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Author Topic: Wormwood Mafia - Game Over  (Read 43964 times)

EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #405 on: March 03, 2023, 06:41:12 pm »

One thing to note is mafia can be in any segment. They can be a Root, a Flower, or a Stem. Nevermind a Root Mafia can't really do anything.
I think the team combo analysis with !secret! Stuff is based upon the fact that two Mafia CAN NOT be on the same segment.

I'm not gonna try and figure out people's roles.
Toony does truthfully point out his ability to fake his role.

@Web: Have I slipped and revealed my role? I tried to be careful not to do so, but I think my posts may have accidentally revealed.

EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #406 on: March 03, 2023, 06:44:20 pm »

Re: EuchreJack's D1 meltdown: People have brought it up and used it to townread EuchreJack. I don't think it strongly indicates alignment in his favor. I could see him doing that as scum.

Well, whatever. The question for me now is whether I should believe in the Toony and Jim who disbelieve in me.
... ehhhh, alea iacta est. You two better not be the team or I'll be mad.
notquitethere

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

But what does it mean when people I suspect suddenly join me in voting other people I suspect?

Hrrrrmmmm.

This is fair, people do change their mind, but I was pointing out that Toony literally contradicted himself. He said there was something he liked in my play then later he said he had seen nothing he liked in my play all game. Well, maybe this is null and I'm being too sensitive as I'm the target of his slander here, but it felt to me that his play matched that of someone setting me up as a viable lynch candidate. You know, something he's just done.

'he said a nice thing about me and then he lied and said he never said nice things about me'

lmao its okay notquitethere, it'll all be okay, it's nothing to get sad about

Motivated reasoning is a big danger in mafia, but it's also hard to avoid. We have a bad feeling about someone, we go looking and lo there are reasons to support that feeling. At the time I made that case that's about all I had to work with.

I understand, but what it should be, at least in my opinion, is 'my bad feelings are directly caused by these things' rather than 'i have a bad feeling, here is a collection of evidence that support that'. There's a difference between the two and by my reading you're admitting to doing the latter rather than the former.

Max - Lazy opportunistic wagoner whose defence is he's always like that.

Now THAT'S a barb and a not completely unconvincing one as well.

So, if NQT flips town, we all lynch Toony, right? Right.

I'm going to keep my vote on Toony, but he's put in great effort to win everyone over, so I understand if folks decide to let him live.  It's not like he didn't earn it.

Hrmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Run me through how you think there is exactly one scum between notquitethere and ToonyMan.

Not really a fan of the either/or attitude here.

Hold up. I log back in and I'm the lynch lead? Serves me right for taking my foot off the pedal.

Toonyman, obviously. But I actually prefer actually-useless Fluffe as a candidate for today.

A thing people should know if they've been scum with me is that I don't actually like to bus. Especially at the start of the game, it's usually counterproductive. No way am I in a scum team with Jack. Firstly, I'm not scum. Secondly, I don't reckon he is either. Well probably not. But thirdly, if I was scum, I wouldn't have tried to launch him so hard on D1.

Anyway, I suspect that this kind of defence will not be well received. More in a bit.
Relevant: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=180323.0

In that game, NQT should have bussed hector13, but instead hard-defended. Town still lynched hector13, roleblocked NQT, then lynched NQT the next day for the win.

Thank you for providing evidence supporting the assertion that you and notquitethere are not likely to be on a scumteam together.

Why do you bring this up?

Why does this feel like it's answering questions nobody asked? I know people have theorized you and NQT as partners but I don't think people are executing Day 2 as if it's the dominant theory.

And furthermore, if you can wade through the 3+ pages of Toony Spam, you'll see that I have been making a case for Toony.

I have no idea what your case is on ToonyMan and I read Day 2 last night.

If it's between Toon or NQT im going to vote ToonyMan although personally i'd rather vote A1 I just ain't gonna cause I feel trying to start a bus at this point for A1 would be futile and I don't actually have much in the way of evidence to back it up.

Why not vote a1s and see if you can convince people to join you?

Choosing a lynch often comes down to negotiation and compromises between players on who they are okay with removing from the game. You might find people to take you up on voting a1s (but not me).



The game got much more complicated since my last post. I have a lot of concern focused within notquitethere/Maximum Spin/EuchreJack.

I'll be traveling today to visit family so I might not be around as much. I probably miss the deadline tomorrow.
I think this is Scummy, since it seems to be more of Jim trying to control the day, and seems to lack the valuable analysis that I typically see in Town!Jim.

TricMagic

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #407 on: March 03, 2023, 06:59:17 pm »

Toony is in hammer range again..

Should I? Or shouldn't I not. That vote count is so interesting.
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #408 on: March 03, 2023, 07:30:46 pm »

@Web: Have I slipped and revealed my role? I tried to be careful not to do so, but I think my posts may have accidentally revealed.
I have a guess as to what you are, but it is fundamentally different from ToonyMan.

...Fuck it.  You win, Toony.  notquitethere.

Let's see how this tie shakes out.
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #409 on: March 03, 2023, 07:35:37 pm »

The only other person who probably knows is Tric, and he's Town.

Fluffe doesn't know.
a1s doesn't know.
notquitethere doesn't know.
Jim Groovester doesn't know.
EuchreJack doesn't know.

That actually eliminates a lot of teams.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #410 on: March 03, 2023, 07:40:49 pm »

Oh wow, a 3-way tie.  Now we're rolling!

Fluffe9911

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #411 on: March 03, 2023, 08:01:05 pm »

I am so confused.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #412 on: March 03, 2023, 08:17:17 pm »

Re: EuchreJack's D1 meltdown: People have brought it up and used it to townread EuchreJack. I don't think it strongly indicates alignment in his favor. I could see him doing that as scum.
I guess he is entitled to his opinion. But have he ever seen me do that as scum? Could he reference any particular game where I was successful with such a gambit? Or even unsuccessful? I mean, he should totally fill those holes, but my point is that he is not even trying to explain himself. And we were on a team together as mafia. Interesting that he doesn’t bring that up.

Well, whatever. The question for me now is whether I should believe in the Toony and Jim who disbelieve in me.
... ehhhh, alea iacta est. You two better not be the team or I'll be mad.
notquitethere

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

But what does it mean when people I suspect suddenly join me in voting other people I suspect?

Hrrrrmmmm.
So, with this post, Jim is throwing shade on NQT.  Trying to keep his options open, without actively attacking.

This is fair, people do change their mind, but I was pointing out that Toony literally contradicted himself. He said there was something he liked in my play then later he said he had seen nothing he liked in my play all game. Well, maybe this is null and I'm being too sensitive as I'm the target of his slander here, but it felt to me that his play matched that of someone setting me up as a viable lynch candidate. You know, something he's just done.

'he said a nice thing about me and then he lied and said he never said nice things about me'

lmao its okay notquitethere, it'll all be okay, it's nothing to get sad about
I have no idea what this is about.  I think it exists just to mock and discredit NQT, making it easier to get the lynch on NQT by marginalizing him.

Motivated reasoning is a big danger in mafia, but it's also hard to avoid. We have a bad feeling about someone, we go looking and lo there are reasons to support that feeling. At the time I made that case that's about all I had to work with.

I understand, but what it should be, at least in my opinion, is 'my bad feelings are directly caused by these things' rather than 'i have a bad feeling, here is a collection of evidence that support that'. There's a difference between the two and by my reading you're admitting to doing the latter rather than the former.
This is an asinine argument over semantics that means nothing. Whether a player is building a proper case or tunneling doesn’t mean jack about their alignment.  It also marginalizes NQT’s more valid point about how sometimes players tunnel as town.

Max - Lazy opportunistic wagoner whose defence is he's always like that.

Now THAT'S a barb and a not completely unconvincing one as well.
Jim is doing two things here:
1) Jim is stirring the pot, feeding the argument between NQT and Max.  Get them to kill each other.
2) Jim is establishing himself as the godfather that can tell you what to do.  Jim says your argument is good, you good, capiche?

So, if NQT flips town, we all lynch Toony, right? Right.

I'm going to keep my vote on Toony, but he's put in great effort to win everyone over, so I understand if folks decide to let him live.  It's not like he didn't earn it.

Hrmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Run me through how you think there is exactly one scum between notquitethere and ToonyMan.

Not really a fan of the either/or attitude here.
A mischaracterization of what I said by Jim. I never said only one scum between NQT Toonyman. At the time, I could totally see both NQT and Toony being scum. What I couldn’t see is NQT & Toony being both town.  It appeared that Toony was actively trying to get NQT lynched, more than a simple “I gotta get someone who ain’t me lynched because I only know that I’m town” to the “Me bad mafia, gonna lynch town, he he he”. I am now rethinking this, only because I’m rethinking Toony due to Web rethinking Toony.

Hold up. I log back in and I'm the lynch lead? Serves me right for taking my foot off the pedal.

Toonyman, obviously. But I actually prefer actually-useless Fluffe as a candidate for today.

A thing people should know if they've been scum with me is that I don't actually like to bus. Especially at the start of the game, it's usually counterproductive. No way am I in a scum team with Jack. Firstly, I'm not scum. Secondly, I don't reckon he is either. Well probably not. But thirdly, if I was scum, I wouldn't have tried to launch him so hard on D1.

Anyway, I suspect that this kind of defence will not be well received. More in a bit.
Relevant: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=180323.0

In that game, NQT should have bussed hector13, but instead hard-defended. Town still lynched hector13, roleblocked NQT, then lynched NQT the next day for the win.

Thank you for providing evidence supporting the assertion that you and notquitethere are not likely to be on a scumteam together.

Why do you bring this up?

Why does this feel like it's answering questions nobody asked? I know people have theorized you and NQT as partners but I don't think people are executing Day 2 as if it's the dominant theory.
More mischaracterization, slander, and marginalization by Jim-bo.
1) Pretty sure that backing up NQT’s argument would be an argument that it is MORE likely that we’re on a team together.
2) I brought it up because I noticed something due to an encounter with a player, and felt it would be relevant to town.  You know, because I want town to WIN. It’s called “being helpful”.  The opposite of what Jim is doing with this comment.
3) I was responding to NQT’s statement.  Thus, at least one player had made a comment, so “questions nobody asked” is disingenuous.  I will also add “Everyone stop talking” is a scumtell for Jim.  I know that from our time as scumbuddies. I even made a role based upon that trait for Kill Jim Jack Tric Now.  Why do you think I made Jim a Roleblocker?

And furthermore, if you can wade through the 3+ pages of Toony Spam, you'll see that I have been making a case for Toony.

I have no idea what your case is on ToonyMan and I read Day 2 last night.
Note that Jim left OUT the part of that message where I said the Toony Spam IS part of the evidence against Toony.  I originally thought mafia!Toony was buddying town!Jim, but now I’m thinking mafia!Jim is buddying town!Toony.

If it's between Toon or NQT im going to vote ToonyMan although personally i'd rather vote A1 I just ain't gonna cause I feel trying to start a bus at this point for A1 would be futile and I don't actually have much in the way of evidence to back it up.

Why not vote a1s and see if you can convince people to join you?

Choosing a lynch often comes down to negotiation and compromises between players on who they are okay with removing from the game. You might find people to take you up on voting a1s (but not me).



The game got much more complicated since my last post. I have a lot of concern focused within notquitethere/Maximum Spin/EuchreJack.

I'll be traveling today to visit family so I might not be around as much. I probably miss the deadline tomorrow.
“Hey Fluffe9911, go waste your vote”
But out of all of the above, this is actually solid advice, and Jim did pick three for his person of interest, for whatever that is worth.  But, it’s advice that is generally good, instead of touching on the specifics of this game.

Having read all that, has Jim taught me more about the game state? Uh, no.
Has Jim tried to bully, intimidate, and assert dominance? Oh yeah.

Thus, I am going to take Jim’s sage advice and vote Jim Groovester

EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #413 on: March 03, 2023, 08:28:48 pm »

I am so confused.
Let me get you an updated votecount

notquitethere    --3-- Jim Groovester, Maximum Spin, webadict
Maximum Spin     --3-- TricMagic, notquitethere, Toonyman
ToonyMan       --2--  a1s, Fluffe9911
Jim Groovester   --1-- EuchreJack
a1s              --0--
Fluffe9911       --0--
EuchreJack       --0--
TricMagic        --0--
webadict         --0--
No One           --0--

Not Voting       --0--

Webadict has decided that he can trust Toony due to !!secret!! knowledge above our security clearance.
I stopped voting Toony primarily because I trust Web, and started voting Jim because I recognize his scummy controlling behavior.
The Toony lynch currently lacks votes, and might not get them back, so now might be an ideal time for you to start building a case on someone else.

Personally, I don't see Max, but I have a blindspot for Max. I also don't see NQT.

I don't know anything about the roles, and we haven't been talking mechanics nor strategy to the degree that I would like, but some players are more valuable and less expendable than others.  So it's possible Web & Toony votes are taking that into consideration.

ToonyMan

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #414 on: March 03, 2023, 10:02:47 pm »

Well I watched the Sonic 2 movie like I said I would near the start of the game and now I am here. Let's read through this thread!!
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ToonyMan

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #415 on: March 03, 2023, 10:28:56 pm »

The only other person who probably knows is Tric, and he's Town.

Fluffe doesn't know.
a1s doesn't know.
notquitethere doesn't know.
Jim Groovester doesn't know.
EuchreJack doesn't know.

That actually eliminates a lot of teams.
It does. Tric should know, but it's hard to tell with the guy.

I'm convinced Jim and Tric are town and I'm putting my trust in Web.

Jim bad
no
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ToonyMan

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #416 on: March 03, 2023, 11:48:18 pm »

Day 1 thoughts about a1s, Fluffe, Jack, and NQT.


a1s
#112 - Jack votes a1s so they now have three votes. a1s goes "woe is me" and says they're already dead which upsets NQT immediately after.
I guess NQT looks worse than Jack here since Jack is attacking a1s while NQT is telling a1s to stand up and fight, but I could see town!NQT wanting to help, NQT also votes a1s later for the remainder of Day 1. Kind of null.

#115 - a1s votes Jack back and that's about it.
Pretty much all of a1s' posts are like this, short and simple. They vote Webadict later in basically the same way because I tell them to. They seem to be doing whatever the heck they want. Jack thinks they're like their play in their other game but doesn't seem to feel that strong about it. Webadict seems to usually think they're scum.

#179 - Near end of Day 1. a1s is at 4 votes. Jack is at 3 votes. a1s unvotes Jack and declares that when they die they will have said "I told you so" in advance.
This is the post that convinced me I didn't want to vote a1s for Day 1. Web, Max, NQT, and Fluffe are on a1s. Jim, a1s, and Tric are on Jack. Me and Jack aren't voting anybody. a1s unvotes and just...that's it, waits to die. I don't really see a case where this happens unless a1s is town or a1s is with Jack, but that would mean literally every vote in the game at that point was on a mafia member which is kind of absurd.


Fluffe
#85 - Fluffe doesn't want to vote anybody and thinks voting a1s is a bad idea since they haven't been around.
Null.

#156 - Fluffe is disgruntled that a1s isn't defending themselves or at least giving their view on things when asked.
Null.

#164 - Fluffe votes a1s since they found Jack's mini-outburst townie and are pretty disappointed with a1s' responses so far.
I think this is evidence that Fluffe isn't with a1s. I think Fluffe feels pretty independent here which Web supports later. Honestly in my opinion Fluffe is town as fuck or an amazing newbmafia.


Jack
#87 - Jack scolds Fluffe for not wanting to lynch anyone. Jack says they're "quite happy to eliminate" a1s if they don't show up and thinks it's gonna to suck when they inevitably show up near day end and we all scramble for a new lynch, so we should probably figure out secondary lynches in the meantime.
I think this is soft evidence that Jack isn't with a1s.

#120 - Jack jokingly attacks a1s after a1s votes them back.
This seems...really silly? Tric doesn't like Jack joking and suspects them more for it. This seeeems like evidence that Jack and a1s aren't together. a1s doesn't even know what a readslist is until NQT informs them.

#129 - Jack feels okay lynching a1s since a1s' lack of activity reminds them of their last game where they were scum.
I think this is evidence that Jack isn't with a1s.

#133 - Jack gives reads Town reads are Max, Tric, Fluffe. Neutral reads are NQT, Web, Jim. Suspicious read is Toony. Top suspect read is a1s.
I think this is evidence Jack isn't with a1s unless they're hella bussing for no benefit, especially in this setup. I think they're quite positive of NQT here even though they're in the neutral bracket.

#139 - Jack starts his outburst seemingly out of nowhere.
Jack was pretty calm beforehand, he just gave a reads list, informed a1s how to do a readslist, and stated how town Tric was. After that he starts yelling out of nowhere and says how me, Jim, and NQT are allowed to have fun and he isn't then says the scumteam is Jim and me. I ask Jack if he finds NQT suspicious and Jack kind of gives a non-answer.


NQT
#131 - NQT sarcastically counters Jack's suggestion.
I think NQT is right. Interaction is kind of null to me.

#151 - NQT responds to Jack's outburst by saying there's a nonzero chance it's town-centric and relates to the frustration. He then switches to a1s for the remainder of Day 1.
To be fair Max just said right before how Jack is most likely town which I also agreed with after. What annoys me here is later when I asked Jack about their a1s read they never responded to me until the day was over and I think they were definitely online long enough to at least reply to that. So we have NQT voting Jack and then switching to a1s and then Jack voting a1s for D1 end.


Other
Waves in Stem. Knowing I'm a stem doesn't really help, now that I think about it. I'm only suspicious if another died. And probably dead next night, so.. For all this, my suspison is NQT/Jack as the scumteam this time around. No lynch is a perfectly valid idea this early if you think you can get info. Relying on flowers is a valid method.
... Ya know, sometimes, I think you're getting better, and then you do this, and I shake my head.
Waves in Stem. Knowing I'm a stem doesn't really help, now that I think about it. I'm only suspicious if another died. And probably dead next night, so.. For all this, my suspison is NQT/Jack as the scumteam this time around. No lynch is a perfectly valid idea this early if you think you can get info. Relying on flowers is a valid method.
Does NQT/Jack make sense as a scum team? I don't think it does.
The funny part is he might be right, and I think Tric is the first person to suspect NQT/Jack here.

Both Web and Jim agreed with my statement here:
Hmm I like NQT's attitude towards Jack.
I think this is soft evidence that NQT's case against Jack contained valid points since three veteran players liked it.


Conclusions?
1. Fluffe is really townie or an amazing newbmafia.
2. It doesn't feel like a1s is with anybody, Tric actually supports this later in D2 here.
3. NQT/Jack seems the most viable in this pool of four players mainly due to Fluffe and a1s not really fitting.
4. Max is an unknown because I ignored them.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #417 on: March 04, 2023, 01:07:38 am »

I expect I won't be able to post again before the deadline and I can't really do much right now though I would like to reread the game. I think I'm okay with notquitethere but if the situation changes I won't be able to react.

So don't fuck it up.
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I understood nothing, contributed nothing, but still got to win, so good game everybody else.

NJW2000

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #418 on: March 04, 2023, 04:56:00 am »

Vote Count
------------------------
notquitethere    --3-- Jim Groovester*, Maximum Spin*, webadict*

ToonyMan         --2-- a1s*, Fluffe9911*
Maximum Spin     --3-- TricMagic*, notquitethere*, Toonyman*
Jim Groovester   --1-- EuchreJack*
TricMagic        --0--
a1s              --0--
Fluffe9911       --0--
EuchreJack       --0--
webadict         --0--
No One           --0--

Not Voting       --0--

Five to hammer. Day ends in approximately 8 hours, or at 18:00 GMT 4th March (12:00 CST).

Please correct me if wrong.
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One wheel short of a wagon

notquitethere

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #419 on: March 04, 2023, 05:41:23 am »

OK I'm awake and active. We better not end this in another tie!

Day 1 thoughts about a1s, Fluffe, Jack, and NQT.
Looking for teams here is pointless because there aren't two scum in this pool, but I agree with one thing: on balance Fluff does look pretty town.

Well I watched the Sonic 2 movie like I said I would near the start of the game and now I am here. Let's read through this thread!!
Your secret role reveal better not be Sonic The hEdgehog Movie because that's the dumbest clue, it doesn't even match up properly.



We might almost have enough votes cast for my famous vote analysis... we'll see.
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