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[nenjin]

Found this:

https://covid19criticalcare.com/

It's website that claims to have 10 doctors as part of the "Alliance", that offers hoodoo advice on taking Ivermectin and other "we don't want the vaccine what else can we take" bad guidance.

[Rolan7]

One of my family members (with all the children) tested positive for Covid, so the reunion is off.  Good on them for getting tested, I hope they'll be alright.  Bit of a dodged bullet altogether.

[Starver]

From april to august this year, 15222 people were hospitalized with Covid in the Netherlands.
Of those, only 4.6% were fully vaccinated.
7.4% were incompletely vaccinated.
88% were not vaccinated.

Vaccination prevents 95% of hospitalizations from Covid, and even 97% of ICU admissions.

People, get that vaccin if you can.

Noting that you'd need to correlate admissions with the rate of full-/incomplete-/non-vaccination in the population as a whole to make that a decisive statistic in the face of anyone who tries to find wiggle-room. But I suspect you're in the right area.

Hmm, LMGTFY. Looks like 61.9% are fully vaccinated.

Plugging in populations given/implied to be involved, we can say (somewhat less than) 0.01% of the fully vaccinated in the general population are hospitalised, while (slightly more than) 0.22% of everyone else is hospitalised.

Or, putting it the other way, 65 per million of the vaccinated are affected, 2205(ish) of the unvaccinated. That's 33.7 times difference, or full vaccination gives you only 2.97% the chance of hospitalisation, compared to the not/partially vaccination group. Which might be interpretted as a 97(.03)% advantage, by one interpretation[1] (which probably isn't the one used behind the statement above).

(Obviously GIGO might apply, and I just took the simplest way of comparison at each stage. There's probably something Bayesian you could do to it with Poisson gamma beta-binomial doodads, but those things are far less easy to make someone else understand the logic of the formulae, especially as I haven't used them myself for the longest time.)


I remain convinced, of course. But it's nice to know.


[1] I always get rather annoyed with statements like "<foo> is three times less than <bar>". Is <foo> a third of <bar>? Or is <foo> a quarter (1 <foo> for every 4 <bar>)? Or is <foo> a negative value twice the magnitude of <bar>'s positive value (<foo>=<bar>*(1-3)=<bar>*(-2))? Or... well, you get the idea.  And percentages can be missused grossly. Take 10% from a value, then add 10% to what you now have, and you get 99% of the original value, not 100%.  The same also happens if you start by adding 10%, then remove 10% of the (new) value again. 

[LordBaal]

May your family get better Rolan!

My wife's arm is good already, thankfully.

[Sirus]

To no one's surprise except apparently my parents', my uncle (the husband of the aunt mentioned last week) also tested positive for Covid. The aunt's in the hospital, but apparently she's not critical since she's texting us.

Now we're trying to figure out if we might have been exposed, since we saw them in person earlier this month/late last month. Might have to get tested for the first time, we'll see.

ETA: Aunt's going on the ventilator. Hopefully it's just temporary.

[Bumber]

I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.

Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?

Not even close. Breakthroughs are still a small fraction of covid cases, never mind hospitalizations, and in most cases, the possible transmissible viral load in the vaccinated is smaller. Besides, getting it ASAP would mean full vaccine efficacy in two weeks, compared to the slight decrease in effectiveness the vaccinated from, say, early spring have, who have been vaccinated for months now.

Here's a study the CDC is citing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

And a preprint study showing viral loads are similar:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v3

[None]

What point are you trying to make, really?

Testing identified the Delta variant in 90% of specimens from 133 patients. Cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.

Which sounds like values from people with a significant infection while vaccinated are similar to people with a significant value without vaccination, which says nothing about the efficacy of vaccination, but the severity of infection? I'm not sufficiently equipped to make calls on medical jargon.

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

[Gentlefish]

Okay cool so the vaccination isn't effective 100% of the time? We knew that. It still greatly reduces the risk of infection and massively reduces the risk of hospitalization. Which is the point.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the otherwise-preventable deaths due to lack of ICU space greatly outpace actual COVID deaths.

[Starver]

I understood the point to be that the rate of onward-infectivity from a (badly infected) vaccinated person is not that much different from the onward-infectivity from a (badly infected) unvaccinated person. At least on my reading of the summaries.

That this involves self-selecting (insofar as their circumstances) badly infected people, from amongst all the people who avoided or silently survived or got through 'happily' their respective possible infections (where the vaccine helps in that regard), should of course be considered before coming to the more severe conclusion.

And I may have misread the intended messages, too. Once I detected signs that they weren't what I think I should have been argued about (the argument as initially stated, would be momentous if accurate) I lost interest in looking through the finer detail to see if there was anything that would refute the point or else convert me to the cause of the Righteous But Oppressed. I didn't intend on piling in. (Not sure if this post counts as doing so. Not intended as such, but I'm worrying myself now, and second-guessing my own intentions, even. Darnit.)

[ChairmanPoo]

I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.

Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?

Not even close. Breakthroughs are still a small fraction of covid cases, never mind hospitalizations, and in most cases, the possible transmissible viral load in the vaccinated is smaller. Besides, getting it ASAP would mean full vaccine efficacy in two weeks, compared to the slight decrease in effectiveness the vaccinated from, say, early spring have, who have been vaccinated for months now.

Here's a study the CDC is citing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

And a preprint study showing viral loads are similar:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v3

That doesnt address what he said. As it's less likely to get infected being vaccinated, it's also less likely to pass it on.

For that matter the risk of domestic transmission was shown to be lower with the vaccinated
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717


Furthermore: vaccinated people stay infectious for shorter periods of time.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals.

In fact, the paper you linked acknowledges this other study, and its results. It doesnt make any statement regarding same because in THEIR study participants were only tested once

Our study has at least three important limitations. First, we have only one specimen from most individuals, and therefore we cannot know the trajectory of viral loads at the time of testing. Indeed, a study of Delta infection dynamics suggests that viral loads decline more rapidly in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals, as one might expect [7].

The takehome message is not that vaccines dont work, or that the risk is the same from a vaccinated person as an unvaccinated one. The takehome message is that the risk is not 0 and thus more mitigation strategies, including boosters, masks, and social distancing, are needed.

[LordBaal]

I have my appointment for the vaccine tomorrow. Luckily it's near my place so walking there won't be an issue. Dunno if it will be the Russian or one of the Chinese, really hope is not the Cuban one, I will not get it if that's the case.

[JoshuaFH]

What's wrong with the Cuban one?

[Starver]

In efficacy, it's close but no cigar..?

 

[LordBaal]

Our own medical federation has stated they don't know what it is or what it does, they can't claim is even a vaccine. But what do I know, they could simply swamp labels and deceive us.

Cuba as a whole lacks the infrastructure to develop, less produce large ammounts, of well, anything, even more so something as advanced as a rushed vaccine to a new virus which larger and developed countries struggled with.

Even more suspicious the fact that the mafia that runs this country openly stated Venezuelans were the first test of the thing.


My wife got the first sputnik shot a week ago. Since yesterday she has been feeling bad, heavy head, body ache and now is praising the goodness of the soviet and claiming death to capitalism hahaha... that last part is a joke but she has been feeling bad and today drowsiness  and diarrhea joined the symptoms.

[LordBaal]

Sorry for the double post.

I just got my first shot of SinoPharm, it was pretty quick actually, and 迄今 I have not any adverse symptoms...

I'll keep you posted guys.