Damn you lot post a lot while I'm sleeping...
NQT, Icytea, Jim, and Toaster. (early day) I can't trust any of you guys. To the point I wouldn't be suprised if we had a 1-man mafia(as werewolf converter, what that role is called) and 1-man cult leader to go along with the devil, and no natural nightkills at the start.(or they both just used a convert.) We apparently have a survivor and a vampire now. Chaso.
Luckyowl, Caz, and Persus. I'd say these three make sense to me as lynches.
What. There's no way in hell this is a multiball, especially not a multiball with double cult.
Ok if everyone is just going to lynch me because juicebox was lurking then you might as well replace me out. Waste of time.
Please don't. You're under suspicion, not up on the chopping block, you've got time and wiggle room to change people's minds on you.
Three people giving up and two others replacing out is not fun.
Toonyman: I'm not going to bother finding your post in question to quote but I'm of the personal opinion that reading into why people replaced out is both bad form and incredibly unreliable.
NQT: As funny as that would be, I wouldn't do that. Simple answer: lying about my role makes my later claim less believable, no matter how townie I am in the intervening period.
I like the analysis you're doing but I think there's a major flaw in it: that is, you don't adjust based on the meta of the players you're looking at. While you wouldn't know this because this is a more recent thing I mostly do on MU, me high-posting is pretty NAI, I always have a high post count (in my last game as town I was at almost 500 posts on D1). Jim, conversely, strikes me as a player with a low postcount but high density of information in his posts, and thus "sort by postcount, become mafia expert" isn't really as applicable there. It also feels like your reads are coming entirely from your mechanical analysis and not at all from the way people are actually playing, which is