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[Jim Groovester]

FallacyofUrist. Ignoring the POE I think it's FoU. Considering the POE I think FoU is still the likeliest possibility.

the POE

Awesome, spares me the effort of doing it myself.

If it's not FoU then the game gets a lot more interesting and complicated but I don't want to spend brainpower on that until it happens.

[ToonyMan]

Everyone should say what their items are and when they got them too I think. This will force the mafia to lie again.

Class claims:
Toony - Random Warrior
Tric - Random Bard
FoU - normal? Archeologist
Jim - Random Scavenger
NQT - Random Scavenger

Pref - Random Bard
Jack - ?? Merchant
Blue - Random Warrior
Web - ?? Ranger

[FallacyofUrist]

Right, let me get you the answers to all your questions.

@FallacyofUrist:
You're my #1 scum pick. Who's the mafia and why?

I'll get to this.

Ugh... I'm of the opinion we should skip this day, FoU, can I ask what effect was applied to you?

There's no mechanical indication in my night result PM that I was hit with anything. This could be because the random effect chosen was one that was irrelevant due to me not taking a night action, however.

Fallacy, you're claiming to have no items left, correct?

I have a Potion of Volume. If I receive a usable item in today's search, assuming I'm not executed, I'll try to use the potion to make my action public. I have no other items.

Everyone should say what their items are and when they got them too I think. This will force the mafia to lie again.

Right.

I selected (not randomed) Archeologist. I quested both Day 1 and Day 2, and received a Scroll of Joined Fate Day 1 and a Potion of Volume Day 2. The item gacha has not been cooperative.

Okay, that's the information given. Now to get to who I think is scum.

[FallacyofUrist]

One: Process of Elimination
ToonyMan claims to have used a Scroll of Attraction on TricMagic and I. TricMagic confirms being redirected, as I did not act I can't confirm it as well but this ought to be good enough. This would be further confirmed if Tric's Scroll of Ill Will effect was something that showed up in my actual results, but it did not. I'd like to confirm something with Toaster, though, before I say this for absolute certain.

Jim Groovester claims to have used a Scroll of Protection on NQT. NQT claims to have protected (no specific item listed?) ToonyMan. Neither of these are confirmable, correct me if I'm wrong.

Am I scummy-looking as heck? Absolutely. But if you accept Toony is telling the truth, I can't have performed the kill. Unless I'm a very lucky Ranger.

Two: Bluarian's Elimination

Literally everyone was voting BluarianKnight at the end of Day 2. Let's take a look at everyone's vote justifications, though.

You cowards.

I guess I'll end it myself.

Shorten.
Bluarianknight.

Deciding to finish the job.

BluearianKnight and Shorten.

I think it's BK/FoU but BK/Tric and BK/web are possible, at least by my reading of the game at the end of Day 1.

No justification given?

Also Blu bungled his fakeclaim by saying he used the scroll of swapping on one player, as it would require two targets. Nice, nice.

Oh. Yeah, that's pretty definitive, isn't it.

BluarianKnight.

Because of Bluarian's slip regarding the scroll of swapping fakeclaim.

Note: NQT was the one to point this out.

Oh, and also, BluarianKnight

Uh. Webadictness?

Anyway, BluarianKnight, you have some explaining to do.

Note: swapped from:

That votecount does make me think a NQT/Toony setup is viable though. Main point is NQT is the lynchpin.

I think NQT swayed Tric to vote Bluarian.

Looking at the end of day switches might still be instructive, especially once we get a mafia flip. If, as is likely, mafia were trying to avoid a Blu lynch, then might be interesting to see when they stopped in the CFD.

BluarianKnight

Note: NQT was the one to start the Bluarian wagon. As far as I'm concerned, as much as I've had misgivings earlier, this practically clears them.

BluarianKnight

'Who else could have killed Jack'.

Consider how late Jim Groovester voted Bluarian, and how early NQT voted Bluarian.

Yes, I also joined the wagon late. I acknowledge this. But if it's not me, then it's gotta be Jim Groovester.

[TricMagic]

FoU. There is only a 40% chance of that happening, and my flavor shows that the cloud did hit you.

More likely, you got hit by the redirect portion of the effect. I was asking cause one of the effects would have been poison. Would Poison or Curse Armor show up on report to the player?

On the other hand, ninja'd by actually work. Which is still more than NQT has done.

[ToonyMan]

How does Ill Will work? What are the exact effects?

[TricMagic]

Of Note, Toony pretty much made it so FoU is extremely unlikely to have done the kill, and I didn't do it. By elimination, only NQT and Jim are valid lynches today, with the other getting roleblocked by Toony. If Toony doesn't do this, then they are mafia. Can we all agree not to use any redirect items tonight?


Ill Will can cause the target to be roleblocked, redirected at random, cause them to lose a random item, inflict Curse Armor, or inflict Poison. FoU would have needed to get very lucky to do anything last night, since only one of those effects could have messed with your action.

[FallacyofUrist]

But let's be realistic. Cleared or not, I still look scummier here. So, if y'all do execute me, I'd like to suggest that someone roleblock Jim Groovester. You should see no kill the Day after that, if I'm right. Toony still has that claimed Wand of Paralysis.

To summarize reads:

NQT: Totally clear, started the wagon on Bluarian without Bluarian looking hyper-scummy on the end of Day 1.
TricMagic + ToonyMan: Mechanically clear, judging by Toony's claimed redirect and Tric claiming to be redirected. Not 100%, since there are mechanical ways around redirection.
Fallacy: Hypothetically mechanically clear, but scummy behavior.
Jim Groovester: Latest voter onto Bluarian's wagon, no justification given, not mechanically cleared.

How does Ill Will work? What are the exact effects?

Ill Will is basically 'random negative effect'. I believe it's from a pool of randomization, roleblocking, armor cursing, poisoning, and item loss. I can say I received no notification of losing an item. However, without knowing the exact mechanics, I can't say whether I'd be notified about the first two if I performed no action, and the second two in general. I'd suggest asking Toaster about it. Might even be viable as a public question, asked as a hypothetical.

[ToonyMan]

Why would Jim save NQT on D1 by attacking Bluarian? It's so anti-mafia and I don't think Jim has the brain power for it.

But yes, if you flip town I will block Jim tonight.

[FallacyofUrist]

... NQT, based upon this it's between you and Jim. Nowhere to run, since if we miss, we still have tomorrow, barring a daykill weapon.

Basically? It's nonsensical to vote NQT at this stage. As much as I thought he looked scummy early Day 1, he's proved his innocence by starting the execution wagon against BluarianKnight far earlier than it would be reasonable to do so as a scum partner. It would be a nonsensically insane bus for him to have taken down Bluarian that hard, that early. If anything he probably could have saved Bluarian if he was Bluarian's partner, I suspect.

But yes, if you flip town I will block Jim tonight.

After everyone's fully claimed, I'm fine with self-voting and shortening, if y'all want to speed this day along.

[TricMagic]

I'm still wondering if Blue got frames and Toony is just pushing things along to win tomorrow. Self-voting isn't going to help much, given Mafia can just skip tomorrow night and then we lynch the one who got blocked. Or kill someone anyway, given they have two people.

As of right now, NQT or Jim.

[ToonyMan]

After everyone's fully claimed, I'm fine with self-voting and shortening, if y'all want to speed this day along.

I would prefer to be right personally.

I'm still wondering if Blue got frames and Toony is just pushing things along to win tomorrow.

I'm mechanically cleared from your POV Tric. Who redirected you last night?

[TricMagic]

After everyone's fully claimed, I'm fine with self-voting and shortening, if y'all want to speed this day along.

I would prefer to be right personally.

I'm still wondering if Blue got frames and Toony is just pushing things along to win tomorrow.

I'm mechanically cleared from your POV Tric. Who redirected you last night?

You didn't read the first half toony? If Blue was framed, then of course you could redirect us into each other while you partner 'protected' someone.(read kill) Or your partner did the redirect while you did the kill, though if Blue was town wouldn't be surprised if they set you for the Potion of Insurance..

[FallacyofUrist]

... ffs

Tric. This is not a bastard mafia game. There are no death millers here. You can read the whole item list and verify that, even in the artifacts section, nothing can falsify a roleflip.

[TricMagic]

K...

Still, there isn't a good reason to actually lynch FoU other than scumminess. If you remember he made a roleclaim quite early.

Yeah it's a good argument Toony. If Web had the scroll still (as he believed) and it wasn't used up when blocked then now I think on it, it's likely he'd attempt to do the exact same thing with it. It would have left him with a confirmable action if he wasn't killed.

Fallacy behaviourally fits better for scum, favouring one narrow target and then forcing a prefuzek wagon based on that. Jim needlessly imperiled his teammate on D1 if he was scum.

Of note, NQT says reasons why Jim isn't scum, and tries to push for Fal to be lynched. But tomorrow he'll likely try to push for Jim to be lynched. Behavioral pattern applies to NQT here, only looking to push a single lynch. What did he do yesterday that was different from this? Him pushing a bus doesn't mean much given he was on the chopping block before then and blue was taking a lot of heat.