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[TricMagic]

Apparently misread something in the analysis of last game. So yeah, 1 person dead by town, 1 person dead by mafia, and 1 lynch on day 1.

... How is this defense against no lynching again..

[Imp]

Hey, Tric.

I'm really confused by what you're saying, and I really, really want you to explain your understanding and thinking to me.

Where you say this:

Also, 1 townie and 1 mafia dead is GREAT Imp. Why are you implyng otherwise?

About 1 townie and 1 mafia dead is GREAT, I agree.  Any town win is GREAT.  Where have I implied otherwise?  To my understanding, I'm definitely considering what everyone is saying and pointing out problems I see where I see them.  Plans that I don't think will lead to a town win are a problem.  Plans that we as a group think are less likely to lead to a town win are fine to discuss as we consider everything we can.

But I really wanna focus here, what exactly did I say that made you say "Why are you implyng otherwise?" about "1 townie and 1 mafia dead is GREAT"?

I never meant that, never thought I said that.  It might be really helpful for us to understand and both explain any thinking that might lead to confusion - and I am confused and concerned that you have that understanding about what I am saying, because I'm not saying it.

OP says there is 1 mafia, so why do you imply another?

Again, I'm completely mystified.  I think there is one mafia.  I think I've only said statements that mean there is one mafia.

I really want you to walk us through what you read and what you thought that made you think I was implying this too.

When I look at what you quoted from me:

1

I am not going to vote you in a game with someone not even spoken yet, so little time, and so early in the day, with 3 to hammer, but wow, I really, really need help to understand how you are playing like town, please.

2

Sof, in the off chance our scum isn't Tric, do you have any plans or ideas what to do while we wait for Tric's answer from Jack?

1 is me thinking, "We have hammers and sof already voted Tric.  I won't put the second vote because 3 is hammer and we need to talk."  I'm also worried about what the shoot dynamics might look like if a town threw the third vote for any reason, if Tric flips town the hammerer might not be the scum but might get shot twice by the other two townies thinking that was scum, leaving the scum to kill a third town, and we need to discuss, not dive headfirst into shoot-shenanigans.

1 is also me saying, "Tric, you look seriously like scum to me.  Please explain what you are doing."

I note you haven't done that yet.  And I am finding you increasingly confusing and you are misreading me further and in new ways and directions.  That looks really scummy to me, and does not look like town to me.  So I am again asking you to please show me scumhunting, which maybe you are doing, but with 'facts' and interpretations that I need help to connect to reality, and I still want you to explain your thinking.

2 is me encouraging sof to scumhunt.  He reacted to you and asked me about his play last game.  I really want more from him.  He's voting you, and otherwise - waiting is what I read.  I think waiting helps scum more than town, and we have very short days so delay means stuff doesn't get said.  I need to see more so I don't vote the wrong person, and late shoot the wrong person.

Tric, I need you to explain your thinking, even though it was wrong, because that helps me see if it's confused town or scumploy.  If you can't or won't explain, I'll still do my best to find scum but you're not helping me by can't/won't unless you are scum.

In reality:

I'd be glad of scum dead.  (I think we only get here by lynch D1)

I'd be glad of scum and 1 town dead. (I think we get here by one of two possible paths: a) mislynch D1, no shooting deaths at all N1 (would mean scum chose not to double tap for whatever reason) and then a lynch D2 [I think this is unlikely to happen and succeed for a win] or b) nolynch D1, town double tapping scum at night and managing not to double tap any town, scum double tapping a town [I think this is also unlikely to happen and succeed for a win.  If we know who to shoot N1 we know who to lynch D1])

I'd be glad of scum and 2 town dead. (I think we get here by one of two possible paths: a) Mislynch D1, town plan of who to shoot N1 if D1 is a mislynch, and town is right -  Probably a triple tap of scum.  Scum double taps whomever they please.  b) mislynch D1, one townie killed N1 but town held their shots for a discussion about who to lynch D2 and is right D2.)

Those are the three possible win conditions I can imagine and I'd take any of them gladly.  How to make it happen is where I'm at.  There's other weirder paths that involve repeat nolynch and presume the scum kills at night ... or doesn't, and we eventually lynch scum or shoot - I don't see those long plans happening, but if we plan them out I'm all scumhunting ears.

And about that 'more than one scum' confusion - I don't understand or see where or how I ever implied I thought there was more than 1 scum.

[Imp]

Honestly it's a talking point and probobly useful. More shots mean a higher chance of town death, but also a higher chance of mafia death. But we'll be up 1 town player since we didn't launch them. If we lynch town, we have 3 shots to hit 1 mafia out of 4 people. They have a vest, so two would need to hit them for it to work. If we don't hit town, that's 4 shots to hit among 5 people. I could go into percentages, but mafia doesn't quite work that way unlesss you're rolling dice, which is usually a losing game.

I see it as this:

1)
We have a choice to lynch D1/organize who to shoot N1 if the lynch didn't kill scum.

This removes all hope of D2 discussion and consideration, but is true 40%/apparent 50% chance of a town win, ignoring that we can use D1 to decide who to lynch and shoot.

But let's say by end of D1 we have two top scumpicks, A and B.  C, D, E are considered town.  We lynch A and agree to shoot B.  A and B are going to die no matter who the scum is, scum cannot prevent that, should scum be A or B - and town loses if scum is actually C, D, or E.

2)
We have a choice to not lynch D1/organize who to shoot N1.  I think this is mechanically equivalent to a lynch then shoot if the lynch fails.  Odds look same as the lynch to me because:

A and B are still top scumpicks.  We agree as a whole to shoot A and B.  Let's say:

A and C are expected to shoot B

B, D, and E are expected to shoot A.

There's no way for A or B to save themself, but if D or E is scum, town still loses - BUT if C is scum we still get to D2.

This might be the best plan, having C be our third most likely scum.

A and C are expected to shoot B.  As scum, C can double tap someone else, but then B doesn't die.  A does die, and flips town.  We hang C because they didn't follow the plan.

D and E, if scum, are basically given the choice how to get a scum win.

Let's say E is scum:

A and C shoot B.
B and D shoot A.
E is free to double tap C or D, scum win.

Or:

A and C shoot B.
B, D, E shoot A.

We go to D2.  D or E could have ended it with a scum win, and didn't, N1.  Do we call D and E confirmed town and lynch C, who couldn't save themselves as scum?  Because D and E have no reason, if scum, to go to D2.  They have a N1 win and no chance of it failing that I can see, so if I were D or E I'd do that.

But we still only have a 40% actual, 50% apparent chance to set up the correct town members for who D and E should be as we go into N1.

This idea gives town the most control over the outcome, if I understand the mechanics right.  But it's vital we pick the correct D and E, that everyone agrees to the same plan and to follow it, and that we do not lynch D1.

The numbers look no better to me than the lynch A and shoot B, but does ensure that if C is scum, they are going to be D2 lynch.  So I like this plan, because while it doesn't have a higher chance to get to D2, but does ensure a town win if we get to D2.

3)
There's a lot of other things we can do, but mechanistically I don't see them as having a higher chance to succeed than plans 1 or 2.  They might be more fun though.

Anything I'm not understanding?  Does the math work and plan seem sound?  Even if we don't agree to do it, I'd like your evaluation and reactions.

[TricMagic]

I did say I misread something Imp. Also, you're doing the Thing again, can you see it?

[Maximum Spin]

Also, you're doing the Thing again, can you see it?

Can confirm.

Okay, lest this blow up again, anyone unreasonably suspicious because I said something obviously silly and implausible should feel free to quiet down now. I just wanted a funny way to subvert my usual habit of directly claiming town in my first post.

[Secretdorf]

Yeah, I also do not remember Imp implying anything like that. Just woke up, Tric?

By Imp's readlist. I'd say it's either Sof (for Imp's track record) Imp (for that read list) or Max (For that fluffpiece.)

By order of elimination that makes Secretdorf town. Which is better than Imp's weak reads. You're waffling again, not scumhunting.

Although I like myself being town, how is sofanthiel scum due to imp's track record?

Apparently misread something in the analysis of last game. So yeah, 1 person dead by town, 1 person dead by mafia, and 1 lynch on day 1.

... How is this defense against no lynching again..

If we do not lynch anybody D1, 1-3(~2) people will get killed N1. 1 will definitely be town. Another is more likely town than mafia. D2, there are 3 people left. I do not believe it is possible or viable to catch scum by getting everybody to say who killed who. The scum player can just claim shooting one of the dead ones and give a reason or something. Then we are down to 3 players who are in the same situation that we are now. If they mislynch, they lose.

We should lynch the scummiest person today(I would say Max). If that was a mislynch, 4 people remain: 1 mafia, 3 town. We should agree on one player to kill at night. Scum would kill one person. The other 3 should direct their shots at the agreed upon target. If the chosen target was mafia, 1 mafia and 1 town die, 2 town remain, we win. If he is town, 2 town die. 1 mafia, 1 town remain, we lose. Therefore, we have to choose 2 players to eliminate for this plan.

I'm personally ok with this. The 2 players I would choose to eliminate would be MaximumSpin and Sofanthiel although this is prone to change as there's still quite some time left for day end.

Alternative plans are:
We lynch somebody today, then shoot blindly at night.
We lynch somebody today, then lynch somebody tomorrow; no shooting by town.(This, I believe, is a slightly superior version of the choosing 2 targets plan as we will be able to discuss before the lynch, but then what's the point of this being Armed Forces mafia.)

PPE:- Ok scratch that, Imp's plan 2 sounds better to me. Now lemme make another post.

[Imp]

You're waffling again, not scumhunting.

I'm super confused here.  I think I'm scumhunting.

I am reminded that scum Hector said a very similar thing of my play last game, and wubba pointed out right after that game ended:

Your first hint it was hector should've been when he was postulating that Imp was Mafia, because Imp was scumhunting very well, but hector did play pretty well by making sure no one found that.

Can you help me understand why and how you see me as waffling and not scumhunting?

By Imp's readlist. I'd say it's either Sof (for Imp's track record) Imp (for that read list) or Max (For that fluffpiece.)

By order of elimination that makes Secretdorf town. Which is better than Imp's weak reads.

... Okay, so I have weak reads, to you.  Is that why you appear to be using them instead of reading the thread yourself and forming your own ideas based on what people are saying?

If I have weak reads, why use them?  "By Imp's readlist" ... "Better than Imp's weak reads".  Did you read yourself to form your own reads?  Are you just picking one thing and focusing on that one thing and otherwise not paying attention?  That's a pretty scummy thing to do, and doesn't usually help town.

I don't see anything I recognize as scumhunting here at all, from you, Tric.

It's still too early to hammer, but I don't understand what you are doing at all  You look so much like scum to me.

I've asked you repeatedly to explain your thinking and behavior.  I don't see any answers despite your several posts.

I have asked you, before this post:

That said - I'm open to Tric's explanation about why a skip (is that the same as a nolynch vote?  Or different mechanics?) might be the best answer for Tric's wincon.  What are you thinking and doing, Tric?  Can you help me understand better?

What do you think the scum would do, Tric, if we don't lynch D1?  N1 and scum kills someone, probably the towniest or the one who suspects the scum the most, or the best speaker or thinker even if they're not also the towniest.  Then everyone gets a shot, if they shoot.  How does this help your wincon, Tric?  How does town turn the chaos of N1 without a D1 lynch into a win?

I also asked about your claim of forest/trees stuff towards me.  Sure, we have an answer from Jack (and Max that Jack confirmed), but your why of asking, and what you're doing since:

Hey, maybe I can't see trees or forest.

But can you see the opening post?

Can this mean anything other than what Jack said, 'can use it in addition to'?

I know you want an answer from Jack and that's reasonable, but I'm worried you are stalling.  While we wait for him to confirm what he told us all in the first post of this thread, would you please do some scumhunting, and if you feel like it explain your ideas and plan better?

What I see from you since:

Make claims about what I am implying that are not what I said at all.

Discredit my play as waffling, my readlist as weak, and use it as the base for what you claim as your reads

State you misunderstood 'something', make some statements about how a previous similar game ended, and ask about how it's a defense against no-lynching (I don't get what you are talking about.  Who is defending against no-lynching?  I'm confused about the idea, lynch is the town weapon.  I do now think a planned who to shoot no D1 lynch is a decent way to go, if we pick the right D and E people.)

And this:

I did say I misread something Imp. Also, you're doing the Thing again, can you see it?

I am doing the only thing I know how to do, Tric.  Playing the best I can.  Scumhunting.

I am worried you look really scummy.  You're being really focused on that, and on your claim of me not scumhunting, on using my weak reads for your own.

That 'thing', I sure don't want a town loss.  I don't care who dies as long as we get a win.  What are you doing to move that way?

Yeah, I should have explained that.
I have a townlean on Tricmagic because, while I agree that completely skipping the day would be detrimental to town, I do not believe scum would act like Tric is acting. I would expect the actual mafia to be more careful and calculated. What Tric's doing makes more sense if he were town. Also, I have played with Tric before, and while I do not remember a lot of specifics, I have an intuitive feeling that what Tric's doing now lines up with what town Tric used to do, being... silly( ).

Useful.  I really appreciate your thoughts and viewpoint.

I really don't know what to do with silly players.

I came from this as my core understanding of how to play mafia:

... find scum, which is your primary goal.

And because it bears repeating: Your primary goal is to find scum. Everything you do should help you towards that goal. And I do mean everything.

If you're scum, you will obviously have a different goal: Avoid detection until the end of the game. The best way to do this is to look like you are trying to find scum.

...So be bold, and just do the best you can. You're going to play this by aggressively questioning everything you find odd or scummy. This is to get you in the habit of asking questions a lot, since that's how the game of mafia is played and won.

I really don't know what to do with folks who are joking around and not scumhunting.  I think that makes it harder for town and easier for scum.  That said, I do try to adjust for playstyles and I hate mislynches.

Yeah, I should have explained that.
I have a townlean on Tricmagic because, while I agree that completely skipping the day would be detrimental to town, I do not believe scum would act like Tric is acting. I would expect the actual mafia to be more careful and calculated. What Tric's doing makes more sense if he were town. Also, I have played with Tric before, and while I do not remember a lot of specifics, I have an intuitive feeling that what Tric's doing now lines up with what town Tric used to do, being... silly( ).

Thank you.  I really appreciate this look into your thoughts and observations.  Really looking forward to:

Ninja'd by Tric twice. Will respond to that later.

And your other choices and actions this day.  We need everyone active to let us read us all.

I see you answered as I typed; for length I end this here.

[TricMagic]

You're trying to "Solve the game". Like everything is a puzle you can align pieces to. But in the process you're sucking all the energy out of people. Eveything becomes about your talking points, letting scum slip under the radar.

If I look scummy to you, good. It means you're paying attention. Just don't fall into the tunneling trap of "They must be mafia, cause they aren't scumhunting". Max is suspicious cause they don't have a day 1 game, but I don't really believe this is scum Max. Not enough jokes or smoke.

... My style is more watching and waiting rather than actively hunting. The more people try and discredit me, the worse it gets for them. My No Lynch is very much a joke though, even if I do believe it would be useful in giving an extra day. Mafia wouldn't really want more days in the game, so.

[Maximum Spin]

Games that shake out like this, it's hard for me to bother to post. Tric understands why, at least.

I actually think the no-lynch is a solid plan in theory, if people can keep their bullets to themselves a little, but given that, in practice, the game probably ends tonight, I can't quite accept it.

[Secretdorf]

Okay, lest this blow up again, anyone unreasonably suspicious because I said something obviously silly and implausible should feel free to quiet down now. I just wanted a funny way to subvert my usual habit of directly claiming town in my first post.

So that claim was fake?

I was real damn sure you had not yet received your mafia PM and were, meanwhile, actually helping town. But now that you do say that, it is believable I guess. So, that makes Sofanthiel more likely to be scum, huh.

Max, what do you think about Tric? You should have played quite a bit with him, do you think this is town Tric or scum Tric?

Max and Tric, what do you suggest we do? Is Imp's plan 2 not acceptable? I mean it gives us the maximum chances of winning as we only need to lock 2 people as town for it.

[Maximum Spin]

If we have two players we're strongly assuming are town, then it's more efficient to just lynch the worst player d1, then, if necessary, have - to borrow Imp's lettering scheme and expand it into specifically a scummy-townie ordering - B and D shoot C and C and E shoot B. If either D or E are mafia, they have no reason not to just go along with the plan because it results in a mafia win, obviously. But if neither are, it's a certain town win provided town plays along.
Imp's plan actually neglects the possibility that, in the "C is scum" case, C could shoot B *and also shoot someone else*. Or, of course, choose not to shoot someone else and claim to have been shot. You might say that this is suspicious for C anyway because there's no reason for D or E to bother doing it, but it's a complication we don't have to allow for, so I'd say we might as well avoid it and kill the top three scummiest people for sure.

I'd feel completely comfortable doing this if D and E in this scenario are me and TricMagic. It's not so much that I'm convinced that TricMagic is town, as that he's done a good enough job that I'd be okay with him winning as scum here and feel like it was earned. It's important to remember that Tric does best solo, though, so with this being a soloscum game it's a real possibility that that'll actually be how it goes.

Anyway, Secretdorf, just to be clear, yes, I got my PM like forty minutes before game start. It said town. I would think that, if that had really happened like I said, EuchreJack would have been a bit more panicked about it. I was just joking around because it's important for everyone to learn that that's something I do.

[Secretdorf]

We really need Sofanthiel's input here.

A short game like this, with guns and all, I can't really blame anyone for not being as serious and determined as Imp is. But D1's about to end soon, I do not think I'll be able to be here for much longer, probably gonna miss day end as well. I'd like town to reach a consensus.

Max, is Tric more town than Imp in your opinion? If Imp were mafia, they didn't do a good enough job?

[Maximum Spin]

So my primary concern right now is that, if my understanding of the relevant time zones is correct, we may not hear anything more from sofanthiel before day ends. Given that he has said approximately jack all last night, this is counter-productive. Does anyone else think we might want to get Jack to reconsider the day length?

I see Secretdorf has just posted similar thoughts.

Max, is Tric more town than Imp in your opinion? If Imp were mafia, they didn't do a good enough job?

Yes.

[TricMagic]

Probobly not given Fal's is closing in on start.

What is the Imp plan specifics, cut free of the wall of text? Sof might be an okay lynch if they can't properly respond

[Imp]

But in the process you're sucking all the energy out of people.

Games that shake out like this, it's hard for me to bother to post. Tric understands why, at least.

So, I already know Max'll say just about anything.  I don't know how sincere this is.

What I hear from Tric is my playstyle's hurting the game/players.

This is my playstyle.  It sucks that you don't like it.  I am still learning, but I'm unlikely to change in a great way.  I don't like everyone else's playstyle always either.

I can leave the forum, I can stop playing.  But the place to tell me 'this is bad for others' is out of game, not in one.

If you're scum, this method sucks.

If you're town and this isn't a ploy, we should discuss this out of and after game.

If you're town and this is a ploy, congrats, you've successfully made me question if I even should be playing mafia, and if I should just leave.  Clearly after the big next game instead of mess that up by leaving now - or not.  I'll leave that in the hands of others.  Grats though, intended or not, I'm not having any fun anymore.  This is a personal attack and not okay with me.  But you've 'successfully reversed' it on me, whether you meant to or not.  "But in the process you're sucking all the energy out of people" - yeah, you are to me with that, thanks.

However, Max also implies support, maybe.

So we should definitely discuss this out of game, after game, when I don't have to also wonder if you're just playing, or serious.  This is something should only be said seriously, and not in game.  Or not said at all, and I should just leave.

Honestly, I just see hostility from Tric all game, again and again.  An attempt to control the game and threaten anyone else who did anything that isn't cosy for Tric.

Opened with threat:

Anyone who says otherwise will get a bullet to the knee.

Hostile reaction to sof's RVS vote.

Points gun at Sofanthiel
You get the dubious honor of going first.

Said to me about something in Jack's OP, where no, I wasn't missing the trees or forest, based on what Max and Jack confirmed later:

You've missing the trees for the forest again.

Making up garbage:

Also, 1 townie and 1 mafia dead is GREAT Imp. Why are you implyng otherwise? OP says there is 1 mafia, so why do you imply another?

Calling my readslist as weak/waffling/not scumhunting then using it to base their own supposed reads:

By Imp's readlist. I'd say it's either Sof (for Imp's track record) Imp (for that read list) or Max (For that fluffpiece.)

By order of elimination that makes Secretdorf town. Which is better than Imp's weak reads. You're waffling again, not scumhunting.

I don't get the point of this post, defending or attacking I don't even know what:

Apparently misread something in the analysis of last game. So yeah, 1 person dead by town, 1 person dead by mafia, and 1 lynch on day 1.

... How is this defense against no lynching again..

I think this is gaslighting, for all it is working:

I did say I misread something Imp. Also, you're doing the Thing again, can you see it?

Hardly unique to me:

You're trying to "Solve the game".

But also, back to threats about anyone who 'tries and discredits' Tric:

But in the process you're sucking all the energy out of people. Eveything becomes about your talking points, letting scum slip under the radar.

The more people try and discredit me, the worse it gets for them.

Talk about a sucky style.  This hostility works for scum, I sure hope you're not pulling this garbage as town.  Scum get to do nearly anything, of course.  Good play on them for whatever they do that works.

I'd vote you right now - I would have already voted you back when I talked about not setting up for a hammer - if I didn't think doing so only hurts town because maybe you are town and just being awful, hostile, and defensive.  All very, very scummy, not 'jokey' things.  Even if this is my next to last game here, or last if it's 'better for all if I'm not here than in that big almost made game' - I still want a town win this game, even with the foulness I get from interacting here and being told I hurt the game.

Imp's plan actually neglects the possibility that, in the "C is scum" case, C could shoot B *and also shoot someone else*.

What is this, then?

A and C are expected to shoot B.  As scum, C can double tap someone else, but then B doesn't die.  A does die, and flips town.  We hang C because they didn't follow the plan.

Same thing happens if scum C taps B and shoots someone else.  Pointless for C to hit A or B, who are dead without the hit.  So, they hit D or E once, as well as shooting B.

Doesn't matter, because D or E, if scum, doesn't shoot A, who is getting shot by B and the other of D or E that is town.

Testing if B is asked not to shoot and agrees:

A and C shoot B.
D and E shoot A.
If the scum isn't A or B, either C, D, or E could have shot someone with the second shot, but it's one hit, they don't die.

Maybe we're lucky and 2 people claim a shot.  If not, 1 person claims a shot.  Is it who the scum shot, is it the scum claiming they were shot?  Either way, no way to tell, if we go into D2 that way we have 2 dead town (if one is scum, we don't go into D2, town won already) and any of the 3 could be scum from night play.

If we go in with B, D, and E shooting A, that 'frees' D or E, if scum, to win the game right there.  If they don't, if we even go into D2, then I'd consider D and E confirmed town or scum playing 'to show off that they can take a more complex win'.  Since D or E should win right there if scum by double tap of a third townie in addition to A and B going down.

Long as scum is one of A or B, we have a clear win, the puzzle is what if both top scum picks are town and one of C, D, E is scum.  I'm not at all sure my plan for:

A and C shoot B.
B, D and E shoot A.

is the best idea.  If we can be really sure of D and E, I think it works as I am seeing it.

Otherwise, it's not so good a plan at all.  It basically uses mechanics, with some decisionmaking, to set up a strong clear win for whichever side does win, based on our pick of two players as being town.  Every other plan has more wiggle room, which I think helps scum more than town, but I'm not sure of that either.  I haven't played a game with mechanics even close to this before, and I still want evaluations - or us to say 'drop the plan and do something else entire'.  I can live with that too, but if so, what?  Just over 4 hours left to end of day.