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[hector13]

Hey man, we don’t judge here. Just ask for a (PM’d!) link to the porn.

[martinuzz]

Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?

[Loud Whispers]

Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?

It seems to be a mix of real documents and edited documents

While at least some of the images from the first leak appeared crudely doctored, the authenticity of the latest batch has not been immediately questioned. The New York Times described the leak as “a nightmare for the Five Eyes” – the intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Has anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discord

I am curious do you have link? (for the documents not the other stuff)

Nah I didn't see it before it got taken down

*EDIT
[quotehttps://www.ft.com/content/03fa9789-3d1b-4d06-9064-371bb4eb11eb but paywalled though]US Officials confirmed to FT that the documents appeared to be partly authentic and were classified, but said one of them showed signs of being doctored.

The apparently falsified document put Russian soldiers killed in action at between 16,000 and 17,500, with the number of Ukrainian soldier deaths at around 71,500. An original of this document, also leaked online, shows between 35,500 and 43,500 troop deaths on the Russian side and between 16,000 and 17,500 for Ukraine.

The US previously estimated Russia’s overall casualties since its full-scale invasion in February 2022 at about 200,000 wounded and killed, with Ukraine’s casualties at about 100,000.
[/quote]
This is probably the work of any number of Americans who have access to top secret documents but get really incredibly cavalier about who they share these docs with. The amount of times you see some spook bragging about their top secret escapades on twitter for cookie points is nuts. So my money is on some boomer spylord sending top secret documents to his mates to show how cool he or she is, with the docs then ending up in the hands of a shitposter who decided "eh fuck it" and uploaded it everywhere. I don't think it is intentional misdirection from the USA or Ukraine since it does give away actually useful information on Ukrainian troop dispositions (albeit 5 weeks old so maybe this is 300 IQ underwater strip poker 5d chess), and it also includes information on Israel or South Korea who aren't even all that involved in the conflict. Don't think it's the Russians either since if the Russians had this... It makes no sense to let the Ukrainians know that they know. Unless it was the Russians, and they've kept parts secret that is actually useful. Maybe they just want to embarass leaky USA?

[EuchreJack]

Several members of Congress get those docs, my money's on a member of their staff. Kinda like the Supreme Court Alito Abortion leak. While I suspect someone on a Republican's staff, it could just as likely be a member of a Democrat's staff.

[Strongpoint]

It may also be a controlled leak with some disinformation sprinkled in.

[Starver]

I'm surprised they don't 'watermark' these things with something of a canary-trap.

e.g. hidden in otherwise inconseqential table 52.a(iii) there's a bit of data that is slightly different according to who the print is intended for. And/or a different unremarkable point marked in the related scatterplot that is diagram 29.b(iv). Though there are both more and less subtle systems to work out that someone had gained access to a given copy, as an initial lead to the investigation.

With a bit of thought, a form of 'error correction' can even be applied to backform from which multiple versions the snitch (being aware of the first possibility, and sought to make a composite/distorted version based upon comparing versions and trying to Id the markers) has referenced and tried to scramble the steganographic watermark for.

...actually, make it that I'd be surprised if they don't. I bet they do not necessarily with everything, but I imagine that in a significant dump of many high-value documents there are opportunities in at least some of them to make all kinds of propagatable 'flags' that enable the investigators to narrow down the ledger of individuals with opportunity from "basically everyone on the upper two stories of congress, plus a whole lotta "Three Letter Agency" folks, their wives, their wives' mothers and their wives' mothers' dogs" to some smaller group, perhaps described by a number one or two digits shorter than the initial list might have been.


(And, insofar as controlled leaks, this is one way to establish who might be uncontrollably leaking and, even if it's not something they can fully prosecute, thus can be coerced/fooled into leaking (or letting slip to the actual leakets) any 'authorised spillover'. But that's a well-practiced (but not yet guaranteed to be perfected) counter-move that I'm sure is already being done by whatever channels they can establish and (re)subvert. The value of doing it via a left-field "wikileaks" scenario is going to be an issue discussed best by the serious people in serious suits who know how that sort of thing has worked out before now...)

[EuchreJack]

I suspect each person's docs have their name on the top. If there is a corner of the top document obscured, that is probably where the name would be.

It may also be a controlled leak with some disinformation sprinkled in.

The leak seems to discredit the current US Administration. It seems like the intent was to weaken US resolve and the current US Administration.
So the Big Question is: Controlled by Whom?

[Loud Whispers]

Hot damn hearing Russian soldiers just flat out rebuking generals to their face is something worth listening. Sounds like even they're tired of the bullshit

*EDIT
Just makes you think. If enough soldiers just said "no" at the same time this war would be over.

[Starver]

I suspect each person's docs have their name on the top. If there is a corner of the top document obscured, that is probably where the name would be.

If that's the only clue to have, it would be stupidity itself to have released with the corner intact (or not changed to implicate another; or perhaps changed to look like it was changed to implicate another (but wasn't), if anybody is dangerously playing the long-con).

There are so many other ways to do it. (More things in heaven and Earth, EJ, than are dreamt of in our philosophy...) Some are more suited to Hollywood, yes, and others just plain clumsy. I bet there are some pretty nifty tricks, in use, though. Ignore my examples. They're trivial, possibly even would work against security-naïve people, but to trap the more savvy, who might be photocopying, uploading or even paraphrasing and recomposing..? My ideas are amateur, but there will be very serious professionals for whom this is not above their paygrade...

[jipehog]

Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?

We don't know whether the documents in the original leak are authentic, although many believe they are. If it is some sort of long-con then they have gone to great pains to sell it.

Some early headlines suggests that the leak would compromise upcoming Ukrainian offensive, however, other suggest that it is not and mainly impact USA in other ways for example:

American officials said while the documents offer hints about U.S. methods to collect information on Russian plans, U.S. intelligence agencies do not yet know if any of their sources of information will be cut off as a result of the leak. American officials have conceded they have lost some sources of information since the war began, but the new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive.

But the leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information.

The leak has already complicated relations with allied countries and raised doubts about America’s ability to keep its secrets. After reviewing the documents, a senior Western intelligence official said the release of the material was painful and suggested that it could curb intelligence sharing. For various agencies to provide material to each other, the official said, requires trust and assurances that certain sensitive information will be kept secret.

The documents could also hurt diplomatic ties in other ways. The newly reveal intelligence documents also make plain that the U.S. is not just spying on Russia, but also its allies. While that will hardly surprise officials, making such eavesdropping public always hampers relations with key partners, like South Korea, whose help is needed to supply Ukraine with weaponry.

https://archive.is/d6FZS

Otherwise, according to bellingcat investigation the original batch of documents was soon after photoshopped to show more Ukrainian KIA than Russian KIA.

Note that the documents talk about KIA not casualties and its unclear if it counts all the usual sources.

[Jopax]

Speaking of potentially controlled leaks, to throw it back a bit and talk about that defecting officer with claims of Putin going off the deep end.

What do you guys wager on the possibility of it being  a way to scapegoat Putin (not that he needs any extra blame for the whole shitshow) and enable a cleaner transition to someone else after he's potentially removed from power. Think about it, who are you more likely to trust (for lack of a better word) or support in the aftermath, folks who were along for the ride while the lootin' was good and who turned on the driver the moment it started to get costly for them, or the folks claiming they were forced along by a madman who offered them no choice in the matter.

It's a fairly long shot and we probably won't ever know for sure (unless big P comes out and outs himself as being batshit crazy) but the whole thing just reeks of being off in some way. It would be the most straightforward explanation for why the whole thing began, but at the same time, way too convenient of an out for everyone involved.

That said, even if it turns out to be true, I doubt it'll do much to help some of the more involved individuals from getting off unscathed (Nuremberg style trials come to mind for some of the involved)

[Strongpoint]

Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)

[EuchreJack]

Speaking of potentially controlled leaks, to throw it back a bit and talk about that defecting officer with claims of Putin going off the deep end.

What do you guys wager on the possibility of it being  a way to scapegoat Putin (not that he needs any extra blame for the whole shitshow) and enable a cleaner transition to someone else after he's potentially removed from power. Think about it, who are you more likely to trust (for lack of a better word) or support in the aftermath, folks who were along for the ride while the lootin' was good and who turned on the driver the moment it started to get costly for them, or the folks claiming they were forced along by a madman who offered them no choice in the matter.

It's a fairly long shot and we probably won't ever know for sure (unless big P comes out and outs himself as being batshit crazy) but the whole thing just reeks of being off in some way. It would be the most straightforward explanation for why the whole thing began, but at the same time, way too convenient of an out for everyone involved.

That said, even if it turns out to be true, I doubt it'll do much to help some of the more involved individuals from getting off unscathed (Nuremberg style trials come to mind for some of the involved)

In what way does the defector story seem "off"?

It sounded to me exactly what a former Internal Security Officer's message would be upon defecting.

In fact, it reminds me of when the News Broadcaster rebelled, right down to people doubting it's authenticity because that same broadcaster was touting the propaganda before.

Those of us living in more free parts of the world just can't understand how people have to act in a totalitarian state in order to survive.

[Magmacube_tr]

Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)

I did. I regret everything that led up to this moment. This is worse than Funky Town.

kill me

[King Zultan]

I don't see how the song funky town can be anywhere near that level of awful.