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[Think0028]

If we do lynch a witch today, I am very willing to kill Powder Miner, but I'd also be willing to let Toaster take the lead on investigation before I start wantonly murdering people.

[Toaster]

On paper, it sounds like a good idea, but let me read over first.

PFP

[Darvi]

Since it's Christmas, everybody gets to win!

But to get the super-special-extra victory, you still have to fulfil your wincons.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Merry Christmas everyone. I've been thinking about this, and I might have a plan to secure town victory:

There are three possible scum: Native, Jack, and Powder Miner. Two of them are scum, all three if Native's right about a third elf. I don't think Jack's the third witch because of his last-minute vote on McArathos yesterday so I'm willing to bet it's PM. My idea is to lynch Native the nigh-confirmed witch today and have Think kill Powder Miner tonight. Tomorrow, we lynch Think (because it'd be MyLo if he's an SK) and then D7 Jack and I inevitably crossvote and Toaster calls the game based on his inspection results. If Jack and Think are both town, it ends tonight with PM's death. If Think's an SK and Jack's town, it ends tomorrow with Think's lynch. If Jack's scum, it ends D7 when Toaster and I lynch him.

Thoughts? Concerns? Possibilities I'm forgetting?

[Think0028]

The biggest thing I'm worried about is if the elves have been able to continue converting even after I killed NUKE, assuming they're a cult as I'm beginning to finally suspect. (The thing that's pushing me over is Toaster's inspection of Jim and my kill of Jim where he behaved substantially different in death than NUKE did). If so, then they would have two members right now, along with the two surviving witches. If this is true, then... well, honestly, Town's fucked! There would be no way to escape that, as getting rid of both elves would have witches outnumbering town, and killing one and then killing a witch would have the elves outnumbering town with a conversion. So it's not even a situation to consider, as we'd be well and truly dead if that was true.

Thus, I'm down with this plan. What's the worst that could happen? NativeForeigner.

[Think0028]

KotM paranoia kicking in, analyzing what if Urist I and Jack are the witches, makes me think I shouldn't kill Powder tonight if Native isn't a witch. While Toaster's investigations suggest strongly to the contrary for Urist and general behavior suggests otherwise for Jack in my opinion, I like to be certain about my plans for certain town victory. Thoughts?

[Urist Imiknorris]

If Native somehow flips non-witch, we no-lynch and you no-kill until Toaster's thoroughly inspected everyone?

[NativeForeigner]

Merry Christmas everyone. I've been thinking about this, and I might have a plan to secure town victory:

There are three possible scum: Native, Jack, and Powder Miner. Two of them are scum, all three if Native's right about a third elf. I don't think Jack's the third witch because of his last-minute vote on McArathos yesterday so I'm willing to bet it's PM. My idea is to lynch Native the nigh-confirmed witch today and have Think kill Powder Miner tonight. Tomorrow, we lynch Think (because it'd be MyLo if he's an SK) and then D7 Jack and I inevitably crossvote and Toaster calls the game based on his inspection results. If Jack and Think are both town, it ends tonight with PM's death. If Think's an SK and Jack's town, it ends tomorrow with Think's lynch. If Jack's scum, it ends D7 when Toaster and I lynch him.

Thoughts? Concerns? Possibilities I'm forgetting?

I flip town, that brings it down to Toaster being the last Townie (if Think is an SK, which I'm starting to think he is since he jumped on this plan so quickly), town loses. Or, if Think is a Vig, the three anti-town (the two witches and you) lynch Think, town loses. I'm also starting to get curious as to why you seem to think Jack is town just because he hopped onto the McArathos wagon. Have you never heard of bussing? It's quite possible you and Jack are both witches, now that I think about it. Jack has been soft on you the entire time and you seem convinced he's town because he voted a witch (it's called bussing, look it up). You're certainly missing a lot of possibilities here. The best course of action would to, again, no-lynch, have Toaster inspect you three times, have Think !none tonight. In the interest of self-preservation, Think will almost certainly comply (lest he wishes to get insta-lynched).

Once we lynch you for being anti-town, we can take this day-by-day, taking out targets with 100% certainty due to Toasters inspect. Alternatively, we lynch Think just in case and take it day-by-day. If he's a vig, he'll still win when town does. If he's SK, he'll be out of the picture.

[NativeForeigner]

If Native somehow flips non-witch, we no-lynch and you no-kill until Toaster's thoroughly inspected everyone?

This is awfully dependent on Think being a vig rather than an SK. You really only seem concerned with getting me out of the picture, probably only because I'm onto you. Why wait until we're one step closer to losing to thoroughly inspect everyone?

[Toaster]

Okay.

Spoiler: The Survivors (click to show/hide)

Urist Imiknorris - Claimed villager.  Implied by flavor to be town.
Think0028 - Claimed vig.
Powder Miner - AWOL.
NativeForeigner - Claimed villager. Implied by flavor to be scum, probably witch.
Toaster - Claimed Inquisitor.  Backed up by Vector's death.
Jack AT - Claimed villager.

While I am wary of millers, I am fairly confident of Native's scummitude-  I still suspect him from earlier*.


Due to the NK pattern, it seems the witches have no standard kill, much as they didn't last game.  I wouldn't rule out some sort of one-shot kill, though.  I don't believe in the elf-recruit theory.


Here's my action proposal.  Let's no-lynch today, and tonight Think kills Native.  Doing it that way (instead of a lynch-nokill) ensures Think is doing what we want him to do, instead of giving him free reign on the chance that he's an SK.  I'll start triple-investigating the remaining people tonight, and we'll go from there.  If Native survives the night, we'll have some hard questions for Jack.  If I turn up knifed, lynch Think and probably Native.

Everyone should restate their top suspect and why, though.  I'll start.

*Native, because of low activity, using his voting an elf as a defense, and above-mentioned flavor.  I also distrust his insistence that elves are a convert-based group and his reasoning I don't see on Urist I being a convert.

[NativeForeigner]

That still seems a little risky to me, I'd much rather (duh) just subject myself to a full round of investigating during the night which should prove I'm not actually scum and ask Think to !none. If he doesn't, he gets lynched and we continue.

[Toaster]

You have three units of investigation already.  What more do you want?

[NativeForeigner]

You have three units of investigation already.  What more do you want?

I thought you only investigated me twice last night. The way I understood it, you receive the best investigations when you inspect someone three times in one night, not spread out over subsequent nights. This would make sense flavor-wise because you are spending more time watching the person in the night. I feel it might be worth asking the mod if you don't know for sure.

[Think0028]

No, I'm pretty sure from last game that it was a stacking effect that caps at 3 investigations.

That said, I'll follow Toaster's lead and no-lynch. I'll kill Native tonight, barring any surprises.

My top suspect at the moment is Native as well, for his current behavior (focusing particularly on possible third-parties, which, while an accurate analysis, shows a scum mindset -- see my behavior in Third Party Mafia) and for Toaster's results on him combined with the impression I got last game that millers knew they were millers ahead of time.

Native: Do you think Urist I is the third elf by conversion or by initial setup? If by conversion, then was Jim not converted (flying against the flavor both I and Toaster have received), or did Jim do the conversion, suggesting an extremely powerful cult that is almost unstoppable? If by initial setup, how does your argument of Urist I suddenly taking action hold up?

[NativeForeigner]

Think: By conversion. I'm not really sure what you're trying to ask with the second half of your question. I'm pretty sure Jim started the game as an elf. Could you be more clear?

Also, I don't see how focusing on a third party is a scum mindset in this game, especially when I'm so sure of it. In other games, it's completely understandable how it would be a scum mindset, but in WC, the scumteam lacks a kill, making hunting any anti-town faction acceptable in my eyes. Also, from my understanding of millers, most millers don't know they're millers.