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[FallacyofUrist]

Same goes to literally everyone who voted Maximum and didn't bother to follow up anything at all.

Well, for one thing, I'm pretty surprised that Spin was town. I guess I was wrong about him lying.

kingawsume, I recall you didn't give much reasoning or original content when voting Maximum Spin. It seemed to me that you were just jumping on the bandwagon.

Now to read back through the thread. Look over voting patterns and the like.

At least nobody died tonight.
~~~
On another note, I think somebody, likely scum, tried to steal my Santa Party ability. I lost an ability last night... but guess what, it wasn't Santa Party(my mass gift ability). It was a once per night delay ability. Means more gifts for everybody tomorrow night!
~~~
Starver, if it helps you plan anything, I targeted you with Santa Party last night.

[Starver]

Because if I assume 3-4 scum, it is either MYLO (4/6 // out of 10) or y'know. Crucial dates.

Given my read, yesterday, the chances are highest that there are 2 Mafia, about 25% more than the chance of 3 (or, separately but equally, 1) Mafia, and roughly double the chance of there being 4. (Nearly quadruple the chance of 5 of them, more than 8 times the chances of 6, though by then we're definitely into losing territory unless there's complications and/or third parties and/or factions).

[On another note, I think somebody, likely scum, tried to steal my Santa Party ability. I lost an ability last night... but guess what, it wasn't Santa Party(my mass gift ability). It was a once per night delay ability. Means more gifts for everybody tomorrow night!
~~~
Starver, if it helps you plan anything, I targeted you with Santa Party last night.

Just to report that my "Twice per night you can swap a copy of this ability with an ability belonging to everyone targeting you." swap action (received, as part of the full-role'switxh, D2)is probably what happened there. (Noting that this means that only you targeted me, or else you and a second person did with (AIUI) exactly the same ability such that I could remove it.

I received the Delay, and just the Delay.

I also still have a Day action, which I expect to use to do most good, but means taking a chance. Hence the strong claims in case it goes fubar.

[FallacyofUrist]

Just to report that my "Twice per night you can swap a copy of this ability with an ability belonging to everyone targeting you." swap action (received, as part of the full-role'switxh, D2)is probably what happened there.

Ah. Yeah, that makes sense, I did get that ability.

I received the Delay, and just the Delay.

This worries me, especially considering the only ability I gained tonight was the ability I gained from you. I think that somebody may have interfered with my mass gift ability. The alternative being that you and me both targeted me, which doesn't seem possible, unless both of us were brainwashed and made to target me.

Everyone: did you gain an ability tonight?

[NJW2000]

Neh. And my harmless, targetless ability was blocked anyway, I think.

[4maskwolf]

Some life things came up, which is why I haven't been here, but my question still stands.  What exactly was the rationale for lynching Max?

[kingawsume]

Some life things came up, which is why I haven't been here, but my question still stands.  What exactly was the rationale for lynching Max?

My reason was general lack of explaining his votes.

[kingawsume]

Hey-a, 4mask...

Ya mind explaining why I got an "appear as town" ability from you?

[FallacyofUrist]

Some life things came up, which is why I haven't been here, but my question still stands.  What exactly was the rationale for lynching Max?

My reason was general lack of explaining his votes.

Did you state that earlier?
~~~

Hey-a, 4mask...

Ya mind explaining why I got an "appear as town" ability from you?

I'm fairly sure that any player can get any ability. Having an ability that adjusts alignment detection results doesn't mean that that player is mafia.

If they were to use that ability, then that would certainly merit a vote, though.

[Tiruin]

Hey-a, 4mask...

Ya mind explaining why I got an "appear as town" ability from you?

Wait let me get this straight -_-

Some life things came up, which is why I haven't been here, but my question still stands.  What exactly was the rationale for lynching Max?

My reason was general lack of explaining his votes.

And yet when he spoke back to you, you didn't respond or didn't act directly. His 'lack of explaining his votes' was pretty much within every post he made on his part.
Yours was bandwagoning blatantly onto him >_>

But aside from that, he confirmed your thing D1, I swapped something from you D2, and D3 you hit 4mask.
So presumably that 'kill' thing is a gift or whatever. Because unless you got gifted, you're out of abilities. If it's a daykill, why haven't you used it on who you suspect is scum?

Everyone: did you gain an ability tonight?

No :v

Neh. And my harmless, targetless ability was blocked anyway, I think.

Usually people get told when they're blocked.
NQT: Do people get told when they're blocked?

kingawesume, you've voted for nolynch and bandwagoned on a player that turned out to be town. What reason do we have not to lynch you today?

Are you serious with this?

[MoonyTheHuman]

I do not think they are told when they are blocked. But thats just me. Word of god needed.

[kingawsume]

I don't think you're ever told if you are successful, blocking abilities or otherwise.

[notquitethere]

In general, players are not informed of whether they are successful in their action.

[NJW2000]

kingawesume, you've voted for nolynch and bandwagoned on a player that turned out to be town. What reason do we have not to lynch you today?

Are you serious with this?

Indeed. If he didn't or couldn't use his kill ability, and hasn't played well, why do we keep him alive? It was a question for him to answer. But I don't feel bad about having my vote on him either, if that's your point. Why d'you ask?

Because if I assume 3-4 scum, it is either MYLO (4/6 // out of 10) or y'know. Crucial dates.

Given my read, yesterday, the chances are highest that there are 2 Mafia, about 25% more than the chance of 3 (or, separately but equally, 1) Mafia, and roughly double the chance of there being 4. (Nearly quadruple the chance of 5 of them, more than 8 times the chances of 6, though by then we're definitely into losing territory unless there's complications and/or third parties and/or factions).

So if I've calculated that right, you're saying there's about a 1/3 chance at least that there are only two mafia? Would a game with eleven players ever have that few? What are you basing your reasoning on, when you say, "read"?

Some life things came up, which is why I haven't been here, but my question still stands.  What exactly was the rationale for lynching Max?

My reason was general lack of explaining his votes.

And yet when he spoke back to you, you didn't respond or didn't act directly. His 'lack of explaining his votes' was pretty much within every post he made on his part.
Yours was bandwagoning blatantly onto him >_>

But aside from that, he confirmed your thing D1, I swapped something from you D2, and D3 you hit 4mask.
So presumably that 'kill' thing is a gift or whatever. Because unless you got gifted, you're out of abilities. If it's a daykill, why haven't you used it on who you suspect is scum?

Can you explain what you mean when you say, "His 'lack of explaining his votes' was pretty much within every post he made on his part"? It is true that Max never explained his votes, and that this was a feature intrinsic to his posts, but I don't understand what this has to do with kingawesume not replying to Max.

Also, can you give an example of Max responding to kingawesume? Because I'm getting tired of looking through his his posts, and I can't find any instances.

Also, what does, "yours" refer to? A rationale? Or a lack of explaining votes?

This just seems like... well, nonsense to make King look bad. I'm also interested in the kill question, although why it would make sense not to have used it if it were a nightkill, or why he would have used a daykill at the start of the day is beyond me.*


*Unless you're asking why he didn't use it yesterday and are assuming it's a daykill that could have been used immediately. In which case, fair enough, though those are questionable assumptions.

[Starver]

Given my read, yesterday, the chances are highest that there are 2 Mafia, about 25% more than the chance of 3 (or, separately but equally, 1) Mafia, and roughly double the chance of there being 4. (Nearly quadruple the chance of 5 of them, more than 8 times the chances of 6, though by then we're definitely into losing territory unless there's complications and/or third parties and/or factions).

So if I've calculated that right, you're saying there's about a 1/3 chance at least that there are only two mafia? Would a game with eleven players ever have that few? What are you basing your reasoning on, when you say, "read"?

From the detail that on being given the opportunity yesterday (gametime) to know the alignment status of a random half (rounded down, and not linked to names) of the eleven living players, I received 4 Town and 1 Mafia.

Factoring in all the possible combinations (and acknowledging the possibility of an Action: Frame, except that it symetrically skews to both Miller and Godfather mis-tells), the most likely (but not overwhelmingly likely, I grant you) situation is that there is just one more Mafia within the unannounced six. It's as likely that there are no more as that there are two more, in the margin for statistical deviation from this 'high'-point, though it's a flat-top curve. The difference is roughly 4:5:4 for one:two:three Mafia. I don't have the original scribbles at hand, but four mafia is definitely less likely.

Anyway, the use of this Day skill, yesterday, prevented me from using the Swap day-skill I was given (I forget who might have claimed it, my notes are elsewhere). Used today, the person I thought I had swapped with effectively confirmed that they had used such a skill themselves (so no redirect, unless there was a secondary coincident swap), and unless there's a good reason why I received a Kill-type skill, I should formally start my bidding with kingawsume. (I don't think Kill-type skills define Mafioso, but all Mafioso were guaranteed Kill-type skills. Which tips it for me. At least until the inevitable explanation arrives.)

Obviously, I may have to prove myself further, but this is me putting my head above the parapet. Please discuss.

[NJW2000]

Alright. I'm not sure about the use of probability to predict mafia numbers, assuming there's 3-4 seems more reliable, but that's not a key concern anyway.


So you got a kill from kingawesume? This does not seem like a good reason at all to vote him, given that it says in the OP that the mafiakill cannot be swapped away, but I may have misunderstood.