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Author Topic: 50.07 Weapon Science  (Read 5022 times)

anewaname

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2023, 03:59:58 pm »

Read this post... The index order of the units probably shifted that 59:41 ratio and the odds are probably closer to 50:50.
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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2023, 04:10:26 pm »

Did the dwarf-vs-undead and dwarf-vs-beast tests have a uniform unit-index bias (e.g. always towards the dwarves)?  If so, the results should still be valid for comparing weapons.  On that assumption...

I am surprised picks did so much better against the undead than the whips and spears did.  I thought picks are practically a middleground of the latter two.

It is disappointing but unsurprising that blunt weapons underperform in all scenarios.  At least all the other choices are roughly equally good at defeating large beasts.

While this an extreme test, I think we can conclude that quality is exceedingly important to account for.

I wonder how this would affect the aforementioned gaps between victory rates.  Perhaps masterwork blunt weapons pick up the slack?  Or would the lot fall even farther behind the glorious battle-axe?  Blunt weapons do not benefit from quality the way sharp weapons do.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2023, 03:41:09 am by Mobbstar »
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EuchreJack

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2023, 05:32:28 pm »

I'm curious how the weapons fare with minimal stat & minimal skill dwarves.  Some of us never get to "end game fortresses"...

Panando

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2023, 07:10:22 am »

I'm curious how the weapons fare with minimal stat & minimal skill dwarves.  Some of us never get to "end game fortresses"...

I would have to very strongly recommend very early in the game (ideally using embark dwarves), put 2 or 3 dwarves in a squad, set to train permanently. Then make 2 or 3 more squads of 2 or 3 using suitable migrants such as those that are strong and/or agile. Within a couple of years they'll be legendary from sparring so much and will out-perform multiple squads of 10 rookies.

Also either embark with steel-making supplies or buy all the steel items from the dwarvern carvan, melt them down, and make steel weapons (or just make steel using ores and flux stone). If you identify a dwarf who likes steel, or likes battle axes or short swords, they will have better success at producing high quality weapons of that type even if they have no weaponsmithing skill. I usually inspect my starting dwarves for a "likes steel" preference and if I find one make it a proficient weaponsmith, they gives an excellent chance of exceptional or masterwork weapons. It's pretty normal for my military to be armed with exceptional steel weapons by first summer.

If you're going to optimize, then it's best to just use good strategies rather than optimizing bad strategies, in general minimal stat and minimal skill dwarves will run into battle and all get horribly wounded or killed regardless of what they are equipped with because armor sucks at mitigating damage and they lack the defensive skills to not get hit. Not that there's anything wrong with rounding up hordes of useless migrants and throwing them into battle, but at least have a core of highly trained and well equipped career military for when a serious military response is warranted.

If you want a short answer: Steel Picks. If you just have to throw dwarves into battle without preparation, just arm them with steel picks. If you don't have steel picks, give them iron or bronze picks, and if you don't even have iron or bronze, I guess you can use copper or silver hammers/maces. Picks are great against everything and don't need much strength to do serious damage. The only reason not to use picks for career military too is because it doesn't have a proper military skill so all your pickdwarves end up labelled as wrestlers which is unsatisfying.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2023, 07:12:30 am by Panando »
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Dwarf_Fever

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2023, 04:08:08 am »

I'm curious how the weapons fare with minimal stat & minimal skill dwarves.  Some of us never get to "end game fortresses"...

I did a few preliminary tests before running all of these to see if it mattered. It did.

Less weapon skill (on both sides) made the results far more random. I used high skill to try and narrow down the weapon-specific effects a little better.
Less strength made whips (a blunt type weapon) perform far worse when I put them to the test. (A randomly selected one, however.) That said, I did expect blunt weapons in general would be more reliant on strength.

Based on that, generally blade weapons should be good for low skill dwarves.

Anyway, here's a little Venn diagram to help choose, based on results here and what you expect to fight the most. I like to mix and match to some degree, but keep each squad single weapon for better training. If I don't think I will face undead, I lean into spears very heavily, because in my experience, and the testing bears this out, they are phenomenal there. It is still good to keep a squad of other blades even then. However, if you think there is any chance of facing more than an occasional handful of undead, go light on the spears very quickly, and take other blades as your main. Maybe even a few warhammers for tradition's sake - and to be on the safe side. This testing still might not account for all situations, evil biomes, etc.

I'll also tag on to Panando's TLDR and say if you had to choose only one, picks would be fine, though shortswords are my first generalist choice.

As always, all blades are assumed to be made of steel or better.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: February 28, 2023, 04:22:24 am by Dwarf_Fever »
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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2023, 09:49:52 am »

I'll also tag on to Panando's TLDR and say if you had to choose only one, picks would be fine, though shortswords are my first generalist choice.

I had good reason to recommend Picks, based on some tests. And I just did another more rigorous test with weak Novice combat skill dwarves, and picks had a very clear advantage.

This test involved a Dwarf with stats only 70% as high as a normal dwarf, resulting in a description like:



Their mental stats were also only 70% as good as a normal dwarf.

The target dummy was a Goblin with normal stats, standardized at 100% size, and fully clad in iron armor. I used a target dummy because otherwise some weapons are going to have good consistency in winning and others will just get destroyed nearly every time, failing to capture just how large the performance difference is between weapons.

Number of combat actions required for the weak, low skilled Dwarf to destroy the Ironclad Goblin:
Code: [Select]
| weapon              | mean   | stdev  | confidence_level | margin_of_error | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|---------------------|--------|--------|------------------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|
| ☼steel pick☼        | 13.73  | 7.02   | 0.95             | 1.38            | 12.35       | 15.11       |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | 17.54  | 10.62  | 0.95             | 2.08            | 15.46       | 19.62       |
| ☼steel spear☼       | 20.91  | 11.45  | 0.95             | 2.24            | 18.67       | 23.15       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | 31.82  | 17.15  | 0.95             | 3.36            | 28.46       | 35.18       |
| iron whip           | 46.28  | 31.96  | 0.95             | 6.26            | 40.02       | 52.54       |
| iron morningstar    | 129.98 | 85.24  | 0.95             | 16.71           | 113.27      | 146.69      |
| ☼steel war hammer☼  | 140.11 | 56.56  | 0.95             | 11.09           | 129.02      | 151.20      |
| iron scourge        | 166.42 | 81.21  | 0.95             | 15.92           | 150.50      | 182.34      |
| ☼steel mace☼        | 245.50 | 128.93 | 0.95             | 25.27           | 220.23      | 270.77      |
(As a note, the Whip actually takes about 15% longer than the "action count" because of its slower speed, so its actual mean is more like 54)

The Steel Short Sword is second best, but the Pick is still best and by a fair margin!

But also check out just how much more bad the Steel Mace is! It took fully 18x longer for the Mace Dwarf to destroy the Goblin than the Steel Pick Dwarf, in fact the Macedwarves would often pass out from exhaustion before killing the Goblin!

This kind of 1v1 performance difference can be square-rooted to get a very approximate comparison, e.g. sqrt(18) = 4.2, meaning that 1 Pickdwarf is worth 4.2 Macedwarves or a Pick is 4.2x better than a Mace in the hands of an unskilled weak dwarf. This is simplified of course, because a mace blow might be able to cripple an enemy, and then a dwarf with a more effective weapon might join the fight and deal the finishing blow, but there's little evidence that Maces are better at crippling than de-limbing weapons are.

It's insane how much better the edged weapons do against these heavily armored Goblins, the conventional wisdom is that blunt weapons should do better. Conventional wisdom is the Battle Axe should do poorly, and indeed it did do poorly relative to the "impaling" weapons but it still did better than any bludgeoning weapon by a large margin. This edged advantage is mostly due to the extreme awesomeness of Steel relative to Iron.

Now why did the Pick do best?

It's because of the velocity multiplier! A Pick has a Velocity Multiplier of 2x, compared with 1.25x for Sword and Axe, and 1x for Spear. The velocity multiplier directly increases momentum. Picks, Axes and Swords all have different contact areas, but when hitting small things like Goblin limbs the contact area is generally "min'd" with the limb diameter (perhaps applying some basic trig to account for strikes at a bad angle), so effectively all three weapons end up with the same contact area for a good hit on a limb, but the Pick is hitting considerably harder, cutting through the armor and limb more easily. The Spear and Short Sword are probably out-performing the Axe for a different reason: their stab contact area is small and easily goes through the armor when hitting larger parts like the body.

Check out the deflections statistics:
Code: [Select]
| Weapon              | action  | deflect | total | ratio |
|---------------------|---------|---------|-------|-------|
| ☼steel pick☼        | strikes | 0       | 807   | 0.0   |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | stabs   | 0       | 494   | 0.0   |
| ☼steel spear☼       | stabs   | 0       | 1312  | 0.0   |
| iron whip           | lashes  | 0       | 2768  | 0.0   |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | hacks   | 304     | 1811  | 16.8  |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | slashes | 109     | 537   | 20.3  |
| ☼steel mace☼        | bashes  | 5857    | 16418 | 35.7  |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | slaps   | 10      | 27    | 37.0  |
| iron morningstar    | bashes  | 3081    | 7586  | 40.6  |
| ☼steel war hammer☼  | bashes  | 3505    | 8608  | 40.7  |
| ☼steel spear☼       | bashes  | 21      | 50    | 42.0  |
| iron scourge        | lashes  | 4349    | 9668  | 45.0  |
| iron morningstar    | strikes | 262     | 482   | 54.4  |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | slaps   | 47      | 86    | 54.7  |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | strikes | 22      | 38    | 57.9  |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | strikes | 47      | 78    | 60.3  |

Now, the Sword, Battle Axe and Spear all get lots of deflections for their "joke" attacks like slapping, but Dwarves don't perform this action very often at all.

When we look at the real attacks, that are chosen ~95% of the time, we see a substantial disparity. The Pick and Spear never deflect, they slice through that puny iron armor every single time even in the hands of an unskilled weakling, that doesn't mean the armor does nothing, it still reduces the momentum getting through to the flesh, but it sure can't stop these weapons. The Short Sword Stab also never gets deflected, but it's slash does get deflected 20% of the time. The Battle Axe's hack gets deflected less often than the Short Sword slash, this could be because it's a heavier weapon, or it might just be statistical noise, but in any case, half of the Short Sword attacks are just not getting deflected at all which puts it ahead, and all of the Battle Axe's attacks are getting somewhat dampened by the armor - in fact considering the overall performance weakness of the Axe, they're probably being greatly dampened even if it does get through to the flesh. Also more than half of the axe deflections are to the body, where there's a much larger possible contact area and 100% of hacks to the body were deflected, this is precluding injuries to the heart or lungs. Also 50% of hacks to the head were deflected greatly reducing brain injuries. In contrast, only about 10% of hits to the limbs were deflected. The axe basically has to kill by decapitation or blood loss due to limb removal, whereas the stabbing weapons have more possibilities especially heart and brain injury.

The Mace and Hammer also get deflected quite a bit, but that's not really why they are bad, in fact weapons can still do joint/neck damage on deflections when hitting small things like heads and hands. They're clearly bad because they have trouble doing catastrophic damage, they have trouble rendering the goblin unconsciousness, and have trouble breaking through the helm.

Anyway, TL;DR, back to the Pick.

In no high quality test have I ever seen the Pick got surpassed by another weapon except perhaps the Spear against extremely large tough opponents but in that case it tends to vastly out-perform the axe or sword. It'll often be tied in first place with the spear, or the axe and sword, depending on enemy type. But it's 2x velocity multiplier just makes it the best edged weapon, hitting as hard as a blunt weapon but causing deep stabbing wounds. This effect is going to be most obvious when the dwarves are weak relative to the toughness of the thing they are hitting meaning overkill isn't a factor. Since overkill does become a large factor with fully trained military dwarves, it basically means Pick is the best weapon for recruits press-ganged into a fight, but there's not a major disadvantage to using axes or swords for your career military since they'll be hitting so hard that any slicing weapon will do devastating damage on every hit.

Also if you let dwarves be Macedwarves, AT LEAST issue them morningstars at first opportunity. I've pretty much never seen the mace outperform the morningstar, but in a number of tests the morningstar has significantly out-performed the mace. Not enough to make it actually good, but still better than the mace. The morningstar penetration stat is very small, meaning that it doesn't do much bleeding injury before the momentum is converted into bludgeoning exactly like a mace, it really behaves exactly like a mace or hammer against unarmored opponents, but against armored opponents it can "2x" the mace, I suspect some quirk of penetration mechanics is at work: what I think happens is that the tiny spike on the morningstar penetrates the armor, then the penetration depth runs out, but now it's through the armor, and all the blunt force trauma is delivered to the flesh instead of having to transmit through the armor, this doesn't exactly make sense in terms of real life physics but I'm pretty sure it's what is happening. (incidentally, I also tested a steel masterwork morningstar, and it did better than the axe! This indicates that with the extra penetration ability of steel its momentum was pretty much completely bypassing the armor, also reflected in deflections being completely eliminated. Pity you can't make them in fortress mode.)
« Last Edit: March 20, 2023, 03:17:46 am by Panando »
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Dwarf_Fever

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2023, 05:31:59 pm »

Interesting that the pick just didn't really stand out overall in my tests. I can't imagine quality matters that much more for one bladed weapon than the others.
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Panando

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2023, 04:13:37 am »

Interesting that the pick just didn't really stand out overall in my tests. I can't imagine quality matters that much more for one bladed weapon than the others.

I think there are two things going on:

1. In my above test, I used dwarves which are 35% as strong as peak strength dwarves, almost 1/3rd. As a fair estimate, a peak strength dwarf can cut through 3x more stuff. Considering that even with such weaklings the Pick was shredding armored goblins, it can be expected that more strength results in a lot of overkill, a pick blow that already severs a limb or excavates the heart can't do so any harder, but with more strength the axe is absolutely cutting through the breastplate at least sometimes, so can do more damage. In fact in my studies with many trials (500) the Pick, Axe and Short Sword are almost indistinguishable in performance when wielded by peak strength dwarves against small enemies wearing anything short of full armor: every hit is devastating.

2. You may just be testing who got luckiest.

It's useful to apply statistical analysis. Since your test is binomial (100 independent samples, each with only two possibilities win or loss) we don't need any further data to estimate the confidence intervals using a binomial distribution:

Vs "Siegers"
Code: [Select]
| Weapon     | mean | 50% CI        | 95% CI        |
|------------|------|---------------|---------------|
| Battle Axe | 0.53 | [0.491,0.568] | [0.428,0.631] |
| Spear      | 0.6  | [0.561,0.637] | [0.497,0.697] |
| Mace       | 0.39 | [0.353,0.429] | [0.294,0.493] |
| Warhammer  | 0.51 | [0.471,0.548] | [0.408,0.611] |
| Shortsword | 0.59 | [0.551,0.627] | [0.487,0.687] |
| Pickaxe    | 0.56 | [0.521,0.598] | [0.457,0.659] |

It is necessary to be subtle when describing what a confidence interval means: it means that "given the design of the test there would be a 50% or 95% chance the true mean falls within the confidence interval". (for a concrete instance of the test the true mean either falls within the confidence interval or it doesn't.)

The 50% confidence interval is more intuitive, there's a 50% chance the true mean would be in the confidence interval, a 25% chance it's higher, a 25% chance its lower. So for example based on this test, there's a 25% chance the pick could be higher than 0.6 and a 25% chance the sword is lower than 0.55, so there's roughly a 12.5% chance the results could be inverted.

Generally speaking, if the 95% confidence intervals don't overlap, or overlap only minimally, you can be reasonably confident that one is better than the other. So based on the above data, we can be pretty confident that the sword really does out-perform the mace, the probability that the sword just got lucky and the mace just got unlucky and so erroneously making it look like the sword is better than the mace is somewhere around 2%.

So anyway, while your test is adequate for making statements about the mace sucking, you've only a 2% chance that you're actually wrong on the internet rather than the guy arguing for maces, it's pretty meaningless in teasing out the differences between pick, sword and axe. Either a lot more samples are needed, like 500 or even 1000, or a different methodology that gives more samples to work with than simply win/loss.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2023, 04:17:28 am by Panando »
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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #23 on: March 03, 2023, 06:08:33 am »

Either a lot more samples are needed, like 500 or even 1000, or a different methodology that gives more samples to work with than simply win/loss.
Maybe some modded raws that will only allow one attack type, or enemies that will only have specific body parts/organs. That way there will be fewer shenanigans like bleeding out or being unconscious, or attacking with the pommel or biting.
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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2023, 09:17:55 am »

It's insane how much better the edged weapons do against these heavily armored Goblins, the conventional wisdom is that blunt weapons should do better. Conventional wisdom is the Battle Axe should do poorly, and indeed it did do poorly relative to the "impaling" weapons but it still did better than any bludgeoning weapon by a large margin. This edged advantage is mostly due to the extreme awesomeness of Steel relative to Iron.

The research is very welcome, but I want to amend this "conventional wisdom".  In reality, there is a distinct difference between rigid/shaped armour (such as plate) and flexible armour (such as maille).  Conventional wisdom is that blunt blows excel against flexible armour, while rigid armour deflects all kinds of blows.

I am not sure if it is worth testing the difference, since invaders and player dwarves usually have both kinds.  It could theoretically make blunt weapons better at breaking arms (since those are the only body parts without rigid cover), thereby disarming the opponent and playing into the support role you have described.

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #25 on: March 04, 2023, 01:17:54 pm »

Flexible armor is completely ignored by blunt attacks.

The trick here is that, if an edged attack fails to pierce an armor layer, it's converted into a blunt attack with only minimal loss in momentum. War hammers start with 1.6x as much momentum as spear stabs, but it doesn't terribly matter much.

Panando

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2023, 04:43:15 pm »


The research is very welcome, but I want to amend this "conventional wisdom".  In reality, there is a distinct difference between rigid/shaped armour (such as plate) and flexible armour (such as maille).  Conventional wisdom is that blunt blows excel against flexible armour, while rigid armour deflects all kinds of blows.

I am not sure if it is worth testing the difference, since invaders and player dwarves usually have both kinds.  It could theoretically make blunt weapons better at breaking arms (since those are the only body parts without rigid cover), thereby disarming the opponent and playing into the support role you have described.

Well, that's one reason why I went into deflections at some length, with the slashing attacks (sword slash and axe hack) being totally unable to cut through the breastplate due to a large contact area, but not having any real trouble removing limbs (except upper legs) due to a small contact area.

To elaborate a bit more, with my "Very weak" test, the slashes and hacks couldn't get through the parts of the body protected by breastplate and greaves, the sword stab could injure through the greaves and mail shirt but not seriously. However, the Pick COULD sever the upper leg right through the greaves and mail shirt, but it didn't do so consistently, the Pick could likely punch through the greaves with enough slicey momentum to sever the limb due to the 2x velocity multiplier.

As Putnam notes, an edged strike deflected by armor can still do damage: axe blows to the upper leg that were fully deflected by the greaves nevertheless could bruise the fat and pull the hip.

However even the weaklings had no trouble severing arms and lower legs right through the rigid armor with axe hacks and sword slashes, probably in large part because the contact area is smaller at the extremities.

I'd expect that full strength military dwarves would have no issue severing the upper leg too even with axe and sword. And given that steel edged weapons can lop off limbs even through armor with most hits, they are likely going to "disarm" more effectively than bludgeoning weapons that leave the limb attached.

There's only really a fair contest between edged and bludgeoning when the material quality is matched, such as iron vs iron or steel vs steel, but this scenario is pretty rare in vanilla gameplay, being exclusive to when you provoke a dwarvern civilization into declaring war.

Either a lot more samples are needed, like 500 or even 1000, or a different methodology that gives more samples to work with than simply win/loss.
Maybe some modded raws that will only allow one attack type, or enemies that will only have specific body parts/organs. That way there will be fewer shenanigans like bleeding out or being unconscious, or attacking with the pommel or biting.

Attack choice isn't really a major cause of noise since dwarves choose good attacks about 70-85% of the time, they aren't wasting lots of time doing dumb attacks with only the odd good attack.

Single body part targets would be of interest for testing some very specific game mechanics, but they are so unrepresentative of common enemies and the complexity involved with striking down a creature that they would be pretty limited. There's also a ton of interesting log-sleuthing that can be done against fully fleshed enemies, like examining outcomes of hits to the head or body or whatever. I have accumulated about half a gig of logs so far that can be analyzed, flesh balls don't produce particularly interesting logs.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2023, 04:37:38 am by Panando »
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Panando

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2023, 07:28:50 am »

Since it is true that blunt weapons are pretty decent against steel clad enemies... how do weapons compare?

This is a quick test because steel clad enemies are such a rare scenario that it's mainly interesting to see if there are any really strong trends or gotchas rather than something to optimize for. I had 12 dwarves equipped with each weapon, bashing to death a fully steel clad goblin with a shield and hammer. The Dwarf was max physical stats and legendary skill, the Goblin was ordinary. All creatures fully standardized.


First test:

mean = number of actions required to destroy the goblin, but only if the dwarf won (fights were the dwarf lost are discarded from stats).
Code: [Select]
| weapon              | won | mean  | stdev | CL   | margin_of_error | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|---------------------|-----|-------|-------|------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|
| silver whip         | 11  | 22.64 | 9.15  | 0.95 | 5.41            | 17.23       | 28.04       |
| silver morningstar  | 12  | 22.75 | 9.49  | 0.95 | 5.37            | 17.38       | 28.12       |
| ☼steel war hammer☼  | 12  | 25.33 | 7.00  | 0.95 | 3.96            | 21.37       | 29.29       |
| ☼steel mace☼        | 11  | 31.27 | 10.59 | 0.95 | 6.26            | 25.01       | 37.53       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | 12  | 35.92 | 6.56  | 0.95 | 3.71            | 32.21       | 39.63       |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | 12  | 39.17 | 17.61 | 0.95 | 9.96            | 29.20       | 49.13       |
| ☼steel spear☼       | 12  | 84.00 | 47.97 | 0.95 | 27.14           | 56.86       | 111.14      |

Second test

Setting the Goblins to failed mood:
Code: [Select]
| weapon              | mean  | stdev | CL   | margin_of_error | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|---------------------|-------|-------|------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|
| silver whip         | 21.50 | 12.24 | 0.95 | 6.93            | 14.57       | 28.43       |
| silver morningstar  | 28.17 | 6.82  | 0.95 | 3.86            | 24.31       | 32.03       |
| ☼steel war hammer☼  | 31.67 | 11.06 | 0.95 | 6.26            | 25.41       | 37.93       |
| ☼steel mace☼        | 33.08 | 12.27 | 0.95 | 6.94            | 26.14       | 40.02       |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | 41.00 | 14.68 | 0.95 | 8.31            | 32.69       | 49.31       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | 45.75 | 8.90  | 0.95 | 5.04            | 40.71       | 50.79       |
| ☼steel spear☼       | 79.92 | 40.84 | 0.95 | 23.11           | 56.81       | 103.02      |

Some people don't like the concept of failed mood target dummies, but I have usually run quick tests comparing how easily they die compared with targets that can fight back, and this result is rather typical, with the failed mood not doing much if anything to make the target easier to kill.

Test 3: Swapping Spear for Pick

Since the Spear did so badly, I decided to swap it out for the Pick (which I'd forgotten to include)

(24 Samples)

Code: [Select]
| weapon              | won | mean  | stdev | CL   | margin_of_error | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|---------------------|-----|-------|-------|------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|
| silver whip         | 23  | 24.26 | 10.06 | 0.95 | 4.11            | 20.15       | 28.37       |
| silver morningstar  | 24  | 24.54 | 6.48  | 0.95 | 2.59            | 21.95       | 27.13       |
| ☼steel war hammer☼  | 24  | 27.00 | 9.31  | 0.95 | 3.72            | 23.28       | 30.72       |
| ☼steel mace☼        | 24  | 28.71 | 12.53 | 0.95 | 5.01            | 23.70       | 33.72       |
| ☼steel pick☼        | 22  | 34.73 | 9.28  | 0.95 | 3.88            | 30.85       | 38.61       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼  | 22  | 35.77 | 8.83  | 0.95 | 3.69            | 32.08       | 39.46       |
| ☼steel short sword☼ | 21  | 38.38 | 6.17  | 0.95 | 2.64            | 35.74       | 41.02       |

Conclusion

Despite the small sample size, which doesn't matter that much because the nature of the fight is basically just pounding a tough target into submission, kind of like cutting down a tree where it just has to be hit enough times, there is a very clear and consistent trend.

The bludgeoning weapons, with the whip and morningstar leading, out-perform the cutting weapons, but I wouldn't put too much weight on the exact order of the weapons like the axe and sword are swapping places.

Examining the combat statistics: basically the axe, sword and pick could achieve decapitations, though they couldn't severe limbs. But decapitations are a good way to end a fight. The Spear was totally unable to get decisive killing blows, it basically just functioned as a bad hammer, bad because it only has a 1x velocity multiplier.

As always, the morningstar equals or surpasses the mace. I wouldn't have been altogether surprised if a silver morning star would have suffered against steel armor but it really didn't seem to, at least not dramatically enough to create a statistically significant effect, it really seems that if the morning star "spike" can't achieve anything it works out exactly like a thump from a blunt weapon.

It is very important to note that other than the spear which performs very badly, the blunt weapons are only roughly 20% out-performing the steel edged weapons (particularly if we exclude the armor-piercing whip), meaning the edged weapons are not doing badly. Considering that edged weapons can often 3x the performance of blunt weapons against much more common enemies, it would not seem to be justified to mix in blunt weapons just in case some steel clad enemies turn up, as the generally much more effective edged steel weapons will still do the job almost as well. The whip might be the only blunt weapon seriously worth considering, it basically functions a lot like a spear against large targets, but unlike the spear it is armor-piercing, but the whip is still badly outperformed by steel edged weapons when killing normal goblins and stuff.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2023, 03:18:46 pm by Panando »
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Eric Blank

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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2023, 04:59:34 pm »

How do adamantine blades compare to steel? And how much more effective is adamantine armor compared to steel? Is it significantly worthwhile to make adamantine weapons, or is it better to use that precious adamantine to make armor? And which pieces are the best substitute for steel, say should you make adamantine helms and breastplates or mail shirts?
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Re: 50.07 Weapon Science
« Reply #29 on: March 10, 2023, 09:03:42 am »

How do adamantine blades compare to steel? And how much more effective is adamantine armor compared to steel? Is it significantly worthwhile to make adamantine weapons, or is it better to use that precious adamantine to make armor? And which pieces are the best substitute for steel, say should you make adamantine helms and breastplates or mail shirts?

Good questions and I'll give some thought on how best to design tests for armor.

Here's a first test, peak physical dwarves vs ironclad goblins.

96 samples, 95% confidence intervals. mean = number of combat actions to strike down goblin.

Code: [Select]
| weapon                   | mean  | stdev | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|--------------------------|-------|-------|-------------|-------------|
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | 7.52  | 4.50  | 6.62        | 8.42        |
| ☼adamantine battle axe☼  | 7.77  | 4.64  | 6.84        | 8.70        |
| ☼adamantine pick☼        | 7.82  | 3.97  | 7.03        | 8.62        |
| ☼steel pick☼             | 8.25  | 5.01  | 7.25        | 9.25        |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | 9.36  | 6.15  | 8.13        | 10.60       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼       | 12.17 | 6.09  | 10.95       | 13.39       |
| ☼adamantine spear☼       | 13.31 | 7.96  | 11.72       | 14.91       |
| ☼steel spear☼            | 13.96 | 7.80  | 12.40       | 15.52       |

These results were not surprisingly to me. Steel weapons are already so good against iron that overkill is a very big factor, it doesn't matter if a weapon can cut 2x or 4x deeper than the diameter of a limb, because either way that limb is sailing off in an arc. Spears are known to be outperformed by slashing weapons against goblins so the poor performance of the addy spear is also not unexpected.

It's also worth looking at deflection stats:

Code: [Select]
| Weapon                   | Action  | Deflects | Total | Ratio | 95% CI %    |
|--------------------------|---------|----------|-------|-------|-------------|
| ☼steel pick☼             | strikes | 0        | 546   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.7]   |
| ☼steel spear☼            | stabs   | 0        | 894   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.4]   |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | stabs   | 0        | 296   | 0.0   | [0.0,1.2]   |
| ☼adamantine pick☼        | strikes | 0        | 537   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.7]   |
| ☼adamantine spear☼       | stabs   | 0        | 928   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.4]   |
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | slashes | 0        | 261   | 0.0   | [0.0,1.4]   |
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | stabs   | 0        | 282   | 0.0   | [0.0,1.3]   |
| ☼adamantine battle axe☼  | hacks   | 0        | 532   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.7]   |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | slashes | 55       | 330   | 16.7  | [12.8,21.1] |
| ☼steel battle axe☼       | hacks   | 144      | 786   | 18.3  | [15.7,21.2] |

It is no particular surprise that addy weapons simply never get deflected by mere iron armor. This is likely why the addy axe performs much better than the steel axe, while there is little difference between an addy pick and steel pick: the addy axe gains the ability to do catastrophic damage to the organs and brain instead of being mostly limited to delimbing and decapitation.

Vs Steelclad Goblins

Changing only the armor from iron to steel. 96 samples.

Code: [Select]
| weapon                   | mean  | stdev | lower_bound | upper_bound |
|--------------------------|-------|-------|-------------|-------------|
| ☼adamantine pick☼        | 7.49  | 4.24  | 6.64        | 8.34        |
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | 7.71  | 5.03  | 6.70        | 8.72        |
| ☼adamantine battle axe☼  | 7.74  | 4.93  | 6.75        | 8.73        |
| ☼adamantine spear☼       | 16.30 | 9.70  | 14.36       | 18.24       |
| ☼steel pick☼             | 54.14 | 15.96 | 50.94       | 57.33       |
| ☼steel battle axe☼       | 59.75 | 14.67 | 56.82       | 62.68       |
| ☼steel spear☼            | 60.21 | 19.28 | 56.35       | 64.07       |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | 61.73 | 17.82 | 58.17       | 65.29       |

Unsurprisingly following the principle that "superior materials slice through inferior materials like a knife through butter", addy edged weapons perform much better against steel than steel edged weapons do. In fact the addy numbers are so similar, it would seem that addy weapons just don't care about either iron or steel armor.

Deflections:
Code: [Select]
| Weapon                   | Action  | Deflects | Total | Ratio | 95% CI %    |
|--------------------------|---------|----------|-------|-------|-------------|
| ☼adamantine pick☼        | strikes | 0        | 548   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.7]   |
| ☼adamantine spear☼       | stabs   | 0        | 1090  | 0.0   | [0.0,0.3]   |
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | stabs   | 0        | 296   | 0.0   | [0.0,1.2]   |
| ☼adamantine battle axe☼  | hacks   | 0        | 518   | 0.0   | [0.0,0.7]   |
| ☼adamantine short sword☼ | slashes | 8        | 256   | 3.1   | [1.4,6.1]   |
| ☼steel spear☼            | stabs   | 1494     | 3823  | 39.1  | [37.5,40.6] |
| ☼steel pick☼             | strikes | 1406     | 3568  | 39.4  | [37.8,41.0] |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | stabs   | 1194     | 2022  | 59.1  | [56.9,61.2] |
| ☼steel battle axe☼       | hacks   | 2287     | 3728  | 61.3  | [59.8,62.9] |
| ☼steel short sword☼      | slashes | 1418     | 2073  | 68.4  | [66.4,70.4] |

Of the addy weapons only the short sword slash was capable of being deflected at all, though the fact that deflections are possible does imply its damage is being significantly dulled.

Conclusion

Addy edged weapons are only slightly better vs common enemies like ironclad goblins, and in the case of the Pick it's so slight as to be insignificant. The Axe experiences the most joy when upgraded to addy.

Against the much more unusual steel clad enemies, the addy edge weapons lose no effectiveness while the steel edged weapons fall off a cliff. This means vs steel clad enemies addy edged weapons are much better than blunt weapons, given that blunt weapons are only slightly better than steel edged weapons vs steel clad enemies, this makes adamantine edged weapons by far the best weapon vs steel clad enemies.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2023, 04:29:08 pm by Panando »
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