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[Caz]

dfGDAKFJALSDKJ fucking internet keeps blowing up my post. I am gonna post more in a bit but running short of time today.



1.  web's elaborate coin lie based upon how NQT acted in their first posts (the lucky coin flip reference) - a way to signal to NQT somehow?

2. web dumbtelling over not knowing how the game works (it's in the first post of the game) even though web won't answer questions about his own games if he already answered them in the main post.

3. web's VAST overreaction (including threatening to quit the game) when this dumbtelling is immediately jumped on as uncharacteristic behaviour.

4. (I like this one, because it's only because you said "look caz is being more playful after I accused them of being serious" (I disagree with this, btw, my playfulness quotient has been pretty level throughout I think) - BUT, this made me think of how I noticed and said that web was too non-aggressive to be town!web. after that, I come back to a LITANY of posts (remember the aforementioned angry reaction at not being believed? IS that genuine or just a ploy for the game?) Web even says we aren't allowed to criticise his actions because they're apparently NAI. How can you read someone if you don't, well, READ them?

5. not even caring if Blu is in the game or not. as the traitor has a natural ally, they are less likely to care about convincing people that they are town.

[webadict]

1. You should consider saying that Blu is the ally. There's no need to stick to NQT anymore. It is okay to change you mind about things partway through. That's an inherent part of the Mafia experience, and it's one that Mafia have a hard time adapting to.

The problem here is if you keep saying NQT is the ally, then you're lending credence to Blu's arguments and you believe them to be Town. NQT has been continually defending you, and it gives FoU room to doubt because you say Blu's arguments have merit by doing so.

2. Seems like a miscategorization of my modding style. I will typically answer a question unless I have literally answered it multiple times within a certain timeframe. You should quote places where I was dumbtelling and show how they match here. I am actually waiting because I will show you where I wasn't (The One I Cannot Kill).

I think it is an unfortunate thing to attack someone for not knowing something, and to use that as evidence is a low blow. I think anyone that does should be held to a higher standard. There is a difference between our two attacks, and it is that I made mine, whereas you exploited yours.

I will always remember this. Just like I remember Vector's.

3. It was not a vast overreaction. I told you exactly what I felt. Or, are you saying that your logic controls your emotions and not the opposite? Making bad faith argjments wins the battle, but it will lose you the war.

You could say that it is manipulative. That would be fair. But, the crux of the argument is that I never make small mistakes, then it is fundamentally uncounterable and belays that if I ever do make a mistake, I should immediately stop playing forever. What do I say that doesn't involve me showing you my own embarrassments? I basically have to prove that I am human by showing myself as vulnerable. That's puts me in a place where quitting is literally the more fun way to play.

The long and short of it is... Why not look at how I play and compare it? Why not look at how Caz plays and compare it? Why rely on me having to prove I make mistakes and dredge them up?

4. Please point to a game where I started out 100% aggro. Please provide any evidence at all. I have a great memory, and I provide evidence. Why can't you? Why is this such a teeth pull? Just say a game. Just say any game! I will prove that you are wrong. Because you are.

Your playfulness is a gamestarting attitude. You keep it throughout the game until you fall under suspicion, and then you OMGUS hard. That's why it's weird you're not suspected BK. You usually OMGUS as Town. Want proof? MVM2. COD (On phone so assume that I know what the 5p one is here because I think it's called Caves of Dashur but can'tcheck without losing my post, but I know being wrong and not prechecking for accuracy is apparently scummy to people.) P26. You do it all the time.

5. Miscategorization of what I said. You wanted BluarianKnight's input on the situation, but their input doesn't matter because you literally should know I'm scum. What that signals is you care what they think of you, and not about showing I'm scum.

This is also a problem with Mafia. They have a hard time convincing themselves of something that should be a fact. You know I am Town, and thus you must pretend. I don't have to because I know the truth.

[webadict]

Sadly, I doubt either FoU or NQT will post, and that will be a steady loss for me.

FoU, if you truly think Caz is Town, why do they think NQT is the ally?
The question is easily answered if you take their mindset as scum. It is harder to answer otherwise.

If they think NQT is the ally, then they should be under the impression they are losing, since NQT would swap to me last second, no?

Caz's mindset is not one of Town. NQT's mindset is not one of Town. These should be readily visible to anyone paying attention.

[FallacyofUrist]

No no, I owe you this much. The worst thing I can do as town is leave the thread untouched. Because until the game ends, nobody is confirmed as the traitor, so even if I think Caz is more likely town at the moment, at the very least I owe you a thorough reading of your own arguments. I think that's fairer to the players and the host.

Gimme a bit.

[notquitethere]

Rest assured, I'll be reading back and reconsidering the arguments before the day's end.

[Caz]

Weird how you're saying that I'm hard to read here. I'd say that'd be evidence that you should be AGREEING. If you're Town, then them reading you should literally be a no-brainer. You're an easy read! webadict? That guy is an enigma and possibly a Soviet-era robot developed to handle nuclear warhead launches.

You literally referenced a joke based on how IN THAT THREAD you pretended to be a sk (moderator). You're just taking stuff out of context again. Do I have to watch what I say about you in the BANTER THREAD just so you won't somehow use it as evidence of how I should act in-game? the fuck.

[Caz]

To me all this shows is that you are desperately looking for some way to convince people because you can't do it with my actions in this game. Which is the only thing that should matter, IMO.

[webadict]

To me all this shows is that you are desperately looking for some way to convince people because you can't do it with my actions in this game. Which is the only thing that should matter, IMO.

I'm sorry you feel that way.

One of us has evidence and the other doesn't.

[webadict]

You literally referenced a joke based on how IN THAT THREAD you pretended to be a sk (moderator). You're just taking stuff out of context again. Do I have to watch what I say about you in the BANTER THREAD just so you won't somehow use it as evidence of how I should act in-game? the fuck.

So, then you admit that I am not hard to read?

[webadict]

Also Caz, are you still going to say NQT is the ally, or do you want to swap to BK yet? You can always curveball with FoU. Heck, I was willing to suspect both of them. You could do that to all three.

Still gonna see no posts. Caz, if you think NQT is the ally, then you either think they think you're scum (Which is what I believe), or you're thinking they will last minute swap. So you should be trying to court BK.

Why am I talking to myself? Is there large research going in the background? Ask me questions. Ask each other questions. ASK CAZ QUESTIONS.

Is this what Fortree deserves? An uninformed electorate? A lackadaisical people? I have the means to leave, to enjoy the ruination that Caz will bring, but I try to make you see reason.

Anything. Tell me I'm still sus. Tell me I am not crazy. Tell me something. It's ridiculous that I have to shove you all. Even BK. You can vote for me all you want, but give us something more?

[FallacyofUrist]

I'll give you a wall of text to chew on in a few minutes. I'm just finishing up something else I'm writing for the moment.

[FallacyofUrist]

What we know:

Out of the two candidates, one is the traitor.

Out of the three voters, one is the traitor-ally, and does not know who the traitor is.


Aside from myself, there are four people I can analyze.

The Candidates:

Caz:
Caz's style is in dichotomy with webadict's. He focuses less on the other players of the game and more on deconstructing webadict's own approach.

I don't need to look good man, I only have to prove that you're scum. And you're doing most of that fine by yourself.

I wouldn't call it necessarily a passive style at this point. Rather, it's reactive. Attempting to reveal webadict as the traitor by revealing the flaws and issues with webadict's approach.

Is Caz less active and forcefully digging than webadict? Absolutely. But we can't take that as a guarantee of anything. Powerwolves exist, as do passive town. Heavy activity and engagement is definitely a towntell, but Caz points out here, in the quote I selected, that he doesn't care about looking good, just tearing apart webadict's arguments.

webadict:
Webadict is genuinely impressive. I'll be honest: the read I have that he's 'trying too hard to be town' is pretty much a gut read. Just instinct. So let me attempt to quantify that - or disprove it.

The coins gambit.

As the nominee for my party, I am given security briefings. One such briefing informed me that Caz, the nominee of [NO PARTY NAME GIVEN], is serving our sworn enemy Ellif. Ellif grants their nobility symbolic coins, one of which was found with Caz's dirty fingerprints on it. notquitethere must also have been given one of these coins. notquitethere often breadcrumbs in their opening post as scum, and combining with their wanton attitude this game, it is very likely that notquitethere is therefore the undercover party for Caz, to surrender us to Ellif. Note that notquitethere specifically states that they used a die instead of a real coin to obfuscate their allegiance.

It is very likely that notquitethere will be steadily pushing for Caz, and I believe this will be readily apparent as the game goes on. Of course, I do believe that Caz may attempt to use this to distance themselves from notquitethere.

I'll be honest, this reads like a conspiracy theory.

webadict: Did you lie about the coin information you claim to have gotten from your flavor?

I'm sad to say that webadict's logic regarding the coins makes no sense. It's perfectly reasonable for a town!Caz to assume webadict is lying just because he knows webadict is scum and therefore a liar. I'm not sure a town webadict would push something so... ridiculous, so hard, unless it was literally a lie and a gambit designed to expose Caz via their reaction. Hence my question above.

But I can't just focus on this thing only. It's just a contributing factor.

Next, webadict moves on to utilizing meta evidence.

Which part of this play looks like how I usually play scum?

This... feels like useless WIFOM. As NQT points out.

I believe in your creative power to approach different games differently.

When it comes down to it, you can't use meta tells as primary evidence. You have to rely on how the game is played, because people change. People can change a lot. And people can even intentionally change, if they're good.

Then the dumbtell stuff. Honestly, I can believe that wuba just messed up there. It couldn't just be ignored, but a mess-up is believable.

In web's most recent post, he seems desperate.

Honestly, this would be understandable from town, too. Like town!nqt's performance in BYOR15, where he tried to panic-sway the execution at the end of day 1. I can believe that this is town!web panicking because the air is dead and scum can just lurk to victory.

I'm still leaning towards Caz as town, though. Give me evidence? Okay. You're scum because you're trying to hard to look down that you're throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Caz.

The Other Voters:

notquitethere:

Rest assured, I'll be reading back and reconsidering the arguments before the day's end.

Honestly? Bluarianknight makes a good point. Notquitethere seems low-effort, and not justifiably. Whether I think NQT is the traitor ally or Blu is the traitor ally depends on how well NQT follows up on this post.

That said, bad town is still town.

Bluarianknight:
Smol problem of holiday inactivity. Understandable, really. And not really feasible to get a replacement for a micro-game in progress. Unfortunately this makes reading them pretty hard, but we do get one absolute gem of a post to work with recently.

Bluarianknight still supports webadict.

Which is interesting. Notquitethere seems like the traitor-ally (at the moment) while Bluarian seems like a town voter, yet they're all switched around, notquitethere voting Caz, who I think is town, and Bluarian voting webadict, who I think (presently) is mafia.

Because based on the evidence, Web just fucking shot himself in the foot - but hasn't proven any scumtells or lean-ins. He doesn't want to manipulate the crowd, and provides arguments based on his opinions.

See though, acting towny enough is a form of scumtelling. Is the towniness being generated incidentally, or intentionally? That's the big question. My main argument against web is that it feels like he's trying too hard to look town.

But honestly I'm still open to changing my vote to elect Caz. Not very open, like 25% or so, but it's there. If you want to convince me? Tell me how web's play makes sense as a town player.

[webadict]

webadict: Did you lie about the coin information you claim to have gotten from your flavor?

Yes. I have already claimed so.

I did so to make the first move. The issue here is that RVS doesn't exist. I have complete knowledge of what the right play is. Therefore, the point is that I can push for something to talk about. The goal, initially, was to get Caz to claim that there were no coins.

Please note that what follows uses logic that has been proven incorrect. For a defense of my thought process, please note that I specifically do not judge people for not knowing things. If I did, I would vote Luckyowl more.

NQT's first post initially sounded like they knew Caz was the Traitor because they were the Ally (running off the false knowledge that the Ally knew the Traitor.) I made up the Coin thing at the time mostly as a way to test out this theory. It had several outcomes, and I figured I'd get shit for it no matter what, but if you never make a move in this game, and you never take a chance, then why even play (You'll have to take my word that I like gambiting, but you can look at Paranormal 26 for another gambit. Or maybe you can look at Vengeful 12.5. There are literally dozens on this site, and I do them all the time because the game isn't fun if there's no danger.)

Worst case scenario is pretty much this, but... Eh? That's the result of gambiting. Sometimes the gambit doesn't go completely right.

I do believe that Caz made a complete misstep in claiming there were no coins, something that a Town player would have no knowledge of. I will stay committed to that at the end of the game when I flip Town. If you think I am wrong, you will be eating my words for years.

If you think I sound desperate, it's because I'm trying as hard as I can to show you I'm Town because it feels entirely like you see only what you want to see. There was no effort to read Caz in spite of literal memes being built about my unreadability. It's just soooo... I want to say lazy, but it's more like acceptance. That you have resigned yourself to your decision.

And I know it's wrong.

I am trying to help you. I am trying to say to poke Caz. You see me do my gambit and think it is wrong because you do not live in my brain.

The thing is, no matter if I win or lose here, you will always remember this game forever. You will see me gambit here and remember I was Town. Because I know NQT knows I do this all the time. I actively refused to cooperate with a Town-sided plan in CYOM4 because it wasn't fun, and you think I wouldn't gambit when my ultimate goal is to prove myself Town???

I have also posted Caz's metatells. Would you like me to go back over those too, to show you? I went on mine SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE YOU SAID I WOULDN'T DO THIS AS TOWN.

Want me to repost some more?

[webadict]

I really think that Caz is afraid to call BK the ally specifically because they want them to move to them. They likely believe, legitimately, that NQT is the Ally, but they aren't scared right now because they know NQT will stay there.

If I'm the Traitor, then Caz should be terrified of losing if they do not believe that BK is the Ally, unless they someone think that NQT, the Ally, believe they are the Traitor. But, what kind of mindset for a Town player is that. If you want to call that reasoning WIFOM, fine. But, it IS Occam's Razor to believe that if a player isn't afraid of losing and they have the player they believe is the Ally voting for them... It's because they think the Ally thinks their the Traitor...

[webadict]

Anyway, I'm off to bed. It's literally up to FoU to see if Town wins or loses. I've seen NQT on and off again, but it's just very unlikely that NQT is not the Ally. So, FoU, I'm willing to accept that you're Town.

Maybe that's why you think the scheme was scummy. I assume that scum FoU would probably do something like that. That's why it logically makes sense for you to assume that scum web might. Logically consistent with Town.

I unfortunately can't prove BK is the towniest player anymore because FoU's reasoning makes the most sense now. BK's is consistent with what little I know of their meta, but I'm not afraid of them being the Ally. NQT is like 90% certain to be the Ally, and they've done nothing other than defend Caz and attack me.

That's just... That's all the energy I have left. I need sleep. Seriously, FoU, if all of that isn't enough evidence to convince you, then there's literally nothing I can do, short of time travel.

You can say that desperation is a scumtell, but that only applies when the Town has additional eliminations. This game has literally one. You have to eliminate right.

Read Caves of Dashar. Read Caz there. It's short. It's easy for me to see it. That Caz is Town. This Caz is scum.