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[MetalSlimeHunt]

I was mostly just copying what Bouchart said to make a more hopeful comparison. This actually has little, if any, simmilarity to the American Revolution.

While there is a high potential for this to go wrong, I admit, millions have turned out at these protests in the name of a democratic government. I think that, while there will be problems, this will turn out to be a good thing. Perhaps I'm wrong. But I've got nothing to lose by hoping that the world can change for the better.

[nenjin]

We don't see anything like it happen anywhere else. France descended into bloody anarchy, then rose into an Imperial dictatorship, before collapsing and returning to a Monarchy, before collapsing and returning to an Imperial dictatorship under the same dictator, before collapsing and returning to the Monarchy again, before collapsing into a republic, and so on.

We told them not to build it on a swamp, but would they listen? Nnnnnnnuuuuuuuuuu.

[Jackrabbit]

Well I have to applaude the integrity of the Egyptian population.
When looters hit the national museum, they formed a blockade to halter these criminals. When the police left the population to do as they like, people took to the streets to direct traffic and stop accedents.

Sometimes political turmoil happens, but it speeks praise of the Egyptian people how they conduct themselves.

I read a particularly funny story today, about how looters looted the gift shop and several believed they actually had bona fide artifacts.

Good times.

[olemars]

These revolts are happening in areas of the world with rather small middle classes, and huge underclasses of desperate, uneducated, illiterate, sick, hungry people.  Those underclasses don't care for abstract political philosophy.  They need staple goods.  And they won't have the patience to sort through a messy transition to representative government.

You don't really know a lot about these "areas", do you?

[Jackrabbit]

I certainly don't. Enlighten me.

[Rose]

I just think it would be hilarious if Google takes over.

[olemars]

Strong rumors at the moment that muba is stepping down and army taking over (not the vice president), which would be a repeat of what happened in Tunisia.

[Aqizzar]

A few days ago, Mubarak resigned from titular head of the National Democratic Party.  The new titular head has intimated to the Associated Press, along with sources within the presidential offices to NBC and Al Jaz, that Mubarak will indeed resign as President, possibly within the day.  Newly opointed VP Omar Suleiman, former head of the intelligence agency, will take over as President, and has already promised he will not run for office in September.  Protesters are continuing to demand his resignation as well, along with the entire upper cabinet.

If I had been a faster typist, I could have had first notice.  But I gots the links.

[Ampersand]

A lot of people say this but I'm inclined to think that this will lead down the path of the American Revolution of 1776. The British control of the Thirteen Colonies was overthrown and a democratic federal government installed, which to this day has not been overthrown by violent radicals and replaced with a totalitarian regime.

The American revolution took place in a geographically isolated, unimportant backwater, and was instigated and led by wealthy businessmen who already effectively controlled everything. We don't see anything like it happen anywhere else. France descended into bloody anarchy, then rose into an Imperial dictatorship, before collapsing and returning to a Monarchy, before collapsing and returning to an Imperial dictatorship under the same dictator, before collapsing and returning to the Monarchy again, before collapsing into a republic, and so on. England just slowly changed over time. Germany was overthrown by external powers and had a puppet regime put in place on both sides, though it's since grown out of it. We see, in some cases, long term stability after a revolution, but always in the hands of a particularly skilled dictator. Cuba is kind of the best case scenario we're looking at, and my bet's on it ending up much worse.

Learning from history in this case is not going to work. There is a very distinct difference between now and then, and that is that both sides know that Violence is not a real option. The potential loss of International sympathy by the protestors, and the loss of diplomatic face by the government is so great in the modern age that neither a large scale uprising, nor a large scale crackdown are possible, particularly in somewhat modern states like Egypt.

If you do want to look to history at all, the best case I can refer to is Turkey, which after Centuries of rule under the House of Osmanli as the Ottoman Empire, reformed into a modern state with intense safeguards against the rise of Theocratic power. Though, not without severe external pressures.

Also, damn you Aqizzar for reporting in faster than I could.

[olemars]

I think the army decided to intervene in the background today, after VP Suleiman started rambling about imposing martial law and using the army against the protesters. Lots of conflicting reports right now, NDP saying that Mubarak will be transfering powers to Suleiman, while the army says they will be in charge and are proclaiming various decrees. Everything points to a desperate power struggle going on.

EDIT: Haha, the information minister knows his role, so he's saying that all this is lies and that Mubarak is the One True President and will stay.

EDIT2: Latest rumour, army is "escorting" Mubarak to Sharm El Sheik (a red sea resort town).

[Aqizzar]

Yeah, apparently Joe Biden, Omar Suleiman, and the Military Council have been arguing back and forth by phone and in-person for several days now, trying to decide exactly how this is supposed to play out.  It's effectively a bloodless coup coup d'etat, since Mubarak is the head of the Military Council, and was certainly not party to these discussions.  The military high command has made it clear that they are tired and worried of watching their country collapse, and recognize that as long as the buck technically stops with Mubarak, things will not go back to normal.  Exactly who will be left in charge when all is said and done is certainly not yet clear.

Meanwhile, that Google exec who got arrested is Tweeting his fingers bloody in celebration and credit-claiming.  But he can have his fun, he's definitely taken his licks for it.

[Nadaka]

Yes. looks like things are moving along now. Hopefully it moves in a better direction.

[olemars]

Spoiler: This just doesn't look healthy (click to show/hide)

Every little dot there is a human

[Eugenitor]

It's a people-clot!

Mubarak is talking about himself doing things in the future with power. This is not going to end well.

[Aqizzar]

Yeah... He's not stepping down.  He's insisting he still has a duty to protect the constitution by retaining his power as President.  Asking otherwise is to let Egypt be ruled by foreign whims.  He won't run again in September, but he won't go anywhere until then.

Unless the Supreme Military Council makes him of course.  Holy shit, this is about to get wild.