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Author Topic: The Quantum Mafia - Night 2: Replacement needed  (Read 15536 times)

Vector

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2009, 01:21:23 pm »
No, you're right.  Of course you can't lynch your partner by accident... silly me.

Unvote.  I agree about the no lynch.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

ToonyMan

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #46 on: September 15, 2009, 02:16:40 pm »
Everyone lynch Toony!
That way we can get the game rolling.

Thinking about it.....nah.  I would do it if it wasn't in bad taste.

No lynch.
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Leafsnail

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #47 on: September 15, 2009, 02:19:30 pm »
As far as I can tell, each scum team (we're all in two) gets a potential kill each night.  When a mafia member is lynched and flipped, the 8 potential scum teams become 2 (the two that person was in).  If one of the members of those team is NK'd, then we'll have an 100% confirmed scum.

No Lynch for now.
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Mr.Person

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #48 on: September 15, 2009, 02:31:12 pm »
God, there's a LOT of gamestates. I'm at 288, and I'm 1/4 of the way done. So there should be a total of 1152 game states, if my math is right. Somebody check me on this.

FAKEEDIT: Leafsnail, anybody can be with anybody on a scum team now.
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Youtube video of the year, all years.
Quote from: dragonshardz on March 02, 2011, 08:15:07 am
Hmm...I've never been a big fan of CCGs - I mean, I did and still do collect Pokemon cards, but I never got heavily into the battling and trading thing.

By definition that makes you a fan since you still buy them.

Frelock

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #49 on: September 15, 2009, 02:32:44 pm »
Personally, I'm inclined to lynch as early and as often as possible.  Only once we trim down some possibilities can we really start gathering information down at night.  If we wait too long, then everyone will be killed off by the scum.  No matter who we lynch, we actually have an equal chance of hitting scum.  If we wait to tomorrow, we'll have the same chance, and if we hit scum, a townie dies.  We have to take this game, and begin to force it into some substantial situation from which we can begin to gather information.

Vote Leafsnail
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Mr.Person

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #50 on: September 15, 2009, 02:33:58 pm »
Quote from: Mr.Person on September 15, 2009, 02:31:12 pm
God, there's a LOT of gamestates. I'm at 288, and I'm 1/4 of the way done. So there should be a total of 1152 game states, if my math is right. Somebody check me on this.

FAKEEDIT: Leafsnail, anybody can be with anybody on a scum team now.

Actually, scratch that. I'm understating the number of state by at least another 4x. Back to Excel!
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Youtube video of the year, all years.
Quote from: dragonshardz on March 02, 2011, 08:15:07 am
Hmm...I've never been a big fan of CCGs - I mean, I did and still do collect Pokemon cards, but I never got heavily into the battling and trading thing.

By definition that makes you a fan since you still buy them.

Leafsnail

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #51 on: September 15, 2009, 02:41:44 pm »
I was sent two potential scum teams in my pm, along with two potential quick topics.  Have we cancelled that idea now?
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Mr.Person

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #52 on: September 15, 2009, 02:47:14 pm »
OK, my guess for total gamestates is now 2016, because there's 72 gamestates per mafia pair, and 28 possible mafia pairs.

Now, how exactly is mafia killing going to work? Since there's 2 people, does it only count if both members pick the same person? Is there a "head" mafia? If so, that doubles the number of gamestates.
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Youtube video of the year, all years.
Quote from: dragonshardz on March 02, 2011, 08:15:07 am
Hmm...I've never been a big fan of CCGs - I mean, I did and still do collect Pokemon cards, but I never got heavily into the battling and trading thing.

By definition that makes you a fan since you still buy them.

Mr.Person

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #53 on: September 15, 2009, 02:56:27 pm »
Alright, my math is way wrong. I'm going to shut up, promise. Ignore every number I've spat out, I've been so wrong it hurts. Feel free to find the real number using nCr, I don't feel like figuring it out right now.
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Youtube video of the year, all years.
Quote from: dragonshardz on March 02, 2011, 08:15:07 am
Hmm...I've never been a big fan of CCGs - I mean, I did and still do collect Pokemon cards, but I never got heavily into the battling and trading thing.

By definition that makes you a fan since you still buy them.

Leafsnail

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #54 on: September 15, 2009, 02:57:18 pm »
I'm pretty sure there are only 8 potential mafias, Mr Person.
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Vector

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #55 on: September 15, 2009, 03:11:13 pm »
Wait, we're asking for the total number of possible scumteams, or what?

As you ascertained, that's 8-choose-2.  So... 8!/6!2! = 28 possible scumteams.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

ToonyMan

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #56 on: September 15, 2009, 03:12:09 pm »
Yep.  Factors are fun.
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Pandarsenic

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #57 on: September 15, 2009, 04:37:13 pm »
This is a mess.

No lynch plx.
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major_sephiroth

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #58 on: September 15, 2009, 04:41:12 pm »
Jumpin' on dis No lynch.
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Vector

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Re: The Quantum Mafia - Day 1 begins
« Reply #59 on: September 15, 2009, 07:49:25 pm »
Arghblarghle.

So, we've got a couple of options here.

1. We off someone today, with a 25% chance of their being scum.

If scum -> good for town!  Well-done, town~
If town -> cuts on the number of PMs we have to send out (let's be honest, here...)
               1 townie dead
No lynch -> 10-11 PMs apiece.  RedWarrior0 is inundated by almost 90 PMs during the night phase.

2. We off someone tomorrow, with a 25% chance of their being scum.

If scum -> 1 townie dies due to quantum, still pretty good for town
If town -> cuts down on the number of PMs, but when we finally get a scum we will be down at least 3 town.
No lynch -> seriously, are we this stupid?

Sooo.  This seems pretty clear-cut to me.  To be most fair, we should probably lynch neither one of the best players nor one of the worst, because none of us know if we will be scum or town in the future.

The problem is that I'm not sure who to go with.  Will get back to you with this one later.


Further questions.

Suppose A is a doctor, B is a townie, and C is a scum (inna final analysis).

D1: A quantum-protects B.  C quantum-kills B.
N1: C is lynched and flips scum.  B dies and flips town.
D2: A is lynched and flips town doctor.

Serious Problem: B.... returns from the dead?
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".
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