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[Maximum Spin]

You, on the other hand, voted him in retaliation for his vote on you.

No, I voted him because I think he's scum.

Why do people persist in thinking I vote for literally any other reason?

[Roden]

@web: You got a result of 3 on EuchreJack, does that include yourself?

It does not. There is a third person that targeted EuchreJack that has not confessed.

Toony gave Jack an item, which Jack confirmed.
Jack Neighborized Max, which Max confirmed.
Web gave an accurate count on the number of actions affecting Jack, so his action is essentially accounted for.
Jim claims Day 3 IC with no abilities, he gets resolved tomorrow.
You blocked Max, which confirms both of your actions.

All that leaves is Magma Mater. If their action can be confirmed, then no one else could have made my action fail except you, by way of you lying and actually being Ascetic.

A bit unrelated, but if you are lying and are mafia, then the lack of NK may be because of either a delayed kill or an alternative passive killing method.

Well, technically, no, my action requires one more person to confirm me fully. Unless Maximum Spin actually did target EuchreJack, but that doesn't seem like it should if he was roleblocked.

I ended up messaging the mod about this, and unfortunately they couldn't confirm if someone who was Roleblocked would still visit their target. Though I was informed that visiting a Commuter wouldn't happen, but visiting an Ascetic would.

So right now, either someone isn't admitting to visiting Jack, which spews him as town, or you're giving fake results, which I don't have any reason to believe. If scum have Multitasking then I believe you're hard cleared as town though.

I still think Toaster is scum here because we can't account for the third person who targeted Jack, and with that in mind no one else would've been able to Roleblock me. Toaster is just Ascetic and lying about his role.

[Magma Mater]

Why did you target Jack, btw?

Jack has asked me not to claim until d3. I just thought it would be useful to do so.

To clarify, I've asked Max not to claim his role.  I also told Max to reveal that he targeted me.
The nature of that role should be reserved for after it actually gets used, whatever it might be.

Do you think that Max is town?

[Roden]

I don't think Toaster is scum here. I think it's very likely to be Maximum Spin, ToonyMan, or maybe Magma Mater.

You should be considering Roden, who was also apparently roleblocked.

Separately, let's be realistic, if I had been scum and tried to do the kill etc., I wouldn't have admitted to being roleblocked in my response, I would have claimed to have done an action, which my partner would seem to confirm, and, when/if Toaster claimed the roleblock, suggested that the action must have failed somehow. (Of course, I most likely wouldn't have been the one to do the kill, anyway; too much daytime visibility.) Unless you're suggesting that I'm solo scum in a setup with at least two roleblockers and no strongman ability to make up for it. I think it's more likely that there just aren't d1 kills for whatever reason again.

You immediately voted Toaster right after he claimed to have roleblocked you. If anything, it's possible that you initially overreacted. He had a very good reason to suspect you especially because, as you put it, he would have no reason to believe there isn't another kill method. So, assuming this, that's reasonable suspicion to think that you're scum. He's still Town in this instance.

You, on the other hand, voted him in retaliation for his vote on you. That does seem to indicate that you were OMGUSing based entirely on that. To me, you are the one that seems suspicious in this, not Toaster.

If I'm to say anything here, it's that Toaster's role is literally too suspicious to be scum, and while that's the stupidest thing I've ever said, I'm all in on that stupid fucking idea.

Or at least, Toaster's definitely not lying. Maybe he's scum. It just seems too stupid for him to be scum.

This could just be another Toony/McMiner situation from Totem Mafia. Toaster shouldn't be exempt from suspicion just because of his claimed role.

[Magma Mater]

@web: You got a result of 3 on EuchreJack, does that include yourself?

It does not. There is a third person that targeted EuchreJack that has not confessed.

Toony gave Jack an item, which Jack confirmed.
Jack Neighborized Max, which Max confirmed.
Web gave an accurate count on the number of actions affecting Jack, so his action is essentially accounted for.
Jim claims Day 3 IC with no abilities, he gets resolved tomorrow.
You blocked Max, which confirms both of your actions.

All that leaves is Magma Mater. If their action can be confirmed, then no one else could have made my action fail except you, by way of you lying and actually being Ascetic.

A bit unrelated, but if you are lying and are mafia, then the lack of NK may be because of either a delayed kill or an alternative passive killing method.

Well, technically, no, my action requires one more person to confirm me fully. Unless Maximum Spin actually did target EuchreJack, but that doesn't seem like it should if he was roleblocked.

?? You're forgetting to count yourself bro

[Magma Mater]

also, please read my posts 

[Toaster]

Magma Mater:

If we treat Max and Toaster as a dichotomy

Unwise.

I'd lean toward Toaster being scum. His reaction of immediately accusing and voting for Max makes me think that, in his mind, he'd already set up the day's lynch. The thought of other factors potentially causing the lack of kill (including arsonist, or even a simple doctor) should have given him pause, I think, until he had more information.

Or I, knowing something I haven't yet disclosed (but I'm about to), wanted to hit Max for maximum pressure to see how he reacted.

I would also like to hear an explanation as to why Max was blocked. He seems like the kind of person you block as a scum RB because it'll always be plausible that you "thought he was scum", whereas a town RB who's thinking about which of two scum would perform the kill probably would not choose Max.

Already answered, but TLDR Toony, my #1 pick for scum, was already set up to confirm his role by handing out an ability.  I let that happen and blocked my #2 pick, Maximum Spin.

Magma Mater:  I'm also going to need to see more justification of your vote on NJW.  Why was his vote on me bad?

I believe Toaster's null-claim... there does seem to be a weird theme this game, and falseclaiming a confirmable investigation-blocker against an unreliable cop would be insanity. On the other hand, I don't think it clears them... I've BEEN ascetic scum, for example. NAI.

I know I always complain about there being too much in each day, but I do feel like I don't have enough information from people this time. On the basis of a number of very weak factors, such as our not having seen much input from them, Toaster.

It's this passage that made me uneasy. In the first paragraph, he talks about how Toaster's claim makes sense in this setup specifically because there are lots of investigatives and whatnot. Then in the second paragraph, he votes for Toaster for weak factors, basically something that would apply to people other than Toaster. I'd have thought that the first paragraph would be enough to leave Toaster out of the PoE for at least a day, in NJW's mind.

That's better reasoning than from D1.  All noted.


Maximum Spin:

Separately, let's be realistic, if I had been scum and tried to do the kill etc., I wouldn't have admitted to being roleblocked in my response, I would have claimed to have done an action, which my partner would seem to confirm, and, when/if Toaster claimed the roleblock, suggested that the action must have failed somehow. (Of course, I most likely wouldn't have been the one to do the kill, anyway; too much daytime visibility.)

Straight WIFOM.




Important claim update

I have an addition to make to my claim.  Yes, I blocked Maximum Spin, but the kicker is that I am a Jailkeeper.  Maximum Spin was blocked and protected.  As stated, I went after him hard at the outset to get reactions from him (and everyone else.)  Having gotten all the available reactions, it's time to give the full action.

For the record, I also asked Fallacy if I would know if I prevented a kill, and the answer is no.


So let's give all these reactions some analysis.

Maximum Spin:  Not great, really.  His immediate reaction is to accuse me of setting him up, in lieu of any other option.  Next post he's emphatically calling me Mafia, ostensibly firmly convinced of my scummitude.  This smells of caught scum.

ToonyMan:  Hard chainsaw defense of Maximum Spin.  This feels wrong coming from Toony, especially how he doesn't consider any other option at all.

Webadict:  Believes my claim.  Goes straight for the Spin vote; had some suspicion of him late D1.  I'm heavily biased here, so probably more important is Web's reaction to this post.

EuchreJack:  Sits and ponders my claim, then questions the base reasoning of me targeting Spin.  This is a solid analytical play.  Pretty sure EJ is town, honestly.

Roden:  Claims to be roleblocked as well.  Is surprised by two claimed roleblocks.  Is analyzing situation.  Good look.  PPE:  Has voted me now.  Still reasoning out his thoughts.  Still good look.

Jim:  No comment, but claims to be distracted.  Unfortunate.

Magma:  Suspects me over Spin.  Backs up his reasoning well enough.  Misses the obvious pressure of my vote, but I don't attribute that to being scum.  Fine response.


Starting to wonder if Jim's telling the truth.  He's claimed no action, but SOMEBODY blocked Roden.  I don't see any other source of lie.


So here's the big obvious question.  Do *I* believe the lack of NK was due to Spin being protected instead of blocked?  Well... it's possible, yes.  I need to run over a few scenarios (like figuring out who else could have blocked Roden, who would have targeted Town!Spin, who Scum!Spin's scumbuddy is, etc.)  I want to get this out (short days lololo) but I've got to do some thinking.

[ToonyMan]

I'm home now, but my computer is having issues booting so I'm trying to deal with that. I'll try to work on my big case post tonight after I fix this issue.

Here's what I wrote during N1:

Spoiler: N1 notes (click to show/hide)

webadict - claimed Motion Detector fourth
Jack - claimed Neighborizer third
Max - no claim, came in between webadict and Magma
Roden - claimed Unreliable Cop second
Jim - claimed Day 3 Innocent last
Magma - fakeclaimed Ninja Fruit Vendor fifth, no claim in reality
Toony - Inventor, I claimed sixth
Toaster - claimed "Null Miller" seventh, although later says it's not called miller and seems more like ascetic

NJW - Miller Magpie, claimed miller first as a partial claim


Claim Order:
1. NJW - was the truth
2. Roden - sounds true
3. Jack - sounds true
4. webadict - sounds false
5. Magma - was false
6. Toony - it's true, although I haven't shared what I can make
7. Toaster - only partially similar to NJW
8. Jim - sounds true

Max hasn't claimed

Out of this Magma and Max are complete unknowns and Toaster is a partial unknown. Everyone else is probably telling the truth although I believe Webadict the least.

Day 1 results:
Most of us voted NJW who was town. Jack said I thought Toaster was town but this isn't true. I suspect Toaster and Webadict the most still. Toaster looks really fishy to me with NJW flipping town and Webadict was unwilling to vote them, instead trying to lead yet another wagon on a player, this time NJW which actually stuck. They tried this same shit on Magma and then me earlier in the Day. I would still prefer Webadict over Toaster currently as Toaster hasn't hit all the scumtells I thought of before game start while Webadict has actively been harmful.

Night 1 thoughts:
I need to decide who to give and what. I have a certain item that's priority number one to give out if it works. I can't say what it is in these notes because I plan on sharing this tomorrow and it's important what I give is unknown. As long as I avoid giving items to mafia then we're good I think. The player I give an item to should claim they received something, but not what it is.

[Magma Mater]

Right now, a PoE of 3 (probably) solves the game.

I have webadict, EuchreJack, and Jim as very likely to be town. web and Euchre are a little all over the place, which is an obvious town tell. Jim likely wouldn't claim the role he did as scum? Seems like a silly role regardless.

Of the rest of you...

@Max: If you forget about the Toaster thing for a minute, who are your top scum reads? Who would you have voted yesterday, had you been around? Why did you think that NJW was obvtown?

@Roden: Can you please explain the Toony/McMiner situation? And, do you think that Toaster's play has been scummy disregarding his role claim?

@Toaster: Can you please confirm with the moderator what a cop would receive when attempting to inspect you? Specifically, ask whether they would receive "null" or "no result". Regarding the jailkeeper claim... I suppose if you're town, that means it's very likely that the mafia do not have an arsonist, recruit, or delayed kill ability, do you agree? I have no objection to the partial claim, but now I understand even less why you chose to target Max over a player who was more likely to perform / draw the kill. Did you give any thought to that aspect of your role before choosing a target?
Also, please target Jim tonight for obvious reasons.

@Toony: Still looking forward to your thoughts on the Toaster/web team you've proposed.

[Toaster]

Straight from the role PM, it says investigative roles will receive NULL RESULT.  This is from direct or indirect abilities, for what it's worth.

Regarding the jailkeeper claim... I suppose if you're town, that means it's very likely that the mafia do not have an arsonist, recruit, or delayed kill ability, do you agree?

Hmmm.... yeah, that does seem pretty reasonable.  Unless Fallacy is just screwing with us... is that something he's done in past games in this series?

Did you give any thought to that aspect of your role before choosing a target?
Also, please target Jim tonight for obvious reasons.

I did, actually.  Web was my choice other on that front since I (at first) misunderstood his role and thought he just got info on who visited him and that he'd be a likely target.  I also considered that Toony's a potential NK target as well (except he's scummy).

Jim's a pretty good target choice.  It's certainly possible but I don't much want to pre-confirm this sort of role targeting.

[ToonyMan]

Well I've got some time now while I reinstall Windows.

First some responses to new posts...

@Toaster:

So you are proposing that Scum!Toaster and friend decided to- in a nine player game- skip the kill N1 in order to frame a townie D2?  This gets them a easy lynch in exchange for... heat on Scum!Me all the rest of the game and then a probably no lynch later on to give the town an extra day avoiding MYLO?  All this above option B: just kill someone?  Is there a gain for this theoretical scum team that I'm just not seeing?  It seems like an awfully bad trade for no real reason.

It makes sense if mafia couldn't kill last night or have a nonstandard kill.

And finally, you consider this likely over the possibility that Maximum Spin tried to kill someone and got blocked by me?

It's possible, but I read Max as town. He was my second choice for giving an item over Jack I would say.


@Webadict:

If I'm to say anything here, it's that Toaster's role is literally too suspicious to be scum, and while that's the stupidest thing I've ever said, I'm all in on that stupid fucking idea.

What does this even mean

Or at least, Toaster's definitely not lying. Maybe he's scum. It just seems too stupid for him to be scum.

Why is Toaster definitely not lying?

[EuchreJack]

Reads List:
Toonyman: Gave me stuff, so I think is Town.  May be ego, as otherwise Toonyman thinks I'm a complete moron that can be counted out to misuse whatever he gave me to benefit the mafia team.  So yeah, I at least am almost totally convinced Toonyman is town.
Jim: We'll know tomorrow if Jim is scum.  So probably Town.  Also, I'm not getting a mafia!Jim read, but rather a town!Jim read.
MaximumSpin: This is just my admitting that since Max has a private chat to brainwash me, I will likely town read him.
Roden: Seems honest in his use of his power, and seems to be using it to benefit town.  Town reading.

So my 3-person POE are:
Magma Mater: Hasn't claimed yet.  Which is either mafia that is struggling to make up a fake claim, a cop that found nothing, or a soft claim that they prevented the kill somehow.  Damn, I really should have given Magma the radio.
webadict: Web being web, actually hasn't posted enough for me to get a read.  Does seem to be pushing cases more than looking for scum.
Toaster: Null Investigative result AND Jailkeeper? Give me a break, Toaster.  Just claim Godfather Roleblocker and save us some time.

[EuchreJack]

@Toonyman: Are you SURE you don't want me to say what I got? It would help me figure out how to use it...

[Toaster]

Toaster: Null Investigative result AND Jailkeeper? Give me a break, Toaster.  Just claim Godfather Roleblocker and save us some time.

Why is this so hard to believe?  The former part doesn't really help me as Town; if anything it casts suspicion on me.

[webadict]

@web: You got a result of 3 on EuchreJack, does that include yourself?

It does not. There is a third person that targeted EuchreJack that has not confessed.

Toony gave Jack an item, which Jack confirmed.
Jack Neighborized Max, which Max confirmed.
Web gave an accurate count on the number of actions affecting Jack, so his action is essentially accounted for.
Jim claims Day 3 IC with no abilities, he gets resolved tomorrow.
You blocked Max, which confirms both of your actions.

All that leaves is Magma Mater. If their action can be confirmed, then no one else could have made my action fail except you, by way of you lying and actually being Ascetic.

A bit unrelated, but if you are lying and are mafia, then the lack of NK may be because of either a delayed kill or an alternative passive killing method.

Well, technically, no, my action requires one more person to confirm me fully. Unless Maximum Spin actually did target EuchreJack, but that doesn't seem like it should if he was roleblocked.

?? You're forgetting to count yourself bro

I've highlighted the section you missed.

No, I don't count in the 3. I get a ping for each instance of a person actioning and being actioned (other than myself, which would be a bit silly).

It's quite possible that EuchreJack is the other Roleblocker? I was going to say that'd explain the ping, but it'd actually not because EuchreJack then used another action on top of it, which still leaves the action economy unresolved.

Important claim update

I have an addition to make to my claim.  Yes, I blocked Maximum Spin, but the kicker is that I am a Jailkeeper.  Maximum Spin was blocked and protected.  As stated, I went after him hard at the outset to get reactions from him (and everyone else.)  Having gotten all the available reactions, it's time to give the full action.

For the record, I also asked Fallacy if I would know if I prevented a kill, and the answer is no.


So let's give all these reactions some analysis.

Maximum Spin:  Not great, really.  His immediate reaction is to accuse me of setting him up, in lieu of any other option.  Next post he's emphatically calling me Mafia, ostensibly firmly convinced of my scummitude.  This smells of caught scum.

ToonyMan:  Hard chainsaw defense of Maximum Spin.  This feels wrong coming from Toony, especially how he doesn't consider any other option at all.

Webadict:  Believes my claim.  Goes straight for the Spin vote; had some suspicion of him late D1.  I'm heavily biased here, so probably more important is Web's reaction to this post.

EuchreJack:  Sits and ponders my claim, then questions the base reasoning of me targeting Spin.  This is a solid analytical play.  Pretty sure EJ is town, honestly.

Roden:  Claims to be roleblocked as well.  Is surprised by two claimed roleblocks.  Is analyzing situation.  Good look.  PPE:  Has voted me now.  Still reasoning out his thoughts.  Still good look.

Jim:  No comment, but claims to be distracted.  Unfortunate.

Magma:  Suspects me over Spin.  Backs up his reasoning well enough.  Misses the obvious pressure of my vote, but I don't attribute that to being scum.  Fine response.


So here's the big obvious question.  Do *I* believe the lack of NK was due to Spin being protected instead of blocked?  Well... it's possible, yes.  I need to run over a few scenarios (like figuring out who else could have blocked Roden, who would have targeted Town!Spin, who Scum!Spin's scumbuddy is, etc.)  I want to get this out (short days lololo) but I've got to do some thinking.

My reasoning is that I was pretty sure you were Town, and I very much wasn't a fan of Maximum Spin's reaction. I'm down to vote out Maximum Spin here. I still feel like a Maximum Spin/ToonyMan team explains everything, and that ToonyMan might be giving out guns to kill people.

@Webadict:

If I'm to say anything here, it's that Toaster's role is literally too suspicious to be scum, and while that's the stupidest thing I've ever said, I'm all in on that stupid fucking idea.

What does this even mean

Or at least, Toaster's definitely not lying. Maybe he's scum. It just seems too stupid for him to be scum.

Why is Toaster definitely not lying?

Because the best lie is either something that's only barely a lie or dramatically a lie. And for the most part, I think there's only a few players in this game that'd make dramatic lies, and they're you, me, and... honestly, I think that's it. I was gonna say Fallacy, but he's not technically a player, so that's it out of all of us. Toaster tends to go for different plays as scum that rely more on laying in the shadows, so claiming something like Null-Investigative just seems like a Towntell to me, and combining this with immediately claiming the roleblock which explains why there's no kill is, like, a no-brainer to me?

So, in short, it means that if Toaster claimed Purple Rhinoceros Butt as his role, I'd fucking believe it because that's too stupid to be fake. Like why I believe Jim. It's such a dumb thing to lie about.