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Author Topic: Supernatural 10 - Game Over!  (Read 86830 times)

Caz

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #795 on: March 02, 2021, 05:40:53 pm »

facepalms Town as in the collective group of players, not the alignment.

-.- so touchy.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #796 on: March 02, 2021, 05:42:54 pm »

To the equivalent of no action. Given flavor-solving is apparently banned for whatever reason, I just wrote a diary entry on my thoughts. (I was wondering if a dreamwalker would see it.)

Caz's role can't be confirmed, which is the issue with multiple Dreamwalkers. Of note is that Juice was part of the lynch on Blue, is there any role that allows you to steal the abilities of others?
Flavor solving is permitted for some things, like determining which specific scum team you're up against by the dead body flavor. Confirming your actions as true based on the personal night action flavor you received, a la Para 26 and the dog, really shouldn't be legal, and I'm pretty sure that was the majority opinion postgame there.

I doubt the answer will be yes though. Also, its entirely possible that he didn't get your dreams Tric and someone else is a Witch or a Knight, or some other role that doesn't have/didn't take night actions.
I don't take actions!

Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #797 on: March 02, 2021, 05:46:00 pm »

Meph: If a player asked for night flavor, would a dreamwalker be able to see that flavor?

Dreamwalker gets the Night Result PM of another player, if that player received one. Otherwise they just get random dream stuff.

Mechanically, no, I would not do a 'flavor result PM' like that. Dreamwalker is supposed to be both useful as a role and as a fakeclaim. Letting people get dreamwalker confirmation PMs like that would break things.
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Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #798 on: March 02, 2021, 06:23:02 pm »

Cripes, I meant to post. Anyway, NotQuiteThere.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #799 on: March 02, 2021, 06:44:16 pm »

I figured as much, thanks Meph!
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #800 on: March 02, 2021, 07:08:56 pm »

Alright, I'm gonna do this bit by bit because I've been killing myself slowly with this song.

So, let's start off with 4maskwolf.

4maskwolf

4maskwolf is more Town than almost anyone in this game. I'm not a fan of the Luckyowl push, but it's an extremely mechanical play, and completely within character for... I was gonna say Town!4mask, but... uh, well. Regardless, 4maskwolf has a good reason to continue the attack on Luckyowl because a dual conversion is an effective plan. Super active, and appears to be hashing out ideas with NQT. I think my last read on NQT might have been affecting my brain too much, so I'm gonna give NQT a much better rundown than whatever I was thinking last night/this morning.

4maskwolf has claimed not to be the Devil, so we're now at a grand total of 3 third parties. I have no idea what a Devil does or why they're good/bad, but whatever. Not my problem.

4maskwolf believes that the scum team is not a Vampire Cult. I am in agreement with this statement, as is NQT. I believe that a Vampire Cult would be an impossible summit to climb in this game. 2 Survivors actually indicates a smaller scumteam as well, so there is massive evidence to back these claims up.

4maskwolf wants juicebox/Caz's dream. Mechanical standpoint.

Overall judgment: Certified Town Survivor. Still 0% Town, but an honorary 90% Town. Would prefer less mechanics behind their decision because it feels like they'll attempt to turn on the Town with it when they decide the ship has sunk, but so far they're not actively throwing the lifeboats over yet, so I'd still be apt to agree with their decisions. Very active, and lots of discussion.


BluarianKnight

Bluarian is proven to have been Town before the flop, so I'm inclined to believe their conversion to Lone Vampire (which relies on Luckyowl). Bluarian Knight has posted twice, though, so they're not exactly going to help find scum. Honestly, this is like, the opposite of what I want to see in a player.

Overall, I want to see more from Blue. I think that voting for Blue is an easy vote, though, and not in a good way.

Overall judgment: 0% Town, with an honorary 60% Scum. Gonna be honest, if we ever want to off a third party, I say it should be Bluarian first. Lone Vampires can roleblock if I'm not mistaken, so it's possible we could use them to potentially Nightgame if needed, but I'd much rather see them Daygame.


Caz

Woah there, juicebox gets a replacement. juicebox was definitely my top scumpick from Yesterday, so very interested to see how Caz pulls this out of the gutter.

Caz's posts today aren't impressive just yet.

Caz claims random dreams... That's, uh, not exactly helpful. We already know that two players don't take actions.

Other than that, I''m waiting on some major Caz action.

Overall judgment: 80% Scum. Honestly, this is a very preliminary assessment, so I'm gonna wait until we get some Caz reads to lock that in.


IcyTea31

IcyTea31's general thoughts are probably the most useful of the post because they're typically directed nowhere in particular. I believe that IcyTea31 doesn't like that Jim, Toony, Vector, and I had essentially discounted each other as being scum. For the my part, my justification is simple: ToonyMan and Jim Groovester played actively and their reads made logical sense for a Day 1. That, in itself, should be enough to say that they're definitely not elimination-worthy. The goal is that activity is king, and the more activity you have, the easier it is to read a player's moves. Vector, on the other hand, is very much a stealth bomber. Reading Vector is something of an art form, and thus sometimes it is best not done at all. If I leave Vector in the Town, Vector will probably murder me and then claim my words. Or maybe they won't, Vector likes to toy with me, and it's just a real shame.

But, my complain against Toaster is that I think that their attack on Jim Groovester was incredibly silly, and cost them significant Town equity. The problem is that when you've committed to an attack against Jim Groovester when they're being Town... Well, it costs you points. This doesn't really need to exist here because it'll be going in the Toaster read.

It feels like IcyTea is proceeding extremely cautiously today, and for that I'd like to put that higher up in the scumread than Yesterday. They've left a vote on Luckyowl, but I don't exactly see them using it wisely. Honestly, I'd be harsher, but they're right in that I definitely wasn't participating at full force Today. However, now they won't have that excuse.

Overall judgment: 55% Scum. I'd like to see their take on Luckyowl, and if they're really worth voting. I believe they could be a good candidate to potentially convert from the pool of non-core players because they don't stand out particularly well. Not impressed but also not depressed by their play. Must see more.


Jim Groovester

Jim Groovester hasn't had much content on Day 2, so they're truly relying hard on their Day 1 read. Day 1, they were my lock Town player, but Day 2 they've been defending their... I'd say lurking, but I don't think they were lurking, but it feels like they think they were lurking, which is probaboyl slightly scummier.

Their stance on how Today feels definitely matches what I was feeling. Regardless, they're getting knocked out of first place by... 4maskwolf? They're definitely feeling a bit differently from Yesterday, but is that because of Day 1.5? Still probably not a good vote target just yet because they'll probably draw an inspect.

There just isn't a lot to work with Jim Groovester Today.

Overall judgment: 75% Town. Moving them down a bit because can't be sure they weren't converted. If they don't post something good Today, I'll take them out of Towncore and mark them off as the convert.


Luckyowl

Look, I'm gonna be super biased here because I am almost positive that Luckyowl is both Town AND was not converted last Night. However, I'm not sure what order a Devil happens in. Based on the research I just did, I think a Devil's bargain happen first, so I think I have to undo some assumptions I made. Anyway, let's analyze.

Luckyowl's first post is an OMGUS against the Towniest(?) player in the game, and it's not a good look for them. Luckyowl claims that a Devil visited them, a claim that I think should be supported by meta analysis of the Day starting time and by the fact. Finding the Devil now isn't a main concern here, but if I had to guess, this points significantly towards ToonyMan. Which would clear them from being scum. I think. However, ToonyMan denies this, so what the heck do I know?

There's never a lot to analyze for Luckyowl. I thought they were Town Yesterday, and they're proven that they rezzed Today. The question is whether anyone would convert Luckyowl... And the answer is a pretty resounding no, not likely, unless you're going for super ultimate WIFOM players.

My biggest concern about Luckyowl is that they're likely going to coast until endgame and we're gonna be stuck in a Luckylo. But, I'm still willing to Townlean them. Or maybe we won't because Luckyowl is trying to pull the ol' vote yourself thing that Blue tried! You know what, I have a sneaking suspicion that it might end in their death.

Overall judgment: Still 65% Town. I wish Luckyowl would attempt bigger reads and not hang back so much because they're hampering Town and never realize it.


notquitethere

Complete and utter scum. Nah, I'm just checking to see if you're reading this, but probably only NQT is. I believe my biases are showing in that I will always think their elimination is helpful. Looks like I left them at null Yesterday, and I remember why now. They started out scummy and pulled out some interesting reading material later on. Well, if they're null, fine, I'll start them, off at square one.

I agreed with their first post, but I've already said that. I'm still under the impression that one of ToonyMan or Jim Groovester are 85% the converted player with a 5% on Vector and a 5% on NQT, and maybe an extra 5% on someone else. But, they're pulling the same mechanical angle that 4maskwolf is pulling, and my guess is that they're aiming for a fullclaim from everyone. Their voting angle is very much PoE right now, as their vote on Toaster shows it.[Post #614]

But, they've got the same problem that 4maskwolf has, in that all of their posts are heavily mechanical geared, but they don't have the fallback of being third party like 4mask does.

Oh, and look, once they're satisfied with Toaster, they move to IcyTea31[Post#663], who was the only other player who hadn't claimed yet in their pool.

Alright, if I have to think of this from Town!NQT's perspective, this has a chance of being an investigative motive, but I feel like it's missing too many people. They've jumped onto Luckyowl next, and that could be a way to just collect information, but... I feel like that's just too easy of a vote, especially since they've jumped off of juicebox.

If their goal is to find the Cult Leader, they've suddenly changed their tune. It feels absolutely like their mechanically nailing down the Town PRs and threat assessing. They've even shifted away from their juicebox FoS.

Oh, and they voted Bluarian at the end for activity.

Overall judgment: 70% Scum. Absolutely lowering NQT for their takes Today. While they're super active, they're super mechanical-focused. I can't think of Town!NQT acting like how they're acting Today. Perhaps they were converted? I think there's ample evidence to support that. Perhaps they're the converter? There's less evidence of that. Hm. Regardless, I still by what tired me said on a hunch.




Oh my god, I'm gonna take a bit of a break. Sorry guys for a huge wall.
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Caz

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #801 on: March 02, 2021, 07:09:01 pm »

Toony

Okay, I get it. My current guess is that Luckyowl is overly competent in decision making. I'll retract my question here.

Quote
Why wouldn't the scumteam accept the same deal?
I think they would, my guess is that Lucky is lying about declining.

So Lucky is being competent in refusing a devil's deal but they're also lying about making the competent choice? Ie they made an incompetent choice? :L


Well this is fun. Trying to write a read list and putting basically everyone down as scummy. Skimmed some previous games, standard confusion. (Also in skimming the info from previous Supernatural games I discovered that I played one in 2013. Well ain't that fucking disconcerting. I didn't even IN in this game originally because 'I didn't know the setup.' ....) Also I can't find a lot of info about devils so far. A third party that wins by getting players to agree to deals, right?

Here's my thought process. Toony made an argument that Meph wouldn't use true cults, and the "most likely" is that there was no kill because someone used a one-shot conversion. NQTs reasoning on why it isn't a vampire cult seems sound. No one is gonna use a one-shot convert on LO (sorry :D) imo the converted is going to be one of the least lynchable players, ie Toonyman, webadict, Vector. (But really, it's Toaster.) I think Icytea is the Devil, mostly cause they don't seem that concerned about the game. Jim is quiet, but "life stuff", Tric is annoying. Web ISN'T annoying, which strikes me as uncharacteristic.

...Why is LuckyOwl voting for themselves? It looks like they're copying the 'vote self and get out of jail free through pity' that BK pulled off earlier. Why do this?


Toaster

My thinking is that a Vampire Lord is such a red alert all hands on deck situation that D2 needs to steer in the direction that such a thing happens. 

Why encourage town to panic? It's the easy way to turn off the smart part of your brain. Only scum would want this.




This isn't my final readslist btw, this is my "I just read the whole thread twice and now my eyes aren't the correct shape" readslist:

town
Jim Groovester - still stuck in the bastard paranormal glory days. but probably town. no one who habitually listens to the snk soundtrack could be mafia.
Persus13 - gut town. ;_: how wicked to be untrue
Luckyowl - with horror, i think they're still town.
TricMagic - annoying. werebear is basically a miller, AGAIN

neutral
notquitethere - needs more graphs. a town nqt would have flowcharts. a town nqt would care. probably Devil.
4maskwolf - 3rd party, acts if they post enough town stuff they will become a real boy. that's a pinnochio reference, btw.
webadict - neutral. like a tortilla chip.
BluarianKnight - seems to have lost the will to play after d1? either way, 3rd party


scum
Toaster - can toast ever be bread again?
ToonyMan - :@:@ toony too towny to be towny. i jest, but tbh, there's a lot more suspiciousness now that i read through it.
IcyTea31 - 3rd party devil or scum
Vector - obvscum*
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Caz

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #802 on: March 02, 2021, 07:12:04 pm »

(yes, I've been here the whole time <_< and I feel a suspicion the night will get longer yet)
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #803 on: March 02, 2021, 07:34:45 pm »

Web ISN'T annoying, which strikes me as uncharacteristic.
I resent that take.

Is there any reasons for why each person is in their respective groups? You're giving reads, but they're lacking backing.
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Vector

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #804 on: March 02, 2021, 07:56:59 pm »

@Webadict: If I had to throw down right now, I would say I'm like 73% sure that NQT is the converter. I'm happy to provide reasoning in a bit, but. Yeah. Very strong feelings that it's NQT.

I'm also feeling Icy as the devil.
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webadict

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #805 on: March 02, 2021, 08:05:41 pm »

@Webadict: If I had to throw down right now, I would say I'm like 73% sure that NQT is the converter. I'm happy to provide reasoning in a bit, but. Yeah. Very strong feelings that it's NQT.

I'm also feeling Icy as the devil.
I'm not gonna say you're wrong because NQT has built up a lot of scum equity Today. Scum? For sure. Converter? I'm less sure of that one. But, we don't necessarily have to for sure hit the converter Today. We can just hit scum and work with that. I consider hitting the converter as a bonus prize at this point.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #806 on: March 02, 2021, 08:18:23 pm »

Caz: Devil offers oneshot abilities to players at night, wins when three players take up the offer, and then leaves the game taking those three players with them (effectively killing them).
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Caz

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #807 on: March 02, 2021, 08:44:37 pm »

Nope, gonna have to continue this post tomorrow. :D
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BluarianKnight

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #808 on: March 02, 2021, 08:52:20 pm »

I apologize - family matter left me a mess. I'll catch up soon.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural 10 - Day 2 has a full house
« Reply #809 on: March 02, 2021, 09:01:17 pm »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
BluarianKnight: 1: notquitethere
Jim Groovester: 1: Persus13
Caz: 1: BluarianKnight
Luckyowl: 4: IcyTea31, Luckyowl, ToonyMan, TricMagic
notquitethere: 1: Vector
Persus13: 1: Jim Groovester
Toaster: 1: webadict
ToonyMan: 1: Caz




Day ends ~5pm Pacific Wednesday. You have ~23 hours left.
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