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[Max™]

Dr. Popeper, Mr. Pope, Pope Beer.

How do you make a dead pope float?

As for infectiousness, it looks like this coronavirus can survive on surfaces for a week, and remains viable after being launched 6 or 7 feet in a cough, so it's the people who were sitting three seats away from you a week ago and everyone closer you gotta worry about.

Regarding confirmed cases in the US, we found a case on Jan 21st and the person testing was told to knock it off because it could violate patient privacy using flu testing samples for this, that's how bad shit is here.

We've had a month and a half of unchecked spread, denial, deliberate limiting of tests, and there is no exaggeration when I say we have literally no possible way of telling how many cases there are here waiting to be found. If tests found 300, I'd add two zeroes and hope I've overestimated. Just make sure you don't let trumpists pretend they aren't culpable for the moronavirus and every death which is going to result from it.

China went from denial to lockdown and panic construction of hospitals.

We're in denial pretending it's a lockdown because that stupid orange cuntsack says it is, and flat out can't approach the ability to lock things down or slap together hospitals on a moment's notice which China used, so we're completely fucked like a narcoleptic chick around a party thrown by Lauer, Cosby, Weinstein, Trump, and all their horses after they got horse viagra in their feed bags.

Ever chuckled at people sending thoughts and prayers?

We could use some thoughts and prayers at this point, because there's nothing else we can really do now.

[Reelya]

Going over the stats for Italy and the USA can give some clues

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Note that USA says they have a very low amount of people in "critical" condition, 10, but 41 dead. Whereas in Italy, the number of people in "critical" condition is larger than the number of deaths. My takeaway is that the USA has many more people in critical condition than suggested, but they're not getting tested until too late (some articles suggest this is the case), so that skews that there are more deaths than critical cases. Note that for the recovered vs died rate, USA apparently has a much higher death rate than Italy. This again suggests that there are critically ill people in the USA who just aren't getting tested until too late, then are being picked up in the stats.

[ZBridges]

A Canadian-made COVID-19 vaccine has started animal testing, with human testing likely soon to follow.  It will take up to a year to complete.

Source: https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/sk/coronavirus-vaccine-made-in-saskatchewan-is-now-in-the-testing-stages

[TamerVirus]

My local state government is easing the population into lockdown already, what with bans on gatherings, school closings, declaring emergency and already deploying the national guard.

There's a palpable sense of tension on the streets. Lots of people wearing masks now. Panic shopping has already begun in earnest.
The storm is here, and it's gonna get rough

[Quarque]

The situation in the USA is grave indeed. If you are unfortunate enough to live there, stay strong.

[mko]

Singapore can't be an example for any large country... they are a city state.

Bigger problem is that they are are rich, have authoritarian society and with respected relatively competent government. Methods (like tracing, limiting entry, screening etc) are likely to be less effective elsewhere.

But small size is not making all methods completely invalid.

Temperature screening, early quarantine seem like a good idea. Nothing city-state specific here.

"visitor limit of two per patient in hospitals to slow the spread of the virus. Some hospitals have discouraged children from visiting" seems perfectly applicable. Nothing city-state specific here.

Paid sick leave (adjusted for local situation) and extending it to self-employed etc makes perfect sense. ("A $100 allowance per day will be provided to those self-employed under quarantine orders".). Not having paid sick leave (hello USA) is insanity, extending it during pandemic to cover more people is obvious thing to do. And given that taxes collected and number of people on sick leave both scale with population it is nothing that would not make it applicable to larger countries.


"Hospital bills will be paid by MOH for all suspected and confirmed cases of the virus as the illness is caused by an emerging disease." (again both population and taxes scale with population.)

"government distributed four surgical masks to each household" - OK, this is viable only for small countries in initial stages of pandemic.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore

[Reelya]

I have to say, watching the counter creep up every time I refresh that current infections for US thing is morbidly fascinating. Infections are up > 30% since the day before and there's still 6.5 hours until it's midnight in the Western states. Tracking for a 35-40% daily increase in number of infections again.

I'm guessing it'll hit 8000-10000 by next weekend since the rates aren't actually slowing down. And then, that's uncharted territory. There's no other country with that many infections that isn't on some sort of severe lockdown. Will the US feds quibble about what to do for the next 3 weeks and you'll be approaching 50,000 detected cases? This emphasis on the stock market is a foolish waste of time.

EDIT: To put this in perspective, Iran was at the same number of detected cases around March 2, 9 days ago, and Italy was at the same number of detected cases on March 2. That suggests you got 9 days before the USA outbreak catches up to where those nations are now, 12-15K infections. Assuming you got the testing ramped up in time.

[Frumple]

Next weekend? How about just Ohio, right now?

[Reelya]

Sure, but I'm talking confirmed cases only. It's already assumed that in every country most of the cases aren't counted. You have to do confirmed cases vs confirmed cases for how the US is doing relatively, otherwise that's apples and oranges.

[Frumple]

I mean... doesn't that only work if we're trying to test to a relatively similar degree? Because we're still not doing that.

[ChairmanPoo]

In Madrid allegedly the hospital is blocking doctors with symptoms from being tested (or so did some registrars over there claim). They're restricted to treating covid patients instead. Reason's obvious... one reason for Italy's healthcare collapse was their doctors calling in sick (thats why they're trying to import 500 from abroad).  This way they don't "officially" list them as sick so they avoid the quarantine. One of them said she was being forced to work with a temp.

The regional goverment there are jerks. Again, I'd like a border on the river Ebro.

Oh and the Roma who got infected and tried to spread it around? Patient zero threatened with death all "payos" (non-roma) and some.of his buddies managed to break out of their quarantined block and robbed shops by threatening people with infection.
I have no words

[Reelya]

"Deaths times 100" might be a better measure. But that would be for the cumulative number of raw cases about 3 weeks ago. Assuming the 10% per day growth thing, then currently there would be 41*100*1.1^21 =~ 30000 total infections in the USA. Which feels plausible.

Ohio is just spitballing. If they had that many, there should be 20,000 people being hospitalized there for it.

[nenjin]

Gotta love the Fox News coverage.

"What, 150k people died from the flu last year. We're at 22 in the US so far. Big whoop!"

It's the exact kind of US-centric thinking we've come to expect from them.

What's also scary, as well, is the fact the number is different depending on where you look, and when.

[ChairmanPoo]

WHat is scary is the mismanagement. In Spain things might be under control if they hadn´t HELD FUCKING RALLIES last week, in full knowledge there was a pandemic. Bit of karma about that though: the main advocates of the rallies (Irene MOntero and Pablo Iglesias from Podemos on the left, and Ortega-Smith and Abascal on the alt-right side) are actually infected. I¨m kind of hoping that now that their idiocy has been exposed to the whole country both parties will collapse. We wont be so lucky though.

The way things are going I think we´re going to have to rely on China to bail Europe out with advice and equipment.. Guess we´ll be whitelisting Huaweii afterwards.  not that I had any problem with that mind you, but Trump will probably be grinding his teeth. But he´ll be too busy with the covid crisis in US I guess.

BTW specially bad that the German goverment refused to support an EU wide program to address the COVID crisis and instead pretty much went for an every man for himself approach. So much for solidarity.

It´s idiocy btw.  It has spread. This is exactly the kind of crisis that goes better if you pool resources.

[Reelya]

Let me point out that I'm off work today because of a respiratory virus going around my office. The same office with the "we're not at risk / FAKE NEWS" guys in it.

It'll be interesting to see how India goes. They have an unbelievably low rate of infections from this. And I mean unbelievably low. Either they've been spared by the Gods and we should convert to Hinduism or they've got cases happening and just are too disorganized to know about it.