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[jipehog]

Btw, here is a map of Wagner claimed operations:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[King Zultan]

Given how well this whole thing is going I bet that website is overwhelmed with new recruits.

[jipehog]

To early tell, but I am very curious about Wagner source of income. I wonder how material were the boxes of cash from Russia to their operations, how much Belarus will pay and will Africa business be sufficient to cover its cost.

[Strongpoint]

It is amazing how many people refuse to assume the worst possibilities as real. Even after a year+ of war with an absolutely immoral enemy and horrible events.

People look at me like I am a paranoic when I advise them to make a stockpile of water and canned food for the very likely event of Zaporizhzhia NPPP going BOOM.

[jipehog]

Lets hope not. And for those not keep track according to Ukraine, Russia is reducing its presence at nuclear plant..   

[Strongpoint]

Lets hope not. And for those not keep track according to Ukraine, Russia is reducing its presence at nuclear plant..   

I am like 99.99% sure that Russia will blow stuff up. The main question is how much of the stuff. The only question is will it be a minor accident (and an inoperable station that will need $billions to recover), Fukushima, Chornobyl, or something much worse.

The worst part, I see no reason for Russians to restrain themselves, more damage to Ukraine and Europe = better for them. All they need to do is to wait until the winds will go West.

[nenjin]

Counter-argument: destroying a NPP and contaminating Europe will bring the entire world together to punish Russia.

That doesn't matter much to a psychopathic actor, true. But I'd say semi-rational actors in the Russia government have at least a few reasons for not doing it.

[Lord Shonus]

The worst part, I see no reason for Russians to restrain themselves, more damage to Ukraine and Europe = better for them. All they need to do is to wait until the winds will go West.

Every time they've done something major, it has been rapidly followed by serious increases in the level of foreign aid - since the dam burst, cluster munitions (valuable as much because the US has fucktons in storage as for their actual effect), jet fighters, and ATACMS missiles went from "almost certainly not, at least no time soon" to "almost certain, timetable's a bit in the air". This would be a risk even if multiple major actors hadn't started publicly urging for direct intervention in the event of a power plant breach. If Russia believes that threat is real, that even limited direct intervention is possible it is a nightmare thought - any of the second tier air forces in NATO (the Royal Air Force, the French Air Force, the Luftwaffe, or the United States Navy's Army's Air Force) has enough combat power to radically change the calculus of this war.

[Strongpoint]

Counter-argument: destroying a NPP and contaminating Europe will bring the entire world together to punish Russia.

Will it? I doubt that China and\or India will care enough to deny themselves profits. And Africa will become even more dependent on Russian agricultural export with the Ukrainian agricultural sector out of the picture. And all Pro-Russian part of the Western public will remain Pro-Russian believing that it was Ukraine who blew up the station.

The only thing that Russia may kinda worry about is more NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine. But it is the thing - Russia knows that it already lost the war, it is just a matter of time. They are in the scorched earth phase: hurt Ukraine as much as possible before retreating. And they know that NATO will not invade or bomb Russia proper

[nenjin]

If they intentionally destroy a NPP as an act of vengeance and contaminate Europe, I wouldn't be so sure. If they've already lost and leaving them alone further jeopardizes Europe, then the only deterrent is pissing off China. Which when your ally is dying while foaming at the mouth like a rabid dog, I don't know if they'll feel inclined to intercede on their behalf. Otherwise China is basically saying it's ok with nuclear aggression in Europe.

[Strongpoint]

They will intentionally destroy the NPP and claim that Ukraine did it. Just as they have done with the dam and faced no consequences whatsoever 

China will do what it usually does in diplomacy - say many empty words about both sides and a tragic disaster.

Europe will also express a lot of concerns (and be busy dealing with nuclear contamination and a huge new wave of refugee). Sorry, I see no indications that any major action will be taken. If there was any determination to stop Russia from doing something unpleasant with the NPP, the world would act from the day it was captured or after it became known that Russia is actively mining the area.

Also, any major action after that thing will go boom, won't even help.

[nenjin]

Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.

That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.

[brewer bob]

They will intentionally destroy the NPP and claim that Ukraine did it. Just as they have done with the dam and faced no consequences whatsoever

Pretty much have the same thoughts.

[Strongpoint]

Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.

That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.

Destroying Kakhovka Dam is not "destroying bridges". It is an act of ecocide far more damaging than a few tactical nukes and the way how it is downplayed in the West is exactly what scares me.


Let's be real Chernobyl catastrophe wasn't that big of a deal on a planetary or even European scale. 10X Chernobyl won't be that big of a deal either. No, knowing how radiophobic most of Europe is (hello Germany), there will be entertaining panic but the real damage will be confined to Ukraine and, maybe, the Black Sea

[nenjin]

Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.

That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.

Destroying Kakhovka Dam is not "destroying bridges". It is an act of ecocide far more damaging than a few tactical nukes and the way how it is downplayed in the West is exactly what scares me.


Let's be real Chernobyl catastrophe wasn't that big of a deal on a planetary or even European scale. 10X Chernobyl won't be that big of a deal either. No, knowing how radiophobic most of Europe is (hello Germany), there will be entertaining panic but the real damage will be confined to Ukraine and, maybe, the Black Sea

Sorry, I said bridges when I meant damn.

And the degree to which destroying the power plant affects neighboring countries comes down to how it's done and how extensive the devastation is. I find it curious though that you're downplaying the effects of Chernobyl. When you can detect radioactive isotopes in the air many countries away, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking that more seriously than the ecological devastation of destroying a damn. Neither are good, both have long term consequences, but the consequences of radioactive fallout are more damaging and not localized just the area where the most devastation occurred. We still don't really know what all the long-term consequences of the Chernobyl accident are, and what it's links to cancer and birth defects outside of Ukraine are.

But we do know that the spread of radioactive contamination is a more enduring threat than the ecological damage and change from breaching a damn.