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[Lord Shonus]

The "best case" scenario for China invading Taiwan is if Biden and other world leaders had folded, allowing the invasion to go with nothing more than a slap on the wrist. When, instead, it provoked an "everything short of war" response from the entire planet, that's a sign that China can't get away with it either - and they're even more vulnerable to sanctions.

[JoshuaFH]

Side note with particular relevance to the odds that this'll become the WWIII thread, I feel like the most opportune time for China to make any move on Taiwan has already come and gone. It would've been the best chance for escalating things back during the first couple days of this conflict, but not the Russians are struggling and countries will likely be able to respond quicker than they would've, back when they were still busy planning out their initial response to Russia's invasion.

Xi Jinping: Alright, on the count of 3, we both invade at the same time. 1...
Putin: *Invades right away*
Xi Jinping: SHIT I WASN'T READY!

I'm just sitting here imagining a Leeroy Jenkins redub with lil' Putler and Winnie the Pooh.

Putler: Aw shit, all my Oligarchs are about to behead me for my incompetence; least I got chicken tho'.

On another line of thought, what if the entire stink with China craving that lush Taiwanese soil was actually one giant charade? Like, everything. The censorship, the threats, the incessant wailing and teeth gnashing; all of it was just to convince Russia that they have Russia that they have a pseudo-friend who is aligned as far as imperialist ideologies go? Because if they had invaded simultaneously, the west's response might have been too dispersed to be effective on either front; but if it's just one, then they could concentrate all of their support on that one and prevail against the aggressor. So the idea would be to egg on Russia, on the premise that they'd be part of the joint invasion idea, then abandon them in the lurch when they inevitably fail. Then China wouldn't have to worry about Russia as a potential opponent any more.

[heydude6]

If there was some sort of arrangement with China that's been betrayed, Putin will likely reveal it once he goes down to make sure his backstabbing buddy doesn't escape with him.

Now that I think of it, there's a pretty good chance Putin might end up fleeing to China.

[martinuzz]

Ukraine ambassador in the US spoke to congress, saying Russia used a vacuum bomb against the population today.
Vacuum bombs are banned by Geneva Convention. Note that Russia did not sign the Geneva Convention.

[Lord Shonus]

Vacuum bombs are banned by Geneva Convention. Note that Russia did not sign the Geneva Convention.

Russia is a signatory of the Geneva conventions. Further, thermobaric weapons are not banned by any international treaty. Use of any weapon to deliberately target civilians is a Geneva violation, but not because a thermobaric weapon was used.

[martinuzz]

Russia is a signatory of the Geneva conventions.

I notice it has been adjusted to correct that in my newspaper's liveblog since I last posted.

[da_nang]

Well, BBC is now reporting there's a 40-mile-long convoy trying to come down on Kyiv.

I'm guessing there's a traffic jam, tanks stuck in mud, and fuel issues. Either that, or they trying to get all the pieces into position before bumrushing Kyiv.

Imagine a strafing or bombing run on that sucker. A pilot's wet dream.

[martinuzz]

64km long convoy. That's... a lot of vehicles.

[LordBaal]

Also very unlikely.... what if this whole invasion has been so badly made because the main goal was never win... perhaps Putin is tired of everything and without him there's no point in more humanity.

[Strongpoint]

EDIT: Nigeria has called upon the governments of Poland and Ukraine to stop discriminating against black people trying to flee the Ukraine.
The past few days saw footage and messages online of black people complaining about racism during their attempt to exit the Ukraine.

Whether this footage and messaging is real or just more Russian fake news trying to paint us as nazis is unknown, but at least the Nigerian government is taking it seriously.

I would be very surprised if this weren't true. Surely you remember, just a few months ago we've had this massive clusterfuck with Belarus intentionally shipping in middle eastern refugees and literally pushing them across the border to Poland. Which dug its heels and went full Trump on the idea of accepting brown-skinned asylum seekers. While the situation was clearly and maliciously manufactured by Belarus, there was a whole set of humanitarian nasties going on on our side in response, from pushing families back across the border, to not allowing journalists to report from the site or humanitarian aid be provided (the affected border area was cordoned off and only accessible to local residents). The end result was a number of people freezing to death and a massive trauma for many more. Politically, the ruling party was demonising the immigrants on public television (including, I kid you no, our ministers implying that the migrants were morally bankrupt zoophiles and paedophiles), while the opposition smeared shit on the border guards on social media - justifiably or not, it could only make them more inclined to buy into the government propaganda.

Now you have many of these same border guards - as well as a large part of the general populace who did agree with the government on this - with hardened stances, fresh memories, and internal justifications for treating immigrants inhumanely, seeing more non-whites arrive. It'd take some mental gymnastics to resolve the obvious cognitive dissonance without falling back on race.

And god damn, it's not like there wasn't a fertile ground for racism to bloom here before. Nigerians, and Kenyans, and Angolans, who for some reason have found this part of the world attractive as a destination for exchange students, have it tough here. Even in the largest Polish cities a black person provokes stares, racist jokes go unchecked, and incidents are hardly isolated.
I can only assume the attitudes in Ukraine are very similar.


I look at the across-the-board readiness of my fellow Poles to accept Ukrainian refugees with admiration. But at the same time, it's hard not to see the stark contrast with the treatment the refugees from more sun-touched countries have received so very recently.

Racism has nothing to do with this

Normal people give priority to women, infirm, and children over adult healthy men who think that they should be first in line simply because they are foreigners

I am disgusted that those students play the racism card in this situation

[MaxTheFox]

As a Ukrainian, I can safely tell you that unfortunately it is indeed a racist country. Most parts of Eastern Europe are actually (including Russia).

I'm not surprised by any of this border stuff. It's a country where there is no taboo against the N-word.

"Negr" isn't really the N-word despite sounding similar. Not saying East European countries don't have some problems with racism, but it's actually a neutral term (until recently, in some places). I still don't use it because exposure to its very offensive English cognate makes me uncomfortable.
And yeah, Xi is smart enough that he won't step on the same rake that Putin just did with Taiwan.

[Ulfarr]

Oh no men refuse to get caught in a war that isn’t theirs. How disgusting! /s

If they have to give the border guards specific orders[1] to allow foreign non combatants to leave, then there is no denying the racial/national aspect of the problem.

1. Which the Ukrainian Foreign Minister has reassured the Nigerian Foreign Minister to have given

[martinuzz]

Russian soldiers have been stealing mobile phones from Ukrainians to be able to communicate. Ukraine warns it's citizens to hide their telephones.
Telephone companies have been blocking Russian sim cards since yesterday. Soldier's in Putin's army are no longer able to phone home.

[Duuvian]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/us-rules-out-ukraine-no-fly-zone-after-zelenskyy-appeal

Biden, put together a fucking army on the Western border of Ukraine and start working towards a no fly zone, stop with this pussy shit. Even if your primary concern is re-election like it always is with the polishits in your crew, how you think you do with Putin in Kiev in November? Stop looking for the easy way out, you have Putin right where you want him except that he sees you doing not enough to counter the invasion and backing away. Whatever happened to "all options on the table"? Is that limited to opponents who don't have nukes? No wonder they are so popular in "rogue" states!

You have a very short window it appears until it is likely that you will lose control in the Congress and the party that has influential if not dominating Putin sympathizers in it are able to torpedo WhAtEvEr you do on their principle of obstruction. Right now there are people in their party telling the Putin sympathetic Republicans to STFU and sit down, which will not keep working if you ignore them by allowing Ukraine to fall. There's how it's in your political interest, while the public broadly agrees despite the efforrts of Tucker.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_column

This whole time of the buildup I didn't call for you to be ready because you got out ahead and said these things are off the table. I would have had to contradict you and been jumped on by both sides to the detriment of my position, since the righty base may have been convinced to take the opposite position by default and punish the no to Putin Republicans by affiliation with "liberal" ideas once the 5th Column had a moment to realize they had such an opportunity. Now that you. Biden, have found yoiur way here, you still do these things and I can't in good conscience not say anything about the lack of strategic flexibility regarding preparedness that seems to be a running theme in foreign policy.

I was going to post an old quote by myself from 2014, the previous time I posted about a no fly zone in Ukraine. I found it the first day I heard Kinzinger propose a no fly zone, finding it with the search function, but it is not finding it today. Is the search function messed up due to the forum errors? Also is quoting from an ancient thread from 2014 a good idea, or does it misquote or shiver the gears of the forums so to speak? I posted a lot on Ukraine over the years at times like today, and while I found results prior to today I can't find them on today's search.

While I cannot find the quote, it was in response to a reply that stated invading Russia would start WW3. In my response and what I sought to quote was a statement that the idea of crossing the Russian border was not needed, as the forces involved would have no need to push past the Ukrainian borders.

I think at the very least if you sit and watch the absolute calumnity that is about to unfold, you will soon want to make an exclusion zone/ humanitarian corridor etc at some point such as the Turks have done in Syria. You will need forces there beforehand for that, even if you cannot place a counter invasion army there like your Eastern European NATO friends would prefer you will need a substantial force that will not be cowed by Putin's threats.

[Loud Whispers]

I'm just sitting here imagining a Leeroy Jenkins redub with lil' Putler and Winnie the Pooh.

Xi: "I calculate we have a 53.3 recurring % chance of winning if we flare up tensions in Eastern Europe, the straits of Hormuz and Taiwan at the same time..."
Putin: "READY BOYS LET'S DO THIS VLADIMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIR POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN"
Xi: "Oh mao god he just went in"