter
GG- Human Telepath
Shakerag- Agent Operative (Shield and 1shot scanner)
Urist I- Alien Survivor (Anti-tech field)
Irony- Unspecified Detective

Action claims  (UI and I have no actions):

SC:
-Run Phase 1 - Jim Groovester: Human
-Run Phase 2 - Urist Imiknorris: Alien
-Run Phase 3 - Bookthras: Human
-Run Phase 4 - Toaster: Human


Jim:
Run Phase 1-  followed IronyOwl. He visited Dariush.
Run Phase 2-  watched Urist Imiknorris, Zrk2 visited him.
Run Phase 3-  watched Urist Imiknorris, Bookthras visited him.
Run Phase 4-  follow Bookthras, visited Urist Imiknorris


Shakerag:
Irony is Human Detective


GG:
Tolyk: Protect
Toaster: Survive
Jim: Find
Book: Protect


Irony:
N1: Dariush was a Reporter
N2: Urist has No Role.
N3: Bookthras was an Observant Guard.
N4: Toaster is a Military Scientist.

[GlyphGryph]

Thanks Toaster, I was just going to ask if someone could do that.

Can we have a vote count?

[GlyphGryph]

Might want to include details such as pilot claims, though.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Might want to include details such as pilot claims, though.

Done.

Spoiler: Claims (click to show/hide)

Role/Race claims:
Toaster-  Human MilSci (Vanilla)
Servant Corps- Human Agent (Kook)
Jim- Human Reporter
GG- Human Telepath
Shakerag- Agent Operative (Shield and 1shot scanner, pilot)
Urist I- Alien Survivor (Anti-tech field, pilot)
Irony- Unspecified Detective

Action claims  (Toaster and I have no actions):

SC:
-Run Phase 1 - Jim Groovester: Human
-Run Phase 2 - Urist Imiknorris: Alien
-Run Phase 3 - Bookthras: Human
-Run Phase 4 - Toaster: Human


Jim:
Run Phase 1-  followed IronyOwl. He visited Dariush.
Run Phase 2-  watched Urist Imiknorris, Zrk2 visited him.
Run Phase 3-  watched Urist Imiknorris, Bookthras visited him.
Run Phase 4-  follow Bookthras, visited Urist Imiknorris


Shakerag:
Irony is Human Detective


GG:
Tolyk: Protect
Toaster: Survive
Jim: Find
Book: Protect


Irony:
N1: Dariush was a Reporter
N2: Urist has No Role.
N3: Bookthras was an Observant Guard.
N4: Toaster is a Military Scientist.

[Toaster]

Shake and UI are the only living claimed pilots.


This is all a bloody mess, by the way.  Claims and who they support:


Irony:  Supports Toaster and UI.  Conflicts with Jim.
SC:  Supports Toaster, Jim, and UI.
Jim:  Conflicts with Irony.  Indirectly supports GG (behavior of Book)
GG:  Supports Jim and Toaster.
Shakerag:  Supports Irony.

So far, Glyph, Servant, and Shakerag have no claims backing anything they've said up.  Irony and Jim conflict with each other on who did what N2.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Mod: If a Detective (say, IronyOwl) were to inspect a mad scientist or bodyguard, would he learn their specific role or just receive a generic Mad Scientist/Bodyguard result?

[GlyphGryph]

So, we've got two things that don't add up so far -

a) Urist is still alive, and if the claims are to be believed, no one actually tried to kill him at any point. In fact, no one tried to kill anyone Night 3 at all. Which seems... unlikely.

b) One of Jim or Irony is lying... unless, of course, there's some role, not in the role list, that hides actions. Thats doubtful, though. If Irony was lying, why would he not go with the already extant claims? That doesn't make much sense. Also, the night after...

The night after he found Bookthras visiting Urist, Bookthras died.

There was no kill against Urist, perhaps, because the scum was busy watching, trying to figure out who the doctor was. And then, by saying they were watching Bookthras, they would have an awfully good excuse for being seen with him the night he died...

* GlyphGryph narrows his eyes.

Jim, can you explain your reasoning for following Bookthras last night again? You said his visiting Urist had made him suspicious. Go more into depth about the thought process there.