Awesome work with the testing, Stronghammer. This is really cool stuff!
If I may make a constructive critique:
From the sounds of it, the testing occurs on either a 1v1 or 2v2 or 3v3 etc. basis. As in there is an equal number of goblins as there are creatures being tested. The issue with this is that if there is any appreciable difference in deadliness, the even moderately deadlier creature will win virtually every time. This is because, if numbers are even, the goblins cannot hope to overcome said disadvantage. As it is right now, I would completely want mounted brettonians/champions/chaos warriors to beat equal numbers of goblins every time (although I can't see cultists, which are smaller than humans and much more fragile and weak winning so much)--all that is being measured right now is if a creature is actually deadlier than a goblin, not how much deadlier than a goblin they are.
Another issue would be the lack of weaponry or armour (although I understand that is a huge pain). When creatures get bigger, they become rapidly more difficult to kill without weapons and size becomes an even bigger factor than it normally would be.
Not having skills means that some of my Chaos stuff (which start out will skill) will have an insane advantage that would not exist in "da real world", as most enemies (especially sieges) tend to have developed skills. Although the skills thing probably isn't needed to be changed in the testing.
My suggestion is to continuously increase the ratio of goblins:X (X being the tested creature). Once the goblins win 10 fights in a row (running something like 50 sims before changing the ratio), we know the critical number of goblins to reliably beat that kind of creature. This would give us an idea of about how dangerous that creature actually is, with goblins as an easy reference point. I call this the Critical Goblin Horde Index, or CGHI, and am hoping to be nominated for the Nobel peace prize with it.
For example, I ran a quick simulation with dwarves and goblins. When CGHI ratio was 1:1 (5 goblins to 5 dwarves), the goblins won half the time (just like you found). As soon as I increased the CGHI ratio to 2:1 (10 goblins to 5 dwarves), the dwarves lost immediately, making the CGHI rating for a dwarf 2 (as it takes 2 goblins for every one dwarf to beat that dwarf virtually every time).
I will begin doing some testing like this with basic weapons being used (although the weapons will essentially add a whole other variable, it will greatly reduce the amplifying effect size has). This new test type will be called the Weapon-Adjusted Critical Goblin Horde Index (WACGHI). I'm sure to get that nomination now!
A further test type could be to adjust for armour, and then another for skill, and then another for all of them together. This would be the most accurate way to actually gauge the power of a creature instead of seeing if it is simply stronger than a goblin by an appreciable margin.
PRELIMINARY TESTING (others feel free to use this means of testing):
Equipment used:
-Iron shortswords for all subjects
Skills:
-All subjects boosted to Proficient Fighter if they were not already.
Subjects:
-5 Brettonians, Mounted:
Initial testing results:
Subjects easily dispatched 5, 10, and 15 goblins, sustaining some injuries throughout. Further rounds of testing will commence.
Initial Conclusion:
Mounted Brettonians possess a Skill-and-Equipment-Adjusted Critical Goblin Horde Index of at least 3.
Interesting New Results:
As soon as the CGHI ratio was increased from 3 to 4 (20 goblins to 5 brettonians), the Brettonians were killed in every fight, with goblins taking moderate (under 50%) casualties. Fine tuning will now occur to find the precise number.
Revised Information:
Spacing seems to be critical.
My initial test with 20 goblins (resulting in a decisive goblin victory) was conflicting with a new result using 20 goblins wherein the mounted knights won with moderate-severe casualties. In the initial test, the knights were spaced a single tile apart, in the more recent ones, they were shoulder to shoulder. In both tests, goblins were 7 tiles away shoulder to shoulder. It is possible that fighting shoulder to shoulder is greatly advantageous. Further testing ongoing to test this spacing hypothesis.
CONFIRMED:
Spacing is enormously important. Over 5 fights with the spacing of the brettonians tweaked each time, their spacing has proved integral in their victory over 20 goblins. In some cases, when placed far from allies, a knight would be quickly overwhelmed and killed, allowing his killers to proceed to gang up on other knights, rapidly killing them. Goblins were able to achieve quick victories when the brettonians were spread more than a tile or two apart but would lose when the brettonians were fighting shoulder to shoulder. All further testing must take place with all participants shoulder to shoulder to eliminate that variable. Distance between the two lines will remain at 7 spaces.
I am also considering a change in how the goblins are spaced. Brettonians continue to win fights when the goblins are even up to 25 in number. I could observe that the brettonians would quickly kill the goblins immediately in front of them whilst the goblin's flanks attempted to wheel around. This is fascinating.
I will be conducting experiments with spacing now between goblins to determine which formation is optimal.