Wonder if he [Ron Paul] supports the Three-Fifths Compromise....
New national poll data with two very different results:
Rasmussen, 2/14:
39% - Santorum
27% - Romney
15% - Gingrich
10% - Paul
It should be noted that Rasmussen is known for being one of the most inaccurate major pollsters, with a distinct Republican/conservative lean to their results. Shouldn't be such an issue in a GOP-only primary poll, but still....their methods are often unsound.
Gallup, 2/14:
33% - Romney
31% - Santorum
15% - Gingrich
8% - Paul
Either way, Romney is suddenly in a dogfight for the nomination. Word is he's filling up the advertising gun with money and getting ready to blanket the airwaves in Michigan and Arizona. Santorum will be a more difficult target than Gingrich though.
But here's the thing...if these races keep getting split say, 35/30/20/15, then I don't think any one candidate is going to get enough pledged delegates to win outright prior to the convention. The preponderance of proportional primaries (say
that five times fast) means this could drag out in a big way. The key prize down the stretch might be California: it's got the most delegates (172) and it's winner-take-all. Sort of.
To explain, the winner for the state gets X number of delegates, and then each candidates gets another X delegates for every Y Congressional districts they won. South Carolina was the same way, which is how Gingrich got 23 delegates, but Romney still eked out 2 for winning the area around Columbia. And although you'd think "There's absolutely no way a guy like Santorum could win California...." he's polling only 2 points behind Romney. And that was a week ago. The thing about California Republicans is that they tend to be more extreme than the average because they feel like a desperate outpost of red in the sea of blue that is the "People's Republic of California".
Almost all the other major states are proportional or non-binding. Texas, with its mammoth 155 delegates, is proportional this year for the first time.
Romney's current lead of 98 delegates to Santorum's 44 is in no way, shape or form insurmountable. After Arizona (which is a paltry 23 delegates), the next winner-take-all election (other than Puerto Rico) isn't until Apr 3, when Wisconsin and Maryland go on the same day as Texas. All Santorum has to do between now and then is run neck-and-neck with Romney, maybe scratching out a few wins here and there, and then take those two states and Romney's lead is gone. Now, neither would have enough delegates to win outright, but oh the fun that would bring about for the rest of the race. Especially in California, which doesn't go until June 5.
If Santorum stays viable and doesn't commit any huge gaffes, I think this race gets even uglier, I think the battle for California will go down in history as one of the most expensive (and rancorous) primary campaigns in history, and I think we *still* end up in a brokered convention. Which could split the party in two, regardless of whom they settle on as a candidate.
I wonder if Rick Santorum would endorse Dave Mustaine of Megadeth?
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/megadeth-singer-endorses-rick-santorum-calls-newt-gingrich-164220697.html
I...WHAT THE F**K??? Ok, Megadeth is officially dead to me. Seriously...WTF?