Okaaaay....so, how 'bout them primaries?!
[monster truck announcer voice]
TUESDAY TUESDAY TUESDAY!! It's the 2012 GOP New Hampshire Primaries!
The state where "Live Free Or Die" isn't just a threat, it's a motto!
SEE.....the Rominator, fighting to defend his home turf!
SEE.....Rick "Frothy" Santorum, as he brings his Christian Sharia tour to face the Ring of Syrup!
SEE.....actual Jon "Bigfoot" Huntsman sightings!
SEE....."Nitro" Newt Gingrich trying to remain relevant!
SEE.....Rick "F**k all y'all Yankees, I'm in South Carolina" Perry.....or not, because he's not even bothering to show up.
[/voice]
Seriously though....this is where the culture wars get put on the side burner for a day and we get to see what the semi-sane remnant of the GOP thinks. There's still plenty of people who've bought into the BS and hate Obama for reasons they just articulate, but at least it's not about God, guns and gays to them.
Latest aggregate polling numbers, courtesy of RCP:
Romney: 38.8%
Paul: 19.8%
Huntsman: 11.2%
Santorum: 11.2%
Gingrich: 9.2%
Perry: 1%
Obviously, Romney is expected to win NH and win big. There lies the danger of expectations. If things tighten suddenly and Romney only wins with say, 25% like he did in Iowa, it'll be seen as a sign of weakness and even though he wins, it'll be a strategic loss. I think he needs to pull at least 33% to satisfy expectations. It would be stunning to see a 5 point drop in a single day, but polls and votes don't always correlate neatly. And Romney, as the established front-runner is now the main target in the King-of-the-Hill type scenario that a primary creates. he's also made a few gaffes, such as comments that suggested only rich people should run for office (although I don't think that was the intent of the comments), and for saying that
he knows what it's like to worry if you're getting a pink slip. I think the "pink slip" comment could hang around and haunt him for a while, but it may be too late for it to do any real damage in NH.
Ron Paul appears to have a good hold on the #2 position, which will keep him in the thick of things going forward. Two consecutive top-3 finishes is a better-than-expected result for Paul at this point in the race, to be honest.
The interesting bit will be the knife-fight between Santorum and Huntsman for the #3 spot. Huntsman HAS to place in the top 3 here, or he might as well pack it up. NH is the sort of state tailor made for his style of (relatively) moderate, pragmatic Republicanism. if he loses the #3 slot to a Rick Santorum that has been regularly booed at campaign stops in the state, that's just not a good sign.
For Santorum on the other hand, this is his shot to prove that he has some kind of appeal beyond the social conservative wing. A top-3 finish validates the legitimacy of his campaign. A #4 finish in double-digits wouldn't be a bad thing either. If he winds up in single-digits, especially if he ends up behind Gingrich....I think that brings up serious questions of how far he can go beyond being a "niche" candidate in an overcrowded niche.
The big story may be the beginning of the end for Newt Gingrich. A month ago, Gingrich was polling 25% in NH, and closing in on Romney. Just a week ago, Gingrich was at least looking at a top-3 finish in NH, based on polls. Now he's in single digits and fading fast. Social conservatives in Iowa rejected him, now fiscal conservatives are rejecting him. If he fails to place here, and then fares poorly in South Carolina (where you'd hope he could at least count on his regional ties to boost him, but has plummeted in recent weeks and is now trailing Romney by 12 points) then he might go truly unhinged and we'll see another meltdown like we did early on where his campaign staff deserted him, fundraising dried up, etc.
Rick Perry....I think he's decided not to bother campaigning north of the Mason-Dixon. Considering he's only pulling 5% in South Carolina....sorry Aqizzar--you're getting your governor back.
So to sum up:
Romney has to win big to meet expectations
Santorum vs. Huntsman to stay alive
Gingrich and Perry probably dead men walking