Alright, I'm gonna do this bit by bit because I've been killing myself slowly with this song.
So, let's start off with 4maskwolf.
4maskwolf
4maskwolf is more Town than almost anyone in this game. I'm not a fan of the Luckyowl push, but it's an extremely mechanical play, and completely within character for... I was gonna say Town!4mask, but... uh, well. Regardless, 4maskwolf has a good reason to continue the attack on Luckyowl because a dual conversion is an effective plan. Super active, and appears to be hashing out ideas with NQT. I think my last read on NQT might have been affecting my brain too much, so I'm gonna give NQT a much better rundown than whatever I was thinking last night/this morning.
4maskwolf has claimed not to be the Devil, so we're now at a grand total of 3 third parties. I have no idea what a Devil does or why they're good/bad, but whatever. Not my problem.
4maskwolf believes that the scum team is not a Vampire Cult. I am in agreement with this statement, as is NQT. I believe that a Vampire Cult would be an impossible summit to climb in this game. 2 Survivors actually indicates a smaller scumteam as well, so there is massive evidence to back these claims up.
4maskwolf wants juicebox/Caz's dream. Mechanical standpoint.
Overall judgment: Certified Town Survivor.
Still 0% Town, but an honorary 90% Town. Would prefer less mechanics behind their decision because it feels like they'll attempt to turn on the Town with it when they decide the ship has sunk, but so far they're not actively throwing the lifeboats over yet, so I'd still be apt to agree with their decisions. Very active, and lots of discussion.
BluarianKnight
Bluarian is proven to have been Town before the flop, so I'm inclined to believe their conversion to Lone Vampire (which relies on Luckyowl). Bluarian Knight has posted twice, though, so they're not exactly going to help find scum. Honestly, this is like, the opposite of what I want to see in a player.
Overall, I want to see more from Blue. I think that voting for Blue is an easy vote, though, and not in a good way.
Overall judgment:
0% Town, with an honorary 60% Scum. Gonna be honest, if we ever want to off a third party, I say it should be Bluarian first. Lone Vampires can roleblock if I'm not mistaken, so it's possible we could use them to potentially Nightgame if needed, but I'd much rather see them Daygame.
Caz
Woah there, juicebox gets a replacement. juicebox was definitely my top scumpick from Yesterday, so very interested to see how Caz pulls this out of the gutter.
Caz's posts today aren't impressive just yet.
Caz claims random dreams... That's, uh, not exactly helpful. We already know that two players don't take actions.
Other than that, I''m waiting on some major Caz action.
Overall judgment:
80% Scum. Honestly, this is a very preliminary assessment, so I'm gonna wait until we get some Caz reads to lock that in.
IcyTea31
IcyTea31's general thoughts are probably the most useful of the post because they're typically directed nowhere in particular. I believe that IcyTea31 doesn't like that Jim, Toony, Vector, and I had essentially discounted each other as being scum. For the my part, my justification is simple: ToonyMan and Jim Groovester played actively and their reads made logical sense for a Day 1. That, in itself, should be enough to say that they're definitely not elimination-worthy. The goal is that activity is king, and the more activity you have, the easier it is to read a player's moves. Vector, on the other hand, is very much a stealth bomber. Reading Vector is something of an art form, and thus sometimes it is best not done at all. If I leave Vector in the Town, Vector will probably murder me and then claim my words. Or maybe they won't, Vector likes to toy with me, and it's just a real shame.
But, my complain against Toaster is that I think that their attack on Jim Groovester was incredibly silly, and cost them significant Town equity. The problem is that when you've committed to an attack against Jim Groovester when they're being Town... Well, it costs you points. This doesn't really need to exist here because it'll be going in the Toaster read.
It feels like IcyTea is proceeding extremely cautiously today, and for that I'd like to put that higher up in the scumread than Yesterday. They've left a vote on Luckyowl, but I don't exactly see them using it wisely. Honestly, I'd be harsher, but they're right in that I definitely wasn't participating at full force Today. However, now they won't have that excuse.
Overall judgment:
55% Scum. I'd like to see their take on Luckyowl, and if they're really worth voting. I believe they could be a good candidate to potentially convert from the pool of non-core players because they don't stand out particularly well. Not impressed but also not depressed by their play. Must see more.
Jim Groovester
Jim Groovester hasn't had much content on Day 2, so they're truly relying hard on their Day 1 read. Day 1, they were my lock Town player, but Day 2 they've been defending their... I'd say lurking, but I don't think they were lurking, but it feels like they think they were lurking, which is probaboyl slightly scummier.
Their stance on how Today feels definitely matches what I was feeling. Regardless, they're getting knocked out of first place by... 4maskwolf? They're definitely feeling a bit differently from Yesterday, but is that because of Day 1.5? Still probably not a good vote target just yet because they'll probably draw an inspect.
There just isn't a lot to work with Jim Groovester Today.
Overall judgment:
75% Town. Moving them down a bit because can't be sure they weren't converted. If they don't post something good Today, I'll take them out of Towncore and mark them off as the convert.
Luckyowl
Look, I'm gonna be super biased here because I am almost positive that Luckyowl is both Town AND was not converted last Night. However, I'm not sure what order a Devil happens in. Based on the research I just did, I think a Devil's bargain happen first, so I think I have to undo some assumptions I made. Anyway, let's analyze.
Luckyowl's first post is an OMGUS against the Towniest(?) player in the game, and it's not a good look for them. Luckyowl claims that a Devil visited them, a claim that I think should be supported by meta analysis of the Day starting time and by the fact. Finding the Devil now isn't a main concern here, but if I had to guess, this points significantly towards ToonyMan. Which would clear them from being scum. I think. However, ToonyMan denies this, so what the heck do I know?
There's never a lot to analyze for Luckyowl. I thought they were Town Yesterday, and they're proven that they rezzed Today. The question is whether anyone would convert Luckyowl... And the answer is a pretty resounding no, not likely, unless you're going for super ultimate WIFOM players.
My biggest concern about Luckyowl is that they're likely going to coast until endgame and we're gonna be stuck in a Luckylo. But, I'm still willing to Townlean them. Or maybe we won't because Luckyowl is trying to pull the ol' vote yourself thing that Blue tried! You know what, I have a sneaking suspicion that it might end in their death.
Overall judgment: Still
65% Town. I wish Luckyowl would attempt bigger reads and not hang back so much because they're hampering Town and never realize it.
notquitethere
Complete and utter scum. Nah, I'm just checking to see if you're reading this, but probably only NQT is. I believe my biases are showing in that I will always think their elimination is helpful. Looks like I left them at null Yesterday, and I remember why now. They started out scummy and pulled out some interesting reading material later on. Well, if they're null, fine, I'll start them, off at square one.
I agreed with their first post, but I've already said that. I'm still under the impression that one of ToonyMan or Jim Groovester are 85% the converted player with a 5% on Vector and a 5% on NQT, and maybe an extra 5% on someone else. But, they're pulling the same mechanical angle that 4maskwolf is pulling, and my guess is that they're aiming for a fullclaim from everyone. Their voting angle is very much PoE right now, as their vote on Toaster shows it.
[Post #614]But, they've got the same problem that 4maskwolf has, in that all of their posts are heavily mechanical geared, but they don't have the fallback of being third party like 4mask does.
Oh, and look, once they're satisfied with Toaster, they move to IcyTea31
[Post#663], who was the only other player who hadn't claimed yet in their pool.
Alright, if I have to think of this from Town!NQT's perspective, this has a chance of being an investigative motive, but I feel like it's missing too many people. They've jumped onto Luckyowl next, and that could be a way to just collect information, but... I feel like that's just too easy of a vote, especially since they've jumped off of juicebox.
If their goal is to find the Cult Leader, they've suddenly changed their tune. It feels absolutely like their mechanically nailing down the Town PRs and threat assessing. They've even shifted away from their juicebox FoS.
Oh, and they voted Bluarian at the end for activity.
Overall judgment: 70% Scum. Absolutely lowering NQT for their takes Today. While they're super active, they're super mechanical-focused. I can't think of Town!NQT acting like how they're acting Today. Perhaps they were converted? I think there's ample evidence to support that. Perhaps they're the converter? There's less evidence of that. Hm. Regardless, I still by what tired me said on a hunch.
Oh my god, I'm gonna take a bit of a break. Sorry guys for a huge wall.
Author
Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over! (Read 87866 times)