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Author Topic: Wormwood Mafia - Game Over  (Read 43725 times)

ToonyMan

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #360 on: March 03, 2023, 12:13:51 am »

I can't stay up much longer today. I promise to try to make a big analysis tomorrow when I'm free.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #361 on: March 03, 2023, 04:24:55 am »

So, if NQT flips town, we all lynch Toony, right? Right.

I'm going to keep my vote on Toony, but he's put in great effort to win everyone over, so I understand if folks decide to let him live.  It's not like he didn't earn it.

notquitethere

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #362 on: March 03, 2023, 05:12:46 am »

Hold up. I log back in and I'm the lynch lead? Serves me right for taking my foot off the pedal.

Toonyman, obviously. But I actually prefer actually-useless Fluffe as a candidate for today.

A thing people should know if they've been scum with me is that I don't actually like to bus. Especially at the start of the game, it's usually counterproductive. No way am I in a scum team with Jack. Firstly, I'm not scum. Secondly, I don't reckon he is either. Well probably not. But thirdly, if I was scum, I wouldn't have tried to launch him so hard on D1.

Anyway, I suspect that this kind of defence will not be well received. More in a bit.
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notquitethere

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day One
« Reply #363 on: March 03, 2023, 07:51:23 am »

Three votes is nothing! I eat three votes for breakfast.
It is breakfast time in NQT-time.

Right so let's have a look at these votes.

Toony on NQT
I (just like you) also think NQT and Max have the fishiest reasons for voting me and since EVERYBODY is voting me or intends to vote me that's why I want to focus on those two.
This is the sort of reasoning that I'd do myself, so I don't object to Toony's approach here. I do reject his conclusion that I have a fishy reason for voting him. I was very clear why I was voting him. It wasn't just a bandwagon vote, but a rundown of a bunch of reasons why Toony's attitude towards me felt like scum opportunistically setting aside an 'acceptable' target. Web even says as much: that I'd be a default target. And Toony agrees, saying I'm "always" scum. Well I've been scum a disproportionate number of times in recent games, but I'm not always the bad guy and I don't think any serious attempt has been made to say why my play is currently like my play in those previous games (because... it's not!).

Doesn't like my D1 votes (but he likes Max, Fluff a lot better??). Toony has been drowning all D2 under pressure and this feels like an elaborate OMGUS. But you know, I've taken Jim's words to heart. Was I being motivated in my reasoning against Toony? Could a town!Toony hold his beliefs against me? Well, literally yes. Town spend most of their time being wrong. And Toony has a residual suspicion against me:

I can't think of anything I've liked about NQT in this game so far, but that is literally always the case. So I would say NQT is still more suspicious than Max currently.

And I get it! I always think Max seems scummy. These meta effects persist and warp each new game. But if Toony is town, he's going to have to get over that if he doesn't want to throw the game with a pointless mislynch.

Fluffe9911 - doesn't want to vote
After being pushed repeatedly, by me voting and Toony coaching, Fluffe finally came through on some reads, with some scum percentages. Still doesn't actually act on those reads. This sort of play is difficult to assess because it's there's not much difference between Fluff as a low-effort scum or Fluff as a no-conviction town. Mafia is a hard game and people bounce off of it hard because there's often little solid to go on.

Max on NQT
Max putting a boot in as usual. Feel disheartened because it's a repeat of D1. I get it. There's little solid here. Anyway he just brazenly sheeps Toony and Jim. Max is lazy, no two ways about it. And if he's successful, he's going to cause a mislynch. This to me reads as scum inability to find a valid target on his own.

Jim on NQT
Egh, I don't like this.

People's opinions develop as the game goes on, don't they? Wow he changed his opinion oh no it's not like there was a specific reaction of EuchreJack's he pointed to that changed his mind.

If ToonyMan is town I think the odds are pretty good it's you/Max because it really doesn't feel like either of you are coming from genuine places with your criticisms of ToonyMan.
This is fair, people do change their mind, but I was pointing out that Toony literally contradicted himself. He said there was something he liked in my play then later he said he had seen nothing he liked in my play all game. Well, maybe this is null and I'm being too sensitive as I'm the target of his slander here, but it felt to me that his play matched that of someone setting me up as a viable lynch candidate. You know, something he's just done.

"ToonyMan meant to post his plant speculation in scumchat instead"

This is farcical criticism.
This wasn't what I was saying. I'm saying that plant speculation is something that may come from a scum perspective. I'm not saying he literally slipped and put it in the wrong place.

I don't like your case against ToonyMan. It's pretty bad. It feels a lot like you're working backwards from the conclusion 'ToonyMan needs to be lynched' and finding reasons to support this even if they're poor or invalid.
Motivated reasoning is a big danger in mafia, but it's also hard to avoid. We have a bad feeling about someone, we go looking and lo there are reasons to support that feeling. At the time I made that case that's about all I had to work with.

TricMagic on MaxSpin
Literally just a vote for lurking. Boring. But everyone has decided that this must be Town Tric because of the role obsession... hmm.

a1s on Toony
Just a sheep vote as far as I can tell. Joined the wagon Web started, along with Jack, and hasn't reassessed or done much of anything since.

Jack on Toony
Jack had a meltdown on D1. I've gone back and forth in my mind about how towny that was. I recall now times when I've acted similarly as scum. On D2 he's pursued an all-Toony strategy, trying to team build from there, working out that EOD D1 was thrown by scum. This sort of speculation:

@NQT & Jim
Is Max scum buddies with Toonyman or Webadict?

If we assume that one between Toonyman & Webadict is Mafia, what does that mean about Max's alignment?
(I don't think either is a safe assumption to make now, I need to re-read the Fire Drill.)



READS

TOWN
Jim - Reasonable attempt to understand the game, clearly examines the arguments
Tric - Being incoherent, making unnecessary claims, but also voting a lot. Seems town-Tric. Tries to hammer Toony!
a1s - Genuine sacrificial behaviour on D1, seems like a newbie town sort of play
Webadict - Tries to push a last minute wagon on Max, a1s supports, Toony denies. That's fine but he's tunnel-visioned.
Jack - I didn't like D1 play, but the meltdown felt genuine at the time. Has been thinking about team composition, which is hunting of a sort
Fluff - No conviction. Very passive. But not completely without opinions.
Toony - Bad OMGUS-type argument against me I can't see clearly on this one. Stepped up a lot with the pressure, but I don't really see why people think he's lock town now.
Max - Lazy opportunistic wagoner whose defence is he's always like that.


Let's get some Max pressure up in this house. Shake these trees, see what falls out.

Max, any reads?
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notquitethere

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #364 on: March 03, 2023, 08:05:16 am »

Fluffe9911, the candidates for today appear to me me (NQT), Toony or Max. It's a good idea at this point of the game either to get clear on which wagon you support and why, or propose a different wagon. You clearly have different ideas as to how scummy different players are, so now's a time to act.



Jack/a1s/Webadict, work me through the case on Toony. My prior reasons to vote him might have been wrong, but that doesn't mean he's not scum. So why do you think we should be launching the Toon today?



Toony, how would you act if you were scum in this game right now? Is anyone acting like that right now?
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EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #365 on: March 03, 2023, 08:52:28 am »

Hold up. I log back in and I'm the lynch lead? Serves me right for taking my foot off the pedal.

Toonyman, obviously. But I actually prefer actually-useless Fluffe as a candidate for today.

A thing people should know if they've been scum with me is that I don't actually like to bus. Especially at the start of the game, it's usually counterproductive. No way am I in a scum team with Jack. Firstly, I'm not scum. Secondly, I don't reckon he is either. Well probably not. But thirdly, if I was scum, I wouldn't have tried to launch him so hard on D1.

Anyway, I suspect that this kind of defence will not be well received. More in a bit.
Relevant: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=180323.0

In that game, NQT should have bussed hector13, but instead hard-defended. Town still lynched hector13, roleblocked NQT, then lynched NQT the next day for the win.

EuchreJack

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #366 on: March 03, 2023, 08:55:03 am »

@NQT: Most compelling argument for you to vote Toony is not to get voted yourself.  :P
Sorry, but I have to go to work now.

TricMagic

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #367 on: March 03, 2023, 09:12:40 am »

My one morning question is thus, who is partners with NQT? I'll keep my vote on Max since that seems to be the common thread in both cases. Ergo more likely to be mafia.

An issue is, Toony, why do you say I make no sense?
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Fluffe9911

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #368 on: March 03, 2023, 09:40:13 am »

Fluffe9911 mocks me by saying I blend into the background but Maximum Spin has been less impressive during Day 2.
Wasn't meant to be in a mocking tone just more of a neutral observation I genuinely didn't remember a single thing you said on D1 without having to double-check first and the things ya said today have been pretty short up till now.

Anyway why the hell are people voting NQT all of the sudden? I genuinely think it aint him because I genuinely think he wouldn't of been going after me this hard if he was a mafia. Trying to kill me right now simply aint a popular option and while he did relent I feel like he went too far for it to be a simple testing of the waters by scum or anything. I think if he was actually mafia he would not accuse me in the first place/support me like everyone else because his core belief around all this is that I'm either "low-effort scum or Fluff as a no-conviction town." which from his POV is just as bad (even if I don't personally agree considering how important town are in a game like this.)

If it's between Toon or NQT im going to vote ToonyMan although personally i'd rather vote A1 I just ain't gonna cause I feel trying to start a bus at this point for A1 would be futile and I don't actually have much in the way of evidence to back it up.
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notquitethere

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #369 on: March 03, 2023, 11:10:12 am »

Spoiler: Prior Early Game Reads (click to show/hide)

I've looked back on some previous games, and it turns out, as I suspected, I'm just really bad at reading Toony. Or to say, if I thought he was scum in my initial reads then he's more likely to actually be town.

It also shows I'm often right about players with weak or non-existent cases being scum.

Further, it shows me I shouldn't be town-reading Jim just for being helpful and analytic, he's more than capable of acting like that as scum.



Here's a revised list of who I think may be worth ejecting today:

Not worth ejecting D2:
Fluff - Last post was solid gold, really strongly shined through as a town kind of perspective. I no longer wish to remove Fluff today.
Tric - Most likely this is town!tric. Actively changes votes.

Probably not worth ejecting D2:
Toony - If I thought Toony was scum before, I was probably wrong.
Jim - He seems fine, which apparently means nothing, I want to give him a bit longer
Jack - Has been expanding out associate reads, even if his vote is tunnely. His jokey refusal to give an actual case on Toony is a red flag
a1s - Most likely town, actively reassessed their votes D1. Not impressed by D2 play.

Worth ejecting D2:
Max - Just wagons - weak vote reason
Webadict - Tunnelled on Toony, but without conviction to hammer

Actually I don't think Web-Max is a team due to EOD D2, but I think clearing from the bottom of this pool is a good move.
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #370 on: March 03, 2023, 11:52:32 am »

I don't think NQT knows, or he's not realizing something very important.
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #371 on: March 03, 2023, 11:53:08 am »

Or he's baiting.

Which is it?
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #372 on: March 03, 2023, 11:57:46 am »

ToonyMan.
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webadict

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #373 on: March 03, 2023, 11:59:26 am »

ToonyMan
Max
a1s
nqt
Fluffe
Jim
EuchreJack
TricMagic
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ToonyMan

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Re: Wormwood Mafia - Day Two
« Reply #374 on: March 03, 2023, 12:12:57 pm »

Pfp

Man this game is hard. The new NQT posts look good and show significant effort. I still think mafia are in a1s/Jack/Max/NQT.

ToonyMan.
I could claim my role but it would literally only exaggerate the situation of "do I trust Toony and lose if he's scum or probably win if he's town?". I probably will today since I think I'm the most likely to die here being constantly at L-1 and there's no reason not to claim since I believe it's revealed on death.

I think you're rating Jack too highly, if Jack is town though I would be more suspicious of Max over NQT.
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