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Author Topic: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)  (Read 69219 times)

martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #330 on: February 28, 2022, 12:50:02 pm »

Finland also broke neutrality and is sending 1500 rocket launchers to Ukraine, amongst other stuff like tons of guns and ammo.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #331 on: February 28, 2022, 01:17:49 pm »

EDIT: Nigeria has called upon the governments of Poland and Ukraine to stop discriminating against black people trying to flee the Ukraine.
The past few days saw footage and messages online of black people complaining about racism during their attempt to exit the Ukraine.

Whether this footage and messaging is real or just more Russian fake news trying to paint us as nazis is unknown, but at least the Nigerian government is taking it seriously.
I would be very surprised if this weren't true. Surely you remember, just a few months ago we've had this massive clusterfuck with Belarus intentionally shipping in middle eastern refugees and literally pushing them across the border to Poland. Which dug its heels and went full Trump on the idea of accepting brown-skinned asylum seekers. While the situation was clearly and maliciously manufactured by Belarus, there was a whole set of humanitarian nasties going on on our side in response, from pushing families back across the border, to not allowing journalists to report from the site or humanitarian aid be provided (the affected border area was cordoned off and only accessible to local residents). The end result was a number of people freezing to death and a massive trauma for many more. Politically, the ruling party was demonising the immigrants on public television (including, I kid you no, our ministers implying that the migrants were morally bankrupt zoophiles and paedophiles), while the opposition smeared shit on the border guards on social media - justifiably or not, it could only make them more inclined to buy into the government propaganda.

Now you have many of these same border guards - as well as a large part of the general populace who did agree with the government on this - with hardened stances, fresh memories, and internal justifications for treating immigrants inhumanely, seeing more non-whites arrive. It'd take some mental gymnastics to resolve the obvious cognitive dissonance without falling back on race.

And god damn, it's not like there wasn't a fertile ground for racism to bloom here before. Nigerians, and Kenyans, and Angolans, who for some reason have found this part of the world attractive as a destination for exchange students, have it tough here. Even in the largest Polish cities a black person provokes stares, racist jokes go unchecked, and incidents are hardly isolated.
I can only assume the attitudes in Ukraine are very similar.


I look at the across-the-board readiness of my fellow Poles to accept Ukrainian refugees with admiration. But at the same time, it's hard not to see the stark contrast with the treatment the refugees from more sun-touched countries have received so very recently.
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martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #332 on: February 28, 2022, 01:33:26 pm »

Yeah I would also not be surprised if most or all of that footage and messages are real.
No need to convince me, you're preaching for your own parochy there.

It's just possible that there's also fake reports on top of that to paint the West as nazis, that's all I meant to say.
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None

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #333 on: February 28, 2022, 03:04:36 pm »

NPR reports that Ukraine is prioritizing shipping out women and children first, and that it's not a matter of race, but that there may be a misperception that is is a matter of race. I'd suppose that exchange students are less likely to be part of family units over there, so.

Hard to do much beyond speculate.
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heydude6

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #334 on: February 28, 2022, 03:23:30 pm »

As a Ukrainian, I can safely tell you that unfortunately it is indeed a racist country. Most parts of Eastern Europe are actually (including Russia).

I'm not surprised by any of this border stuff. It's a country where there is no taboo against the N-word.
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TD1

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #335 on: February 28, 2022, 03:48:26 pm »

The wide usage of the word means little, if there is no taboo. Defiance of taboo is what gives the word its racist oomph; without that, it's a descriptor.

Racism lies in actions and is indicated by words. But words are tricksy little blighters.
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LordBaal

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #336 on: February 28, 2022, 03:51:53 pm »

Perhaps. We call people negro here as a simple nickname and have several in my family which are nicknamed like that, because here its not an insult at all, because it would be stupid for it to be an insult in the first place. But as said above, it has to be an insult in the context first to be considered as such.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #337 on: February 28, 2022, 04:06:49 pm »

Ukraine is now claiming that at least one of the recent massive explosions was a Russian fuel depot. Unless the translation I'm seeing is dodgy, they are claiming that 90+ tanks, 20 SPGs and 8 fuel trucks were caught in the blast.

They have also released footage of a drone converting a fuel train into not-a-train.
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martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #338 on: February 28, 2022, 04:07:26 pm »

With the current drop rate of the ruble and the popping out of existence of 40% or more of his war coffers, I am becoming slightly more optimistic that history will remember the guy as 'Vlad the Impaled'.
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da_nang

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #339 on: February 28, 2022, 04:30:35 pm »

Monaco is now imposing sanctions as well.

One less vacation spot.
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #340 on: February 28, 2022, 05:27:00 pm »

Side note with particular relevance to the odds that this'll become the WWIII thread, I feel like the most opportune time for China to make any move on Taiwan has already come and gone. It would've been the best chance for escalating things back during the first couple days of this conflict, but not the Russians are struggling and countries will likely be able to respond quicker than they would've, back when they were still busy planning out their initial response to Russia's invasion.
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JoshuaFH

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #341 on: February 28, 2022, 05:32:40 pm »

Side note with particular relevance to the odds that this'll become the WWIII thread, I feel like the most opportune time for China to make any move on Taiwan has already come and gone. It would've been the best chance for escalating things back during the first couple days of this conflict, but not the Russians are struggling and countries will likely be able to respond quicker than they would've, back when they were still busy planning out their initial response to Russia's invasion.

Xi Jinping: Alright, on the count of 3, we both invade at the same time. 1...
Putin: *Invades right away*
Xi Jinping: SHIT I WASN'T READY!
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Grim Portent

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #342 on: February 28, 2022, 05:48:25 pm »

Side note with particular relevance to the odds that this'll become the WWIII thread, I feel like the most opportune time for China to make any move on Taiwan has already come and gone. It would've been the best chance for escalating things back during the first couple days of this conflict, but not the Russians are struggling and countries will likely be able to respond quicker than they would've, back when they were still busy planning out their initial response to Russia's invasion.

The benefit China is likely to see from this is a Russia that's basically a client state of China. I imagine that Taiwan was never really going to be on the table no matter how this was going. Even if this went well for Russia it wouldn't actually provide an opening because a war for Ukraine that was already over wouldn't justify moving many US military assets to Europe that aren't already there, so while it would be a little distracting it wouldn't exactly leave the Pacific open to just do whatever in. Even an outright war with NATO would probably involve the mobilisation of US assets in the Pacific to counter Russia's East coast, which would not be a good time for China to make any moves.


I'm still rather surprised at just how bad the Russians have been in this invasion. Sending in troops with little to no foreknowledge of the invasion, often ones with no desire to even be involved, sending paratroopers into areas unsupported. Have they been gutting their military or something in the past few decades?
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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #343 on: February 28, 2022, 05:55:09 pm »

Side note with particular relevance to the odds that this'll become the WWIII thread, I feel like the most opportune time for China to make any move on Taiwan has already come and gone. It would've been the best chance for escalating things back during the first couple days of this conflict, but not the Russians are struggling and countries will likely be able to respond quicker than they would've, back when they were still busy planning out their initial response to Russia's invasion.

Xi Jinping: Alright, on the count of 3, we both invade at the same time. 1...
Putin: *Invades right away*
Xi Jinping: SHIT I WASN'T READY!

I'm just sitting here imagining a Leeroy Jenkins redub with lil' Putler and Winnie the Pooh.

On a totally unrelated note, it's been very interesting to watch this unfold from a political science perspective. This is the first serious test of the nonmilitary approach to stopping wars via what's essentially a geopolitical version of shunning, and in particular the first serious test of it against a subject that has meaningful connections to international trade and cultural exchange. It's looking to be surprisingly effective when there's a real multilateral commitment to harsh sanctions across the whole spectrum of international exchange, which makes me hopeful for the future of humanity. There's part of me that's still saying "I'd rather be drafted and have to abandon the life I've built than let my generation be remembered as another set of Neville Chamberlains that abandoned smaller countries to the tyranny of their more powerful neighbors", but the thought that we might have clawed together enough of a global community to stop a second-tier power from prosecuting wars of aggression without declaring war in return is sobering in a very good way.
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #344 on: February 28, 2022, 06:03:56 pm »

The benefit China is likely to see from this is a Russia that's basically a client state of China. I imagine that Taiwan was never really going to be on the table no matter how this was going. Even if this went well for Russia it wouldn't actually provide an opening because a war for Ukraine that was already over wouldn't justify moving many US military assets to Europe that aren't already there, so while it would be a little distracting it wouldn't exactly leave the Pacific open to just do whatever in. Even an outright war with NATO would probably involve the mobilisation of US assets in the Pacific to counter Russia's East coast, which would not be a good time for China to make any moves.


I'm still rather surprised at just how bad the Russians have been in this invasion. Sending in troops with little to no foreknowledge of the invasion, often ones with no desire to even be involved, sending paratroopers into areas unsupported. Have they been gutting their military or something in the past few decades?

It would've been a perfect time to invade yeah, even with the distraction it would've caused. There probably isn't any absolutely perfect time to do so, but I did suspect that this initial distraction would've been the closest to a good distraction China will see in a while, unless Putin creates a much bigger distraction in the form of nuclear war.
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