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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 768888 times)

Sirus

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #660 on: January 09, 2012, 03:59:49 am »

Careful, we're gonna get the frowny dog again!
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G-Flex

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #661 on: January 09, 2012, 04:00:16 am »

I just don't think that the right to go to a restaurant run by a very obviously racist person is really all that much of a right.

Would you actually go to a restaurant run by a racist? Probably not. And if you would, then you're probably a racist too. Even if they couldn't disallow people of the "wrong" race, they're still racist.

The only difference that it makes is putting racism out of sight and out of mind. As long as it's not public, it doesn't exist as far as most people are concerned.

Do you have any grasp of American history or racial integration?

Imagine being in a town where virtually no restaurants, banks, or other businesses allowed you in, because you were the wrong skin color. This was, at one point, very much the case. Imagine that, then tell us again how legalizing racial desegregation/criminalizing discrimination doesn't involve actually important rights.

And yes, it is an important step in actually curbing real racism. If you force more integration via legislation/amendments like that, you force more commingling of races in general, cultural and socioeconomic barriers start falling, and people of different races get more used to being around one another. It is not an empty gesture.
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KaelGotDwarves

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #662 on: January 09, 2012, 04:50:45 am »

Yes, mainiac, you say that racism as a social controversy is over. It is not. Racial discrimination is still everywhere.

To tie it into this thread: Herman Cain, former Republican presidential candidate made comments about muslims needing to do a special "loyalty oath" under his administration. Newt Gingrich actually said "black people should get off food stamps and demand paychecks" as if insinuating that black people are welfare bums increases his elect-ability among a certain electorate.

Racism is still a hot-button issue and the battle against it must be continued to be fought.

Sheb

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #663 on: January 09, 2012, 05:34:06 am »

And yet, if you go and ask them, they'll deny being racists, inventing some weird and stupid excuse. Racism and racists still exists, and I doubt they'll ever disappear entirely, but you cannot just say "I'm racist and proud of it." anymore. And that's a victory.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #665 on: January 09, 2012, 09:42:31 am »

Okaaaay....so, how 'bout them primaries?!

[monster truck announcer voice]
TUESDAY TUESDAY TUESDAY!! It's the 2012 GOP New Hampshire Primaries!
The state where "Live Free Or Die" isn't just a threat, it's a motto!

SEE.....the Rominator, fighting to defend his home turf!
SEE.....Rick "Frothy" Santorum, as he brings his Christian Sharia tour to face the Ring of Syrup!
SEE.....actual Jon "Bigfoot" Huntsman sightings!
SEE....."Nitro" Newt Gingrich trying to remain relevant!
SEE.....Rick "F**k all y'all Yankees, I'm in South Carolina" Perry.....or not, because he's not even bothering to show up.
[/voice]

Seriously though....this is where the culture wars get put on the side burner for a day and we get to see what the semi-sane remnant of the GOP thinks. There's still plenty of people who've bought into the BS and hate Obama for reasons they just articulate, but at least it's not about God, guns and gays to them.

Latest aggregate polling numbers, courtesy of RCP:
Romney: 38.8%
Paul: 19.8%
Huntsman: 11.2%
Santorum: 11.2%
Gingrich: 9.2%
Perry: 1%

Obviously, Romney is expected to win NH and win big. There lies the danger of expectations. If things tighten suddenly and Romney only wins with say, 25% like he did in Iowa, it'll be seen as a sign of weakness and even though he wins, it'll be a strategic loss. I think he needs to pull at least 33% to satisfy expectations. It would be stunning to see a 5 point drop in a single day, but polls and votes don't always correlate neatly. And Romney, as the established front-runner is now the main target in the King-of-the-Hill type scenario that a primary creates. he's also made a few gaffes, such as comments that suggested only rich people should run for office (although I don't think that was the intent of the comments), and for saying that he knows what it's like to worry if you're getting a pink slip. I think the "pink slip" comment could hang around and haunt him for a while, but it may be too late for it to do any real damage in NH.

Ron Paul appears to have a good hold on the #2 position, which will keep him in the thick of things going forward. Two consecutive top-3 finishes is a better-than-expected result for Paul at this point in the race, to be honest.

The interesting bit will be the knife-fight between Santorum and Huntsman for the #3 spot. Huntsman HAS to place in the top 3 here, or he might as well pack it up. NH is the sort of state tailor made for his style of (relatively) moderate, pragmatic Republicanism. if he loses the #3 slot to a Rick Santorum that has been regularly booed at campaign stops in the state, that's just not a good sign.

For Santorum on the other hand, this is his shot to prove that he has some kind of appeal beyond the social conservative wing. A top-3 finish validates the legitimacy of his campaign. A #4 finish in double-digits wouldn't be a bad thing either. If he winds up in single-digits, especially if he ends up behind Gingrich....I think that brings up serious questions of how far he can go beyond being a "niche" candidate in an overcrowded niche.

The big story may be the beginning of the end for Newt Gingrich. A month ago, Gingrich was polling 25% in NH, and closing in on Romney. Just a week ago, Gingrich was at least looking at a top-3 finish in NH, based on polls. Now he's in single digits and fading fast. Social conservatives in Iowa rejected him, now fiscal conservatives are rejecting him. If he fails to place here, and then fares poorly in South Carolina (where you'd hope he could at least count on his regional ties to boost him, but has plummeted in recent weeks and is now trailing Romney by 12 points) then he might go truly unhinged and we'll see another meltdown like we did early on where his campaign staff deserted him, fundraising dried up, etc.

Rick Perry....I think he's decided not to bother campaigning north of the Mason-Dixon. Considering he's only pulling 5% in South Carolina....sorry Aqizzar--you're getting your governor back.

So to sum up:
Romney has to win big to meet expectations
Santorum vs. Huntsman to stay alive
Gingrich and Perry probably dead men walking
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #666 on: January 09, 2012, 09:46:07 am »

Yes, mainiac, you say that racism as a social controversy is over. It is not. Racial discrimination is still everywhere.

Did you not read my repeated clarifications here?  Racism still exists.  However it is nearly universally agreed that it is bad behavior.  Thus racism as a controversy is over.  There is no controversy over racism, (nearly) everyone agrees that it is bad.  This is in contrast to things like homophobia or nativism where many people consider them valid viewpoints.

Contrast this to 60 years ago.  If 60 years ago you said "I wouldn't ever eat at a whites only lunch counter" you would be seen as taking sides.  In some areas of the country, this would lead to being a social outcast or even getting lynched.  60 years ago, we weren't raised to be tolerant, racism was actively taught to children.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #667 on: January 09, 2012, 09:53:54 am »

Guys, seriously...progressive rage thread is a GREAT place to talk about this. Election thread....not so much.
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Willfor

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #668 on: January 09, 2012, 11:14:35 am »





Honestly, I'm hoping for four more years of Democrats in the US regardless of the Republican candidate. You may not realize it, but it has a solid effect on how politics play out up here regardless of how effective it is to have in your own country.
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Sheb

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #669 on: January 09, 2012, 11:17:13 am »

You canadian? Can You expand?
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Willfor

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #670 on: January 09, 2012, 11:22:11 am »

Yes, I'm Canadian. Basically, the US is our largest trading partner whether we like it or not. Right now, keeping our economy going requires large amounts of trade with the US, and this requires Stephan Harper to remain on good terms with the US administration. So long as the Democrats are in office, I'm only tangentially concerned about the demands being placed on us. If, however, the Americans elect a Republican government, I have no doubt that Canada is going to take an even sharper turn right as well.

And then all the people who will joke about moving here are going to be in for one hell of joke themselves.

By the way, stop making us try to adopt crazy copyright measures, please/thank you.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2012, 11:24:02 am by Willfor »
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GlyphGryph

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #671 on: January 09, 2012, 11:33:20 am »

Don't blame the Americans - our country is just the first country the big media companies conquered - mostly because they knew they could use it as such an effective stick against all the others.

Seriously, why do other countries think listening to the US government is actually a good idea? I mean, those countries that basically tell us to ship off on the copyright front all seem to be doing alright.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #672 on: January 09, 2012, 11:34:40 am »

I figure Canadian politicians can always just point at America and say, "Look folks...do you want to be like that? Do you? That's what I thought, eh."

Which creates two main groupings: people that want more America in their Canada, and people who want less America. The Conservatives seem to be the former group and the Liberal/NDP as the latter. But that's a very gross oversimplification obviously.
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Lysabild

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #673 on: January 09, 2012, 02:16:39 pm »

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Andrew425

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #674 on: January 09, 2012, 02:18:39 pm »

As a Canadian I can tell you that that is correct. Interestingly enough the Conservatives won the last election with a majority.
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