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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 110707 times)

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2205 on: January 26, 2022, 12:35:40 am »

25% chance of being Town is enough risk not to make it worthwhile. I just wish you'd explain yourself better. I couldn't even read your last "theory".

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2206 on: January 26, 2022, 12:36:53 am »

"25% chance of town" is a joke on your ability, which I think is fake.

Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2207 on: January 26, 2022, 12:41:41 am »

webadict, how about this. I'm going to track you tonight to prove that I can track. Don't claim your target until I do.
You can be a Tracker and still be Mafia.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2208 on: January 26, 2022, 12:42:52 am »

25% chance of being Town is enough risk not to make it worthwhile. I just wish you'd explain yourself better. I couldn't even read your last "theory".
"25% chance of town" is a joke on your ability, which I think is fake.
What?
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2209 on: January 26, 2022, 12:47:06 am »

@Roden: Isn't it true that Day 1 Max claimed to have a powerful role?
I mean honestly when Max revealed in the Neighborhood that he was just a Tracker, I was disappointed.

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2210 on: January 26, 2022, 12:52:42 am »

As for my preference for No Lynch, I'd rather use Toony's gift before making a vote that could end the game.
I'm surprised others don't want to use their stuff before ELO and avoid a less informative MLO.

webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2211 on: January 26, 2022, 01:02:38 am »

Alright, I apologize for being busy.

... I'm gonna get shit for this if I'm wrong, and I'm gonna deserve it.

Maximum Spin.

Mind explaining?
You know me, always suspicious. Just because Max is in the Neighborhood, doesn't mean I'm not getting played.
Although, I do think Max is town.
I don't see why not. To me, there are a few issues.

The first is that Maximum Spin seemed fine with a No Launch when he's certain that it's Roden, which is a bit of a deviation from his behavior on D2. This is not that big of a deal, since it's probably Mylo, which is definitely a fair excuse. It's minor, but I can't ignore it because I die Tonight, and that absolutely leaves an imbalance that I think is tipped by Maximum Spin and ToonyMan having privy access to you. No Launch certainly seems intuitively the right answer, but that doesn't answer what the actions that haven't been identified do are. It's very possible we're actually in Elo and don't know it. So, I'm taking a gamble.

The second is that I'm voting to see if Magma actually believes that Maximum Spin is scum. There isn't a team I can build out of anyone except Max and Euchre/Toony or Roden and Magma. None of the other teams work, and out of the two of those, the one that seems most plausible is the one that Max is on. Max made a convincing point that it's likely not Toony and Euchre, so I've eliminated that possibility for now. I'm making a play that confirms that the scumteam is one of those two in a somewhat risky manner. This means that there are no quickhammer possibilities, so long as I've correctly narrowed down the possibilities, and it also puts Magma in a spot that they need to convince the last Townie, and if they can't do that, then it's game over anyway.

The third is that Roden seems very convinced in their attitude, and if they're scum, they are playing it really close to the chest, and they've really improved. Certainly possible. Perhaps I overestimate Max and Toony's skill (or underestimate Roden's), and that will lead to my downfall, and if that's the case, it'll be determined tomorrow, but I'm pretty confident in their scum ability.

The fourth is that ToonyMan is very much playing reserved here, as Roden pointed out, and I think Roden is correct. I believe that Toony should absolutely be trying to solve this. Maximum Spin certainly has a solid reason to vote Roden, but it definitely looks as though he needs two people to follow up on that. It feels forceful.

And the final issue is my fifth point: I'm actually not 100% sure it's ToonyMan. Or you. But, sitting back and waiting for them to solve this is gonna do nothing. Heck, maybe it's Magma? But, if I read Roden right, and I think I do, then Maximum Spin has to be lying.

As for my preference for No Lynch, I'd rather use Toony's gift before making a vote that could end the game.
I'm surprised others don't want to use their stuff before ELO and avoid a less informative MLO.
Sometimes, you gotta aim high. I probably die Tonight unless ToonyMan has an extra vest in his bag of goodies, so I'm gonna put out what I think before I do. I think it's probably Max and Toony, but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

webadict, how about this. I'm going to track you tonight to prove that I can track. Don't claim your target until I do.
That would prove you're a Tracker, but might not necessarily prove you're Town. But, I'm like 99% sure I die Tonight either way, so it's not necessarily a bad plan.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2212 on: January 26, 2022, 01:05:20 am »

@Roden: Isn't it true that Day 1 Max claimed to have a powerful role?
I mean honestly when Max revealed in the Neighborhood that he was just a Tracker, I was disappointed.
That doesn't mean much tbh, you claimed you had a powerful role before and ended up being a Sandwich Vendor, lol. Why do you trust the Tracker claim but not the Cop claim when we have two Millers and a Motion Detector? And why do you think Max would be a higher priority target to me over anyone else?
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2213 on: January 26, 2022, 01:11:15 am »

It would help you greatly if you did not confuse me with Tric.

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2214 on: January 26, 2022, 01:16:49 am »

It's harder to fake a tracker claim than a cop claim.
Mafia can always fake a Cop claim, because they know who is town!
Faking Tracker requires either reporting on your scum buddy's movements or having some other investigation role.

Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2215 on: January 26, 2022, 01:19:01 am »

Oof, my bad, that was Tric. I think the general point still stands that claiming to have a powerful role =/= actually having a powerful role. And even then that doesn't explain why I would try to NK Max instead of the IC claim.
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2216 on: January 26, 2022, 01:23:56 am »

It's harder to fake a tracker claim than a cop claim.
Mafia can always fake a Cop claim, because they know who is town!
Faking Tracker requires either reporting on your scum buddy's movements or having some other investigation role.
Jack...Max only has one Tracker result, and he's using it to say I targeted Web instead of himself. Even disregarding how that's his only reason to think I'm scum and doesn't even implicate me in Jim's death, he has no real proof of his results.

Let me ask you something else. When did he claim I targeted Web? Before or after Web claimed his results? And did he ever mention his results in your hood chat?
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2217 on: January 26, 2022, 01:26:23 am »

Well, Jim didn't become town confirmed until Day 3. The actual timing was fine.

Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2218 on: January 26, 2022, 01:28:24 am »

Perhaps I overestimate Max and Toony's skill (or underestimate Roden's), and that will lead to my downfall, and if that's the case, it'll be determined tomorrow, but I'm pretty confident in their scum ability.
I'm being completely honest and speaking entirely outside the game when I say that this means a lot. However (back inside the game)... if you feel such confidence... why would I have done this? Surely I could've claimed I tracked Magma, or you, or anyone else to Jim. Tracking Roden to you doesn't even answer what action actually took place or, on its own, prove anyone's alignment, and removes the only thing ostensibly confirming me town. I could have just said... "oops, guess Toaster was just misinformed after all, but hey, look, [anyone else] is the killer!", especially since I waited till last to claim and explicitly asked people to claim before me. (I actually did this because of the non-conclusiveness of the result, as I wanted to give Roden the chance to convince me he was just doing a town play... he did not)
I know I bring some of this suspicion on myself since I like to half-brag about doing crazy gambits, but this isn't even a crazy gambit, this would just be a huge waste of time compared to the alternatives. I wouldn't waste the effort bringing the game to the crux of you personally picking who to believe if there were easier options available.

For the record, I'm okay with a no-lynch because the neighborhood convinced me that it's the best play. I was worried about it originally, but I realized that the mafia are actually in zugzwang here anyway and can't strictly improve their position in a no-lynch.


Oof, my bad, that was Tric. I think the general point still stands that claiming to have a powerful role =/= actually having a powerful role. And even then that doesn't explain why I would try to NK Max instead of the IC claim.
I actually never did claim to have a powerful role. I just said it was "useful". I didn't mean for people to read that much into it.
The reason you tried to NK me is twofold: One, I pointed out the trick of the UC claim, and explicitly identified the way to foil it. Two, you probably figured someone would protect Jim, just like actually happened in the game when we were scum together and decided to take out an IC Jim first night, just a handful of weeks ago. You couldn't have expected Toaster would end up doing his toasty thing instead. You were really lucky he took it completely the wrong way and fell into your lap like that (and yes, I acknowledge it's my fault for assuming he would know better as town, too).
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Roden

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R5, Day 3): Innocence Revealed In Blood
« Reply #2219 on: January 26, 2022, 01:34:00 am »

I'll respond in a bit Max, I just need these questions answered first.

Let me ask you something else. When did he claim I targeted Web? Before or after Web claimed his results? And did he ever mention his results in your hood chat?
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