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[Loud Whispers]

pope being a lich would be so lore-friendly

[Iduno]

Undead-nazi-pope would be peak 2020.

I don't think he's dead, he just stepped down.

[Grim Portent]

This pope sucks, bring back pope classic

I prefer Pope Zero, the same refreshing Pope taste with none of the Catholeries.

[Il Palazzo]

I'm team Popesi.

[Akura]

Management went around today to get updated on everyone's phone numbers and email addresses, in case they need to tell us we're going to shut down due to the virus or "other disaster". I wouldn't be particularly surprised if we temporarily closed simply due to lack of business; today the store was pretty empty.

[Imic]

Someone visiting the Village Clinic was gwtting tested for the Coronavirus, done in the car park because they aen’t letting anyone besides the doctors inside the building anymore. No info yet on any result.

[ChairmanPoo]

I'm supposed to head over to your island and I'm worried about potentiam travel issues.

[Frumple]

I mean, you're medical yeah? They'd probably be pretty cheerful to conscript welcome that. Unless you're worried about getting out afterwards, I guess.

[ChairmanPoo]

I´m not particularily worried about travel out of Ireland. I mean, when I´m working I only go home when I get together significant amoutns of holidays because I´m really lazy about plane trips.

What worries me is that I might have trouble getting in because of a potential travel ban, like Italy´s.
In theory I´m supposed to start in April. I have time... I have time even for a potential travel ban to come and go. Still... I have to think this through. I might fly in next week just in case, maybe try to start my contract early (mostly because of the potential boredom of two weeks alone in Ireland with social isolation in place... on the other hand I´ll have my PC. )
I really wanted to meet with my Irish friends


I think Ireland is reacting fairly early to the coronavirus crisis, which is good. However, the UK is being as slow as everyone else at the very least, so I dont know to what extent Irish measures alone will spare them.

[McTraveller]

So since there are probably 10-20x as many total cases as ones that have been confirmed (confirmed cases lag actual by quite a lot) - does that mean it's better or worse than people are saying?

I can't tell, because most of the media seems to think the unconfirmed cases will all be at the same rates as the confirmed ones in terms of ICU need, etc.  Everything I've seen only seems to focus on the effect of health care availability, and how slowing down the spread improves that.  But I haven't seen anything (other than the non-rigorous financial markets) evaluate the mid-term impact of shutting everything down to impose social distancing.

Note this is kind of an academic question - and not "in a perfect world" kind of stuff, or blaming economic or cultural systems, just a question of "how would you be able to mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impact".  Because is it really worth a global recession to stop a pandemic?  Is there a way to stop a pandemic without a recession?  What would it take?

For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds?  Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?

Again, this is a "what can we do next time" question, not a "damn we didn't have this already who can we blame" question.

[mko]

I noticed something interesting: in the Canary islands they only have 46 cases despite having a tremendous population density and a chaotic healthcare system.

Maybe there is something to the theory that warm weather inhibits viral spread?

How many people were tested? Detected cases are limited by (1) number of tests made (2) number of infections.

So since there are probably 10-20x as many total cases as ones that have been confirmed (confirmed cases lag actual by quite a lot) - does that mean it's better or worse than people are saying?

Worse as far as containment goes, better as far as death ratio goes, worse as far as future death count goes.

Undetected cases result in overestimate of death ratio in case of counting detected death, known recovered people and known cases. Especially as many will recover without ever being diagnosed.

Undetected cases will infect others.

Undetected cases may worsen and some of this people will die.

For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds?  Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?

Yes, but it is too late to properly stockpile for this specific case. And you cant easily stockpile qualified doctors.

mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impact

Stop it before pandemic stage. Or stop it on a country level - Singapore and Japan are potentially promising.

[ChairmanPoo]

Singapore can't be an example for any large country... they are a city state. KOREA is promising. They started social isolation early so they have blunted the peak

[TamerVirus]

What about North Korea?
I bet Kim Jong Un is hiding out in a mountain bunker right now

[McTraveller]

Local school districts are starting to close now.  My kids haven't had a full week of school since before Christmas.  Yay for a 4-week spring break...?

EDIT: My kids are both sub first-grade. They go bonkers without school.

[Reelya]

It's good news for those people who claim real school is over-rated now that you can learn everything off Youtube. They get to test that theory now.