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[Loud Whispers]

*Guy who was a kiddy book author

Anyhow!

BREAKING:

Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column

And yeah we lost the war. gg wp

To corroborate the jet here is Reuters reporting this is in fact his jet
And flight radar confirming his jet has taken off and is speeding away from Moscow

All aboard cope airlines

[Cathar]

Ukraine launched an offensive in Zaporizhzhia
217th guard airborn defected to wagner

Honestly it doesn't matter how hardline Prigozhin is, or even if he succeeds or not. After the mutiny, Russia cannot physically continue the war

[Grim Portent]

Given Prigozhin's rhetoric I'm guessing he wants to make peace with Ukraine and flip the narrative Russia has been using to justify their invasion of Ukraine into a reason to overthrow the government. Deescalating the stance of the pro-Ukraine war parts of the population will be important to stability in the aftermath of a successful coup, because they won't accept the war ending unless they're given a psychological out to justify it as a win or as a mistake they were tricked into.

[Loud Whispers]

It's funnier in hindsight realising Prigozhin tried to give an olive branch to Putin and say it was all Shoigu and the defence ministry, but Putin didn't take it. Now the die are cast and the Rubicon (Oka river in this case) is crossed

[Random_Dragon]

Lemme know how this goes, but Max and Tac better be ready to bug out at a moment's notice just in case :<

[Grim Portent]

It's funnier in hindsight realising Prigozhin tried to give an olive branch to Putin and say it was all Shoigu and the defence ministry, but Putin didn't take it. Now the die are cast and the Rubicon (Oka river in this case) is crossed

I am a bit surprised Putin didn't grab at the chance to scapegoat someone else and end the war. The whole thing has been a shitshow and an embaressment, someone offers you an excuse to walk away with less loss of face and you don't take it? Walk away, return land, make concessions, sell it to your populace as a tragic misunderstanding resulting from trusted ministers and advisors having been corrupted and spreading disinformation, return attention to keeping satellite states stable and write Ukraine off as out of reach. Seems like an obvious route to take.

I guess he must not have trusted Prigozhin, or there are more immediate threats in his vicinity that he's more concerned about and want to keep things going. Or maybe he's just not in a rational frame of mind.

[Random_Dragon]

I am a bit surprised Putin didn't grab at the chance to scapegoat someone else and end the war.

It's been said since the beginning of this whole invason, if Putin was actually a rational actor we wouldn't have had Putin's Small Penis Misadventure in the first place. 

[Jerick]

Giving in to Prigozhin would legitimise future attempts at armed coercion of the Russian government. Paranoid Putin has deliberately structured his military in such a way so that it'd be less effective but far harder to use in a coup. He's terrified of coups, always has been. Letting this go, forgiving this will only lead to better organised and more powerful coups down the line. His only real option has been to put a stop to it. But he doesn't have the forces for it, they're all tied up in Ukraine.

[Starver]

I'm still keeping an eye on Rostov[1], etc. Advancing on Moscow is a tried and tested technique, by more entities than I think most people could count (beyond the most famous examples of Nappy and 'Dolph) but rarely successful (or ultimately useful). Breakaway regions of Russia (de facto, if not more officially) are going to be how the Russian cookie crumbles, most likely, not an armed intervention at the very walls of (or within[2]) the Kremlin.

Well, at least it's not in danger of becoming winter during any such overextension of forces. It'll surely resolve quickly, either way. If it drags out for more than a single season then it's a failure for both parties involved (as well as a lucky escape by the one that would otherwise have to have disasterously collapsed).


[1] Spiritual fluvial cousin to Aberdeen, Jarrow and Doncaster, as places I might actually have a real connection to/experience of...

[2] Again, I could literally quote from Red Storm Rising, as I have so many times in the past in these various threads... If it turns out we're getting veteran professional soldiers integrating themselves into 'conscript' units to somehow engineer their "saving the Russian leadership from nebulous high-level threats in the very seat of government" I'm gonna seriously propose we start the process of beatifying Tom Clancy for having done precognition comparable to that ascribed to John The Apostle for the Book Of Revelations. Or at least reading his ossified remains in the hope of discovering next week's Lottery numbers!)

[Cathar]

Looks like Khadirov got cold feet (or as he said, a technical incident) and will not stop Wagner after all. 110km between Wagner and central Moscow. Putin and elite fled to St Petersburg.

[Strongpoint]

A lot will depend on the next 12 hours. If Wagner will be able to just enter Moscow and capture key buildings with no resistance collapse of Putin will be rapid and irreversible.

[Random_Dragon]

Definitely likely that drafting will pick up to continue Putin's Small Penis Misadventure if the mercs lose, since they'll need to be replaced. If they pull off the coup though...no idea which way things will go.

[Strongpoint]

Meanwhile, there are very unconfirmed rumors that the Ukrainian army has crossed Dnipro in the Kherson region and is in the process of establishing a bridgehead. It doesn't look reliable but it would be weird to not use this utter chaos for some new strike somewhere

[Strongpoint]

The leader of Wagner mercenaries spoke with Lukashenko and reportedly agreed to stop the advance of all Wagner units in Russia and to make further steps to de-escalate the situation, as long as the group receives safety guarantees.

Oh... Damn... I thought Prigozhin is smarter.  Safety guarantees...

[MorleyDev]

Yeah, if he backs down...how does he expect to actually survive the next 24 hours? Stay away from every window he could possibly 'trip' through?