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Author Topic: FBYOR 5 - Game Over - Learning From Disaster, As All Ends In Fire And Darkness  (Read 58771 times)

Jim Groovester

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #705 on: October 19, 2022, 12:09:12 pm »

I'm glad I wasn't around while all this shit was getting figured out.

I'm still suspicious of juicebox but I've only half paid attention to the night results discussion and I'm not sure it's worth getting a more thorough understanding than that.
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I understood nothing, contributed nothing, but still got to win, so good game everybody else.

webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #706 on: October 19, 2022, 12:12:43 pm »

@Web:
Are you claiming you roleblocked me?
Technically, yes, which is the best kind of yes!
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #707 on: October 19, 2022, 12:19:29 pm »

Arr, I be going to go weight anchor and contemplate the value of taking things slow and steady. See you all in about 12 hour or so.
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Nakéen

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #708 on: October 19, 2022, 12:39:48 pm »

So going off of NQT's analysis of all the night actions, which does seem to be correct, the only people who could have possibly done the mafiakill are Vector, and Nakeen. Both of whom aren't really confirmed.

I'd rather go after Nakeen since their actions D1 were suspicious.

So Nakeen why did you target Toony last night?
Nakeen, you slippery eel, riddle me this, how could you delay the Toon if he wasn't delayed? Bit of a headscratcher, savvy? One of you is being clear as a night fog on a new moon.
Belay that, Nakeen, I'm being a blundering barnacle once again, I already explained how (he was blocked, block supercedes delay). But still... you're one of the few unconfirmed here. What's your view on the set o claims so far?

Back in D0, I had two initial candidates for the delay: Tric and web due to their claims of having a kill interaction. Both at the time claimed their kill seemed to have a certain condition, and they seemed trigger happy enough to warrant me delaying them. But delaying them felt too obvious and useless given I was semi sure they would be:
1) Roleblocked by Town
2) Killed by Mafia

That I just scrapped the plan and set my attention on Toony, who claimed a lot of powers related to items and seemed to me to be trying to setup something. With the suspicion that they could be 3rd party (maybe due to some wincon based on the amount of items they have?) I decided to delay them thinking not a lot of people would target them.

Tric: So far from what I get, no one killed or targeted Tric. Which to me means that the common consensus is that Tric is town.
webaddict #1: Knightwing redirected actions on webaddict to Maximum Spin, and Maximum Spin died. That muddles a bit what I was banking on, as there is no certainty webaddict was actually targeted by Mafia or Town.
> At the very least it could mean Knightwing and webaddict have a decent chance to be colluding.
webaddict #2: The setup kill failed from what I got? But they also soaked a bunch of people, and claim they are out of shots.
> I don't know what to make of this. They are setting themselves up for a non-target, which could be a valid Town or Mafia behavior.
ToonyMan: Got an item from Jim due to being a master manipulator from what they infered, which seemed tied to their own ability too. From that I think it means my action to delay Toony didn't go through, because how else could Toony have got an item using their action then? Or their action was indeed delayed and it was Jim's action that went through, but the fact we have 3 to 4 actions on ToonyMan once again throw a lot of speculative glitter in the mess.
> My take on that: people thought like me that ToonyMan was suspicious and banked on them, but Mafia/Town didn't kill them. ToonyMan is most likely not!Mafia then. And sorry if someone confirmed ToonyMan, but I missed it.
> We need to make sure who targeted Toony and why, that would help.
Vector: did something on web, which according to them is a protect or a revive. Why web though? And didn't Knightwing said actions on web would be redirected on Maximum Spin? There is something I'm missing here.

I will have to read the rest of the thread in more details to give my thoughts on the rest of the cast. Not enough time and I'm going to make mistake if I rush it.


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Nakéen

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #709 on: October 19, 2022, 12:41:55 pm »

My focus would be to entangle to noodly mess of the two most targeted players this Night, ToonyMan and webaddict, before jumping to conclusions. Unless someone got an inspect and didn't share them yet.

So far notquitethere inspected juicebox, confirming them to be Town.
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TolyK

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #710 on: October 19, 2022, 12:47:20 pm »

Since others covered most of the action bases, I'll try to consider an alternate point of view, the devil's advocate position...

Why does Webadict have so many actions and get so much night information?

Like, yes, his actions seem to mesh with what others claimed (from what I can tell from the chartsaand my own reads). What I don't quite like is that those actions may not be what he claims they are, eg painting targets. I remember D1 someone mentioned poison effects or suspicion of a poisoner...

There is also another option. Who among us are Dragons? Proper fire-breathing Dragons. (The answer is me. TolyK's also a dragon, but  do they breath fire, or do they hide underwater?)


Pirates chasing after other denizens of the sea, ar?
I'm not a dragon. I can become one but you'd all know about it - public action and all that.

And I don't breathe fire nor water, nor do I think I would in that case.

(Hahah, me hearty Web sees the chain o' action a second before I post about it meself. I guess ninjas really do beat pirates...)
Ha!
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Shakerag: Who are you personally suspicious of?
At this point?  TolyK.

webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #711 on: October 19, 2022, 01:15:47 pm »

Since others covered most of the action bases, I'll try to consider an alternate point of view, the devil's advocate position...

Why does Webadict have so many actions and get so much night information?

Like, yes, his actions seem to mesh with what others claimed (from what I can tell from the chartsaand my own reads). What I don't quite like is that those actions may not be what he claims they are, eg painting targets. I remember D1 someone mentioned poison effects or suspicion of a poisoner...
I actually get very little Night information.  My two Actions that get Night information are my Super Soaker and a Track (I just had to use the Soak to kill, since it only kills if I combine it together with my Shock, though I could've saved the Kill if I wanted to not kill like a pleb, but that's silly.)  The information I did get is... closer to cheating than it should be.  I kinda wish I got Actions that other people got instead, because they seem a lot less convoluted.  Just wait until I randomly set people On Fire!

My Shock is a super weird ability that makes almost no sense, so I avoid it.

Btw, it was me that mentioned Poison.  I have two Protects, and one of them mentions Poison as something it protects against.

Back in D0, I had two initial candidates for the delay: Tric and web due to their claims of having a kill interaction. Both at the time claimed their kill seemed to have a certain condition, and they seemed trigger happy enough to warrant me delaying them. But delaying them felt too obvious and useless given I was semi sure they would be:
1) Roleblocked by Town
2) Killed by Mafia

That I just scrapped the plan and set my attention on Toony, who claimed a lot of powers related to items and seemed to me to be trying to setup something. With the suspicion that they could be 3rd party (maybe due to some wincon based on the amount of items they have?) I decided to delay them thinking not a lot of people would target them.

webaddict #1: Knightwing redirected actions on webaddict to Maximum Spin, and Maximum Spin died. That muddles a bit what I was banking on, as there is no certainty webaddict was actually targeted by Mafia or Town.
> At the very least it could mean Knightwing and webaddict have a decent chance to be colluding.
webaddict #2: The setup kill failed from what I got? But they also soaked a bunch of people, and claim they are out of shots.
> I don't know what to make of this. They are setting themselves up for a non-target, which could be a valid Town or Mafia behavior.
Well, my goal was to bait the kill at the same time and hopefully someone would watch me, which is why I assumed that Knightwing's action was the reason I was alive.  However, I'm under the impression that Fallacy messed up Knightwing's action, which is why I think that Max might have been the actual target, but that's guessing a lot.

As for your second concern, I only had one shot to kill, and it relied on no one targeting my target.  I assumed that juicebox would potentially give me another shot, so I Soaked some viable targets.
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NJW2000

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #712 on: October 19, 2022, 02:28:05 pm »

Ok, going through the thread and making a slightly less ugly diagram with pen and paper.

Note: somewhat suspicious of both NQT and Juicebox's claims. Third Party/Townkill detector looks like a disguised scum role, if you're willing to second-guess the mod. While Juicebox may have some day actions, not having any night actions is awwwwfully convenient. But scum!juicebox seems to imply scum!NQT unworried about third party... maybe not.



Hmph. Toony is correct that we should not restrict ourselves to Nakeen/Vector.

Nakeen's D1 looked dubious, but newer players often do. Not much info to read Vector on. No strong case on either, and I don't really buy the mechanical POE stuff, especially as some of the cited "confirmations" are pretty weak and likely fall apart when coordinated claims are taken into account. Also the unexplained stuff like Jack getting soaked.

I would really prefer to elim from the mislynch voters, given Roden wasn't particularly scummy or hard to read D1. Pretty likely there's scum there.

I.e. webadict, Vector, Maximum Spin, juicebox, ToonyMan, Jim Groovester, notquitethere
Crossing off Jim because of Tric's claim, and Max because he's dead. Going to take another look at the above.


Vector: (for when you've read D2 thus far.) Has your read on Webadict changed since D1? You seemed to suspect him, but attached higher priority to other elims.
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Vector

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #713 on: October 19, 2022, 02:58:56 pm »

Vector: (for when you've read D2 thus far.) Has your read on Webadict changed since D1? You seemed to suspect him, but attached higher priority to other elims.

The only thing I have on Web is that unlike me, he's normally easy on noobs, so I was surprised by how easy it was to bait him into scumreading Nakéen. Also, he doesn't usually townread me unless he's scum.

This is very soft data though. I had an inspect so I thought I'd use it on Web. I got a town result and also tried to give him something, which based on our conversation, it sounds like he received. How the fuck did this happen? I don't know.
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TricMagic

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #714 on: October 19, 2022, 03:23:59 pm »

Vector: (for when you've read D2 thus far.) Has your read on Webadict changed since D1? You seemed to suspect him, but attached higher priority to other elims.

The only thing I have on Web is that unlike me, he's normally easy on noobs, so I was surprised by how easy it was to bait him into scumreading Nakéen. Also, he doesn't usually townread me unless he's scum.

This is very soft data though. I had an inspect so I thought I'd use it on Web. I got a town result and also tried to give him something, which based on our conversation, it sounds like he received. How the fuck did this happen? I don't know.
By Knightwing's testimony, nothing should have reached web, since it got deflected onto Max. But if he received something from you, that throws the veracity of that statement off.
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webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #715 on: October 19, 2022, 03:43:06 pm »

Vector: (for when you've read D2 thus far.) Has your read on Webadict changed since D1? You seemed to suspect him, but attached higher priority to other elims.

The only thing I have on Web is that unlike me, he's normally easy on noobs, so I was surprised by how easy it was to bait him into scumreading Nakéen. Also, he doesn't usually townread me unless he's scum.

This is very soft data though. I had an inspect so I thought I'd use it on Web. I got a town result and also tried to give him something, which based on our conversation, it sounds like he received. How the fuck did this happen? I don't know.
Vector: (for when you've read D2 thus far.) Has your read on Webadict changed since D1? You seemed to suspect him, but attached higher priority to other elims.

The only thing I have on Web is that unlike me, he's normally easy on noobs, so I was surprised by how easy it was to bait him into scumreading Nakéen. Also, he doesn't usually townread me unless he's scum.

This is very soft data though. I had an inspect so I thought I'd use it on Web. I got a town result and also tried to give him something, which based on our conversation, it sounds like he received. How the fuck did this happen? I don't know.
By Knightwing's testimony, nothing should have reached web, since it got deflected onto Max. But if he received something from you, that throws the veracity of that statement off.
Mod error.  I don't know why this is so hard for people to understand.  I've said it 5 times or so.  It was corrected by Fallacy that I did not receive anything, but I am pretty sure it was Vector who originally targeted me, unless a second person targeted me, but it makes no sense for them to not claim as such, as it's a stupidly Townie ability.

And, yes, it is super cheaty that I'm using that information, but, at best, I'm willing to say that Vector is very likely to be Town.

Ok, going through the thread and making a slightly less ugly diagram with pen and paper.

Note: somewhat suspicious of both NQT and Juicebox's claims. Third Party/Townkill detector looks like a disguised scum role, if you're willing to second-guess the mod. While Juicebox may have some day actions, not having any night actions is awwwwfully convenient. But scum!juicebox seems to imply scum!NQT unworried about third party... maybe not.



Hmph. Toony is correct that we should not restrict ourselves to Nakeen/Vector.

Nakeen's D1 looked dubious, but newer players often do. Not much info to read Vector on. No strong case on either, and I don't really buy the mechanical POE stuff, especially as some of the cited "confirmations" are pretty weak and likely fall apart when coordinated claims are taken into account. Also the unexplained stuff like Jack getting soaked.

I would really prefer to elim from the mislynch voters, given Roden wasn't particularly scummy or hard to read D1. Pretty likely there's scum there.

I.e. webadict, Vector, Maximum Spin, juicebox, ToonyMan, Jim Groovester, notquitethere
Crossing off Jim because of Tric's claim, and Max because he's dead. Going to take another look at the above.
Hm, that's almost fair, except that you chose specifically to not vote.  Why does that eliminate you from the list?

I'll be honest, I would probably have voted for Roden over anyone else except you.  Roden was playing very similar to how he was in BeBYOR 3, and I felt that he had a very high likelihood of being scum.  I think it's fair to judge me on that standard, but that standard seems to coincidentally skip right over you.

What's your reasoning for not voting Yesterday?
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #716 on: October 19, 2022, 04:30:55 pm »

I'm home.

First, I want to cover claims for D1.
Second, I want to cover the N1 claim progression and general behavior of players for D2.
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Nakéen

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #717 on: October 19, 2022, 05:06:43 pm »

I'm trying to figure out who could have made the MafiaKill.
From the current claims Maximum Spin died to the MafiaKill, as webadict tried to kill Jim but couldn't due to a redirection on a not!Soaked target.
TricMagic may have a kill, but it is confirmed they went on Jim then were redirected on NJW.

Soaked: TricMagic, Knightwing64, Nakéen, Jim Groovester, and EuchreJack

Who could have made the kill, if we assume no false report due to unconfirmed action claim:
notquitethere: went on juicebox, technically confirmed but confusion brings doubt to the confirmation.
Nakéen: 1 action limit confirmed by juice, went on Toony, unconfirmed.
juicebox: used two actions (NJW and Nakéen) NJW can confirm, Nakéen can't confirm.

Who could only have made the kill using a double action, if we assume no false report:
EuchreJack: went on NQT, confirmed. Ambiguity on Soak though.
NJW: not soaked, went on Jim. confirmed by Tric and Web action interaction.
Knightwing64: soaked, went on web
TricMagic: soaked, went on Jim but got redirected on NJW. Confirmed by web.
Jim: went on Toony, confirmed
Toony: went on web and jack
TolyK: went on Toony, confirmed
webadict: went on NJW+alt Jim/Nak/Knight, confirmed by Tric redirection.
Vector: went on web, confirmed due to GM mistake.


The messy redirections between web, Tric, Jim, and NJW fit together to confirm web, Tric and NJW claims. So far I would consider these three as likely town.

Regarding the soaked interactions, only EuchreJack's remains unsolved. Meaning someone likely us hiding an interaction, or I misread something. Or Jack did not target NQT and they are in fact in the same team.

notquitethere what are your thoughts about my reasoning? Your misreading led to much confusion, and I'm harbouring doubts against you now.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #718 on: October 19, 2022, 05:13:25 pm »

It's not just double actions at night, many players have day abilities (like myself and Juicebox). If mafia have day abilities that interfere with the following night we will have no idea and they'll be able to perform their night actions still.

Can someone confirm how redirections and busses are handled in this game? FoU does not inform players affected by them correct? That has been my assumption for player's behavior as I make this post.
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TricMagic

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #719 on: October 19, 2022, 05:16:36 pm »

That would be correct. My report states NJW as a result. Even if Jim was the one hit.
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