Given the lacklustre responses in most states, who have been far more concerned with economics than with human life, I am gonna throw a completely unscientific, "Gut feeling" estimate at between 1 and 1.5 million deaths in the US.
I hope I am wrong-- truly- But that's what my gut is telling me.
**Remember, the following is/was the status quo in the USA in "The good times."
1) Too many patients per doctor, to the point where doctors did not get much sleep, because of the antics of the AMA to artificially restrict supply of practitioners to keep wages high.
2) Unchecked pricing in medical industry on equipment and products, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
3) Unchecked pricing on medicine in general, allowing 4000% price increases overnight, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
4) Rampant inability for people to obtain basic healthcare IN GENERAL because of rampant income inequality
and then you throw ON TOP of that--
Insufficient beds,
insufficient staff,
insufficient PPE,
insufficient equipment for ICUs,
insufficient testing,
insufficient quarantine enforcement,
insufficient supplies of medicine.....
THEN you have
Insufficient affirmative and proactive action from state and federal governments to contain the outbreak
Insufficient comprehension from the public at large to STAY THE FUCK HOME, EVEN IF YOU FEEL FINE.
Insufficient food reserves and delivery to support large urban centers in the middle of the emergency
PEOPLE BUYING AND USING FUCKING GUNS during the emergency
Etc...
Seriously- this is just "Perfect storm" writ large.