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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4204744 times)

Random_Dragon

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45930 on: August 15, 2021, 01:25:26 pm »

I still suspect that their ability to hold onto the whole country is going to have problems, but we'll see. Definitely going to be a mess either way. :/
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martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45931 on: August 15, 2021, 01:28:55 pm »

Women and little girls are in for a bad time
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45932 on: August 15, 2021, 01:36:08 pm »

And men and boys, for a different reason.

(Enough stories coming out of villagers being accused of being (non-Taliban) fighters, army, police, etc, etc, by the local flavour of Talibani units, for them not to all be pure fictions as told by the surviving refugees.)
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MrRoboto75

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45933 on: August 15, 2021, 02:14:05 pm »

Doo doo dee doot
« Last Edit: August 15, 2021, 02:59:30 pm by MrRoboto75 »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45934 on: August 15, 2021, 02:21:13 pm »

Damned if you do, damned if you don't... that's the problem with war: it sucks.  When you have people who are willing and enabled to commit atrocities, how far do you go to stop them?

When you are constantly berated for trying to "interfere."

Rhetorical: why do people want the government to step in when it comes to race or gender rights, but not in something like this?
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Random_Dragon

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45935 on: August 15, 2021, 02:27:04 pm »

Rhetorical: why do people want the government to step in when it comes to race or gender rights, but not in something like this?

...isn't this mess basically because we've been trying to "step in" for about 20 years and had been doing a garbage job at it? Unless you mean have the government put more of its military focus on warmongering, both within and without, which seems like an uphill battle because there's an entire industrial complex dedicated to making money off this shit. :v
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45936 on: August 15, 2021, 02:34:49 pm »

I don't think it's that we or the Afghanis did a "garbage job." This is part and parcel of fighting a guerilla insurgency. Look at Vietnam. The people that you're fighting, when they lose, just turn around and blend back into the population, go back to their villages, wait and prepare for the next opportunity. Sympathizers, whether that's political or tribal based, provide intel, weapons, food, concealment....

Then you have the interference from outside Afghanistan's borders from Iran, Pakistan, again due to either a desire to destabilize the region by pumping money and weapons and supplies into the Taliban, or providing a border for them to flee across to safety so they can regroup and rearm. Can't pursue them across the border without creating an international incident. Again, like Vietnam, where the Vietcong would flee across the border into Laos to avoid American pursuit. Outside interests want to see the Taliban succeed for their own reasons.

About the only way you'd have dealt with the Taliban is a complete scorched earth policy where you burn down every village along the way and kill every person in it. Obviously that wasn't going to be our method.

The best we could have hoped for is the Afghani military becoming stable enough that they could deal with it for the rest of their lives, or until they found a solution to "de-Talibanization." Clearly, that didn't happen either, for all the above mentioned reasons.

What needed to be destroyed was the idea of the Taliban, but that's similarly hard to impossible to really do when it's a broader framework and ideology than just Afghanistan.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45937 on: August 15, 2021, 03:02:04 pm »

We legitimately did a garbage job. The folks we put/kept in power were fucking horrible, and the shit just kinda' rolled down hill from there. Part and parcel guerilla fighting doesn't see complete collapse like we've just seen in Afghanistan; this was a special breed of twenty year, two trillion dollar fuckup.
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Random_Dragon

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45938 on: August 15, 2021, 03:18:38 pm »



Lil bit of there were probably better ways to handle it, lil bit of we probably would've failed eventually no matter what because fighting against irregular warfare is hard.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45939 on: August 15, 2021, 04:02:40 pm »

We legitimately did a garbage job. The folks we put/kept in power were fucking horrible, and the shit just kinda' rolled down hill from there. Part and parcel guerilla fighting doesn't see complete collapse like we've just seen in Afghanistan; this was a special breed of twenty year, two trillion dollar fuckup.

Setting aside the insanity of us still being responsible for who is in power in Afghanistan.....

US generals tried to fight it like a war. This is why soldiers do not make good policing forces. Watch Restrepo. See what those guys were dealing with. It's either sit on a hill and let the Taliban snipe/mortar you, or go village to village and get ambushed possibly by the very people that invited you there, or carpet bombing air strikes on the mountains against cave strongholds that legitimately can't be reached by such weapons. The US military and its operational methods work best against a static enemy with large numbers of troops. It's not suited to dealing with hundreds of groups 4 to 5 people strong scattered across the country side, who attack targets of opportunity or isolated patrols that have been fatigued from months in active duty and let their guard down. And really, that's what any trained Afghani soldier was going to be doing...they were just going to be worse equipped and trained than an American soldier.

We should have never been there in the first place. But I hate the back seat condemnation of US forces like this is somehow unique to us. NO ONE HAS EVER SUCCEEDED IN AFGHANISTAN. Not us. Not the Russians. Not the British. Everyone has been chased out and ground down by attrition, trying to eradicate an enemy where they live and who create martyrs and sympathizers with every body that hits the ground. It was the same in Vietnam, trying to save the very people who want to kill you. Historically, you either kill 80% of a population or interbreed for 4 generations when you want to conqueror a people. No one outside Afghanistan actually wants to live there, they just want to own it and since we're first world nations for the most part, just murdering anyone who disagrees isn't an option either.

You know who it IS an option for though? The Taliban. The only way to truly win against them is to be just as ruthless as they are, and we only engage in that sort of behavior in fits and starts in isolated incidents where both troops and commanders have finally had enough and commit some war crimes. Which immediately turns many Americans against the war effort as it should.

Again. We should have never been there in the first place. We were never going to "win", and propping up a regime for decades didn't work either. And frankly, "democratically free Afghanistan" was what they used as a reason to get support from half the country for it. The other half was pure "let's kill some fuckin terrorists for 9/11." They got their vengeance, we killed Mullah Omar, we killed Bin Laden, the Taliban got a little weaker for a time and then the rest of the misery was left trying to convert another nation across the world populated by many people that hate our guts back into a democracy. The kind of thing that people with good hearts who want to see women be their own masters and other democratic ideals support. As noble as that is, it's the reason we've stayed in Afghanistan at such a cost. It's strategic value has been diminished, we've shed all the right blood for people wanting vengeance, we've enriched our military contractors and "the complex", we've done enough to say "we tried" to the rest of the world.....the desire to remake Afghanistan again into something else is the reason we've stayed, and to me, it's just not nor has it ever been our business trying to make space for other democracies to grow. Even if it's morally the right thing to do to me, it is impossible to justify the cost.

Iraq has teetered on this knife edge for years as well, and I think the only reason we haven't fully given up there too is because it simply has more economic and strategic potential than Afghanistan.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2021, 04:09:56 pm by nenjin »
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45940 on: August 15, 2021, 04:07:30 pm »

Damned if you do, damned if you don't... that's the problem with war: it sucks.  When you have people who are willing and enabled to commit atrocities, how far do you go to stop them?

When you are constantly berated for trying to "interfere."

Rhetorical: why do people want the government to step in when it comes to race or gender rights, but not in something like this?
That rhetorical question does illustrate a good point. We should care about the well being all people regardless arrangement of the borders. Government could aid the race and gender rights of our own state and other states.

Ideally humanity would come together to prevent atrocities from occurring. My guess is that we have not reached that ideal because of a variety of reasons: people wanting the human right abuses to occur, the lack of political will, and the lack of a global perspective.

People are wary of intervention into other states because so many times the purpose was for imperialism. What countries ought to be doing is only intervene within a humanitarian and cooperative purview. So I would think we have to make sure our governments have good intentions. I guess the other part of the equation is then good methods. Maybe the optimal way to help another country has not been formulated and implemented. Maybe countries are acting like medieval doctors bloodletting? IDK. I do know I should learn more about foreign policy since it is complicated.
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45941 on: August 15, 2021, 04:11:38 pm »

Incidentally, our PM has recalled Parliament (it's on holidayvacation at the moment) to talk about what to do about this on Thursday.

Well, that's Ok then. I'm sure that'll be useful...
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45942 on: August 15, 2021, 04:25:40 pm »

We should have never been there in the first place. But I hate the back seat condemnation of US forces like this is somehow unique to us. NO ONE HAS EVER SUCCEEDED IN AFGHANISTAN. Not us. Not the Russians. Not the British.
No one except the Persians, Greeks, Kushans, Arabs, Mongols, Tamerlane and the Mughals, you mean, to crib someone else's notes :P

Don't really disagree with much of what else you said, but there's been plenty over the course of history that held on to the region in question without getting eaten in the process. There's also very few that have had their control of the place collapse quite so spectacularly as we have this round, from what I understand.

We definitely shouldn't have been there, though, and we extra definitely shouldn't have been propping up the kid raping sacks of shit we did while we were there, just as one "well, maybe that was a mistake" among a pile of them.

There were some serious, serious problems with the groups we were supporting in that country, and it's turned around to bite... well, not us, really, but all the folks we fucked over when we invaded to begin with, and all the folks about to get ruined now that the shit we were holding up is collapsing like the rotten house of cards we helped make it :-\
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45943 on: August 15, 2021, 04:44:33 pm »

Quote
No one except the Persians, Greeks, Kushans, Arabs, Mongols, Tamerlane and the Mughals, you mean, to crib someone else's notes

I'd make a distinction between pre- and post-Geneva convention warfare. The former were conquerors, the latter, modern military armies. And even with the flexible morality of some participants in modern Afghanistan (us included), at the end of the day no one actually wanted to conqueror it. They wanted to control it, like holding on to a thrashing Rattlesnake until it turned into a Golden Lab Retriever.

As for our choices in who to back, I mean, I think it's just symptomatic of our overall intentions for being there in the first place. We would say yes to anyone that 1) wasn't a hardline Muslim 2) was willing to take orders for us about how to rebuild the country 3) was interested in being a close ally of the US economically and politically 4) said they took the stability of the country seriously. All we wanted was to be like was "Cool, it's on you then bro!", getting some business flowing and get troops out of the country. In that environment, it's easy to both make really nauseating compromises for the sake of perceived stability, and to just straight up get taken for a ride. It takes a lot of cycles of free elections to set societal expectations and winnow down leadership to the least of the bad actors, and even that is never truly a guarantee either. (See: Africa.) Afghanistan barely even got to that.

From that article:

Quote
Most Afghans are appalled by this kind of behavior, and it's been a very effective recruiting tool for the Taliban because generally this is not behavior that the Taliban has ever tolerated.

Is it any wonder that the Taliban never stops being a voice in the country?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2021, 04:54:11 pm by nenjin »
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Cautivo del Milagro seamos, Penitente.
Quote from: Viktor Frankl
When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
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Quote from: Eric Blank
How will I cheese now assholes?
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Random_Dragon

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #45944 on: August 15, 2021, 04:54:00 pm »

Honestly it's a mess all around. Also seems a bit...not sure I'd call it ironic, but definitely something, how Iraq was the side-show back in the early days, basically just an excuse to finish the Gulf War, and yet it's been holding with what little level of US support is left compared to how quickly things fell apart in Afghanistan. I'm not sure if that speaks more to how different the situation is in each country, vs. our actions in each.

If it is the latter, then a reasonable explanation would be that going to Iraq with the goal of finishing what Bush Sr. started and getting rid of Saddam basically forced the US to make at least some effort to replace the resulting power vacuum with people on our side, whereas hunting terrorists in Afghanistan and helping strength the Afghani government are merely complimentary goals.

The risk of neglecting one goal to focus on the other would have predictable consequences, if that is indeed a factor.
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