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[Starver]

I'm guessing that Prigozhin put in place plans to back up his feelings of personal goodwill/likemindedness[1] with Putin with a "Save Moscow from the disgraced military" thunderrun that would serve to please his Lord and Master. ...But then his sponsor didn't actually support him at all, so he had the legs of his operation pulled out from under it and was forced to revoke the mission, mid-progress, for which he now needs to come up with an unantipitated (or only last-resort, barely prepared) Plan B/C/D/.../Z.


[1] if this were a Mission Impossible plot (TV series or film-arc) then I'd suspect the IMF to have somehow passed a faked but credible-sounding communication from Putin[2] saying "I need to rid myself of these people, and I know that you can help me by ...". And thus The Dragon thinks that he might ascend (perhaps become the Dragon-In-Chief/Dragon Ascendent instead of the Mook Lieutenant) but not imagining that he'll be taking on the role of The Starscream.

[2] Or an actual (deniable, but otherwise plausible) visit from a suitably latexed-up Rollin Hand/Great Paris/Ethan Hunt/Benji Dunn.

[Cathar]

What the hell was that

Russian popular demonstration done right (note that anti riot violence decreases with the number of IFV you can align in front of them)

[EuchreJack]

It took a while to figure it out, but the resolution seems to be Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, hired Wagner to garrison his own country. We'll see if Wagner decides that Belarus is actually a bit bigger than it was yesterday.

[lemon10]

Wonder who'll replace Prigozhin after he has an unfortunate date with a window.

After some thought this really isn't as stupid as it appears, and its entirely possible that this outcome was his goal all along.

And that's because assassinating him while he's surrounded by his troops is hard and if it fails he's going to march on Moscow again and this time won't turn around.
Putin can almost certainly do it safely once the war ends if he returns to civilian life... but with how popular he's gotten he was always going to try to assassinate him after the war ended anyways.
---
He has shown his resolve and that if he tries he has a chance.
Will he win? Probably not.
But more importantly no matter the outcome it would be really bad for Putin and the war with Ukraine will quickly end with a Ukrainian victory.

[Cathar]

It took a while to figure it out, but the resolution seems to be Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, hired Wagner to garrison his own country. We'll see if Wagner decides that Belarus is actually a bit bigger than it was yesterday.

Hiring a PMC able to disarm your national military and is led by someone more popular than you are... not a smart move, Despotato

[martinuzz]

Blergh. I hope any Russians that oppose the coup will die of horrible cancer.

[da_nang]

I'm still not entirely convinced this rebellion isn't a smokescreen. The move to Belarus is definitely suspicious, perhaps in preparation for removing Lukashenko, an annexation, or re-opening the northern front. Furthermore, for what seemed like a coup, it was far too bloodless, in particular since Russia still chose to launch a missile barrage at Ukraine rather than the 50 km column heading to Moscow.

First Prigozhin essentially commits treason, and then he goes back to being best buds and has a sleepover at Luka's? I'm not buying it.

[EuchreJack]

There is also the fact that, if true, Russian now needs to garrison their border with Belarus.

But we won't really know anything until Wagner actually moves.
They might decide Rostov would make a fine capital for Wagnerlande.

[nenjin]

Wangerlande.

Also:

[Lord Shonus]

The best speculation I've seen is that Wagner's head realized that he hadn't moved fast enough and/or gotten enough defections. He probably was no longer confident in his ability to batter through the defenses of Moscow. Meanwhile the government forces had the opposite concern. So neither side thought they could win.

This is still incredibly damaging to the Russian state.

[bloop_bleep]

1. I heard that the MoD, in a plan backed by Putin, tried to get Wagnerites to have to sign contracts with the regular military to fold them into the chain of command under of course the military leadership. This was going to happen July 1. Prigozhin refused to comply with this directive. I think Prigozhin saw this as an existential threat to his power standing. His PMC is his most valuable asset and what can most guarantee his security. I think after negotiations with Putin, Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff fell through, he decided he needed a little demonstration.

[KittyTac]

He backed down. But this really, really reminds me of Kornilov's coup attempt in 1917, which kind of was... a catalyst for you-know-what.

Blergh. I hope any Russians that oppose the coup will die of horrible cancer.

What? Prigozhin would be worse than Putin if he succeeded. This is why we were hoping for this to drag out and for rebels to show up sometime.

[Lord Shonus]

Not sure if he'd be worse, but this was a case of one neofascist trying to overthrow another neofascist. He certainly wouldn't be any better.

[Strongpoint]

What the hell was that

This looks weird if you treat Russia as a country. Treat as a big criminal gang. Then such types of inner struggle will look far more logical.

[KittyTac]

What the hell was that

This looks weird if you treat Russia as a country. Treat as a big criminal gang. Then such types of inner struggle will look far more logical.

Kleptocracy.