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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4228038 times)

Folly

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39975 on: October 02, 2020, 05:09:52 pm »

Our daily bad-faith discussion with Spin aside, Trump has just been hospitalized at Walter Reed. They're claiming it's precautionary, as they did with Boris, but nobody including insiders has seen him since yesterday and he's been flown in.

I assume that 'an abundance of caution' is WH code for Trump trying to cure his COVID with a homemade bleach suppository.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39976 on: October 02, 2020, 05:13:34 pm »

The other thing that is important to note is that one much-cited factor in the 2016 election was people being afraid to admit they supported him. With him as an incumbent, that's weakened a lot, and I see a lot more open supporters now than I did 4 years ago. That suggests that the systemic "all polls understated support for Trump" issue from then probably won't come into play.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39977 on: October 02, 2020, 05:13:47 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:52:35 pm by dragdeler »
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Maximum Spin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39978 on: October 02, 2020, 05:17:07 pm »

No they wouldn't? Genotype isn't phenotype, shit will pop up generations later.
It doesn't pop up by magic, though; it just takes many generations' work, but we have equations for how long it takes a certain degree of negative selective pressure to eliminate a genotype from the population, so we can easily calculate that it's possible. To put it in Punnett square simplification terms, if all recessive-homozygotes do not reproduce (such as by being eliminated), heterozygote carriers have only ⅓ heterozygote kids on average and ⅔ homozygous-for-the-dominant-trait, while dominant-homozygotes have 4/3 as many dominant-homozygote babies. As such, the population of heterozygotes decreases every generation and is eventually lost (since humans are discrete rather than continuous) in the limit. (It's much easier if the trait is dominant, since then everyone with the genotype will show the phenotype, so once you have removed those, they're just... gone.) Obviously, real genetics is significantly more complicated but it still works out in the limit, which is why...
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Eugenics programs have never removed any trait from a population, no matter how many people they killed or sterilized.
This is 100% false: it has been done successfully on animals many times. It doesn't work on people primarily because people get really upset about it and tend to declare war on you, leave your weird doomsday cult, or whatever applies in the given situation. No eugenics program (thankfully) has ever operated on humans for more than a couple generations at a time.

Modern genetic research says it wouldn't "work" because you can't eliminate carriers of recessive traits from the population because everyone is a carrier for at least one genetic disease.
Well, you can't do it for literally every genetic disease at once, no. I'm not sure that everyone is a carrier for at least one genetic disease except maybe in the extremely broad mutational load sense - I mean to say, I'd need to see some more data before I could conclude that everyone is a carrier of at least one specific genetic mutation linked to a specific disease - but even still, you would obviously have to pick specific traits, yes. I thought that went without saying.
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So eugenics "working" just involves forcibly euthenizing people who express the traits, forcibly sterilizing the relatives of people who express the traits.
Yes, that's what it is, yes. But that doesn't mean it "doesn't work", just that it's "a horrible idea for bad people".
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Eugenics is a pseudoscientific excuse to carry out racist genocide, that is the outcome of eugenics, so unless you and Dawkins are a fan of that it's unclear why you want to fight the "impossibility" of eugenics
And see, this response is just batshit. You're saying that because something is WRONG, it should be declared impossible regardless of whether it is actually impossible. I want the facts, not what makes me happy. As it happens, eugenics on humans would be really hard, which is a good thing, but even if it were easy I'd rather know the truth than say BUT IT'S WRONG? The fact that it's wrong is a separate issue.

For the record, Spin, people seem to be on edge due to your past statements before this convo than anything. The stuff you are referencing about racial health outcomes due to covid and latitude does seem to be a possibility based on the research I've heard. Though you should have added sources wayyyyyyyyyyy earlier in. :P
I don't do sources. If people want to learn they should look at the data themselves and come to their own opinion.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39979 on: October 02, 2020, 05:21:29 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:52:38 pm by dragdeler »
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RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39980 on: October 02, 2020, 05:24:49 pm »

Thanks for the analysis, RedKing. Objectively determining how things could shake out quells fears somewhat and gives me hope.

By no means do we rest with this knowledge, of course, and the general slide of swing states to the right has me worried. You reckon it's from a stronger showing in the debate, or just more indication from voters as the election draws closer?
Well, that's the thing -- there wasn't really a slide to the right. You had 7 seven slide to the left, 2 didn't move (due to lack of polls) and 5 slid right.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39981 on: October 02, 2020, 05:26:33 pm »

Ok set aside the theoritical possibility of it working over generations of genocide.

Please argue the theoretical benefit over biodiversity.
I... don't see how there is one? I mean, for livestock, sure, it leads to a much more efficient food system. We wouldn't be able to feed the current population of the planet with biodiverse livestock. But in the human case, it's mostly just being a douchebag and, well, literally literally Hitler.
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martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39982 on: October 02, 2020, 05:32:32 pm »

Buy your brother a bicycle. Or a horse.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39983 on: October 02, 2020, 05:32:56 pm »

So for what it's worth the flying to Reed was actually just a few minutes ago (I live within visible range of the chopper route). He seems to be walking okay, according to local live footage.
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Sirus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39984 on: October 02, 2020, 05:35:29 pm »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't several crop plants in pretty much constant danger of getting wiped out because they've lost most/all genetic diversity, and thus are incredibly vulnerable to any disease or parasite that comes along? Biodiversity is essential because it adds redundancy in case some nasty plague comes along and kills off huge swaths of one population or another.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39985 on: October 02, 2020, 05:38:05 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:52:41 pm by dragdeler »
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39986 on: October 02, 2020, 05:39:31 pm »

I think that's a distinction between technically working and practically working -- such a practice may technically be able to remove a trait, but that doesn't make it a wise long-term practice.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39987 on: October 02, 2020, 05:42:20 pm »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't several crop plants in pretty much constant danger of getting wiped out because they've lost most/all genetic diversity, and thus are incredibly vulnerable to any disease or parasite that comes along?
Not really, no. A few specific varieties are, especially for plants that reproduce clonally like bananas (the most famous example), but your basic, like, corn, for example, is not anywhere near that.

It is true that biodiversity is important, as those clonal cases do show, but there's a clear intermediate space that can be occupied between "enough biodiversity that they don't just all die" and "the important traits for food use are selected strongly enough that we don't randomly have throwbacks to teosinte or cyanide in our almonds".

See this makes it so tough to read. You know better, yet you entertain these ideas.
Entertain what ideas? Are you seriously saying that you can't see a distinction between "this would be in principle possible" and "therefore we should do this"? Lots of really awful things would work, man. I'm not going to pretend that something is impossible just because it's bad, I care about truth.

I think that's a distinction between technically working and practically working -- such a practice may technically be able to remove a trait, but that doesn't make it a wise long-term practice.
Well, "wise" is relative. It's worked out just fine as a long-term practice in agriculture.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39988 on: October 02, 2020, 05:45:55 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:52:44 pm by dragdeler »
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #39989 on: October 02, 2020, 05:47:07 pm »

My point is actually similar to your first point above -- in e.g. agriculture there are ways to do it very wrong. And it can be pretty high stakes.
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