My individual reads on each player:
ToonyMan - Town for reasons I've already stated. I honestly still have some paranoia here, and I don't feel great about him continuing to include me in the PoE when I should be an easy town read, but I'm choosing to ignore that for now. If he's a wolf then I'll just blame the moderator post-game for messing with my reads.
EuchreJack - Town based on his willingness to engage with and apply pressure to other players and interact with nearly everyone. His reads have changed often throughout the game, which is something I think can be expected of town.
Roden - I have a town read on Roden, but I'm colouring him yellow to show that my read on him isn't as strong as my read on Jack or Toony. I liked Roden's answers to my initial questions, and I think that the BP conversation is not something he'd do as a wolf. I dislike his recent focus on me, it's shortsighted and there isn't a real effort to deduce the wolf team. It feels like he's only thinking of today, which is what wolves would be doing since they only need the one mislynch to win, whereas townies need to catch both wolves today and tomorrow to win. Overall, I do still believe that he's town, but I could see him being a wolf trying to get the last mislynch he needs for the win.
prefuzek - Difficult to read because he's only made 10 posts. Something I noticed is that he's had trouble justifying his scum reads. In
this post his scum read of hedgerow is non-committal, his scum read of EuchreJack is due to him not being erratic enough (not quantifiable), and his scum read of Toony was due to him not appearing as normal, which he backed down from when challenged. He also voted for FoU over hedgerow despite giving a scum read on both, which I find suspicious because it could be an attempt to stay away from something he knows is a mislynch. If he's town I'd like for him to post more often today if possible, because ten posts is really difficult to form a solid read off of.
FallacyOfUrist - To start with, I didn't like webadict's posts. I think I was giving him the benefit of the doubt at the time due to how I felt about ToonyMan, but on a read-through under the assumption that Toony is town, webadict comes off looking pretty bad. He had a really emotional reaction to Toony scum reading him, which I don't think seems reasonable if web is town who thinks Toony is scum. I would expect him to lean / insist more heavily on the idea that Toony is scum, rather than come up with these insane scenarios where he gets himself lynched. And then when FoU replaced in, he makes a post that is mostly filler, with a smattering of relevant material. I also don't get why he forces Jack to make a case on someone when he is town reading Jack - it reads like he's intentionally provoking Jack into a fight with someone else (possibly specifically Roden). Finally, he's chosen to take prefuzek off the table based solely on the fact that he wasn't voting for hedgerow at the end of the day, but from his PoV he should be thinking that prefuzek also voted for town at EoD. I don't see why he would clear prefuzek for that reason.
Given my town read on ToonyMan, here are the possible pairings between EuchreJack, prefuzek, FallacyOfUrist & Roden, where 1 is very unlikely and 5 is very likely:
| | EuchreJack | | |
| prefuzek | 2 | prefuzek | |
| FallacyOfUrist | 3 | 3 | FallacyOfUrist |
| Roden | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Roden / FoU team is very unlikely (
1) due to webadict's response to Roden after his replacement was announced. I think that would be an unnecessarily harsh way to treat a teammate. It also seems like a legitimately emotional reaction, which again is unlikely from a partner. There's also the fact that FoU provoked Jack into attacking Roden, which would be an odd thing for a partner to do.
Roden / EuchreJack team is very unlikely (
1) due to the argument they had earlier in the game. Neither of them had great arguments and the beef seemed to evaporate shortly thereafter, but I still think it's not a natural wolf/wolf interaction to start town-reading each other after an "argument".
EuchreJack / prefuzek team is unlikely (
2) due to the way that Euchre latched onto my points against prefuzek. I don't think that's the way that scum attacks their partner... usually they want to come up with their own points in order to get full credit for them. Attacking your partner using someone else's case is not very useful generally.
EuchreJack / FoU team is somewhat likely (
3) due to Jack's offer to vote for FoU at the end of the day if hedgerow would vote there first. I'm conflicted on this, hence the 3. On one hand, if they are paired, this could have been a very bad deal for Euchre. On the other hand, since hedgerow didn't vote there we don't know whether Jack would have actually followed through on his promise, or if he would have "accidentally" left the votes tied at the end of the day. I am counting it as a slight point against a Jack / FoU team; without it, I'd rate this pairing a 4.
FoU / prefuzek team is somewhat likely (
3) due to the vote prefuzek placed on FoU near the end of the day. I'm not entirely ruling this team out, however, because if they are a pair it's possible that prefuzek thought that his one vote on FoU wouldn't lead to anything. There's also the matter of webadict forgetting to add prefuzek to his reads list.
Roden / prefuzek team is likely (
4) due to the lack of meaningful interactions between them. They mention each other once each: Roden gives a null read on pref in a reads list, and prefuzek gives Roden a prob town read in a reads list. This, combined with Roden's insistence that I'm a guaranteed wolf because FoU / pref cannot both be wolves has me raising my eyebrows.
Blue's reads:
FoU said this in his
first post of the game... "You [prefuzek] and BluarianKnight are scary good, imo." This could be motivation for FoU to submit a kill on Blue, if he's being honest. It's possible he was trying to get Blue out of the game before he had a chance to share many of his thoughts.
Blue also said that EuchreJack is a wolf and that he's 100x more aggressive than usual.
I don't see anything in Blue's posts that indicate he could have been a power role. I don't think I'm missing anything (there isn't a lot there to go through) so his death implicates one or both of the above.
Conclusion:
I'm going to go with my individual reads and say that the pair is FoU and prefuzek. I think the correct vote for me given my pairing analysis is prefuzek, but obviously I want to hear more from everyone before I make a decision.
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Topic: MATRIX6- Magic Tric Newbie Mafia 4/9 [Eruption: Fallacy of Logic- Hackers Win] (Read 51537 times)