So anyways....rather than engage with "just the tip" eugenics-lite, let's revisit the electoral numbers I posted about 2.5 weeks ago and see how they've shifted, shall we?
Using the same category of "safe" as a 7-point or greater differential, there have been no changes to the list of safe states for either side, save one exception:
Minnesota (was D+5) is now polling an average of D+9.4, a pretty whopping 4.4 percent shift in two weeks. This may be partly a statistical artifact as older polls drop out of the average. In any case, we can confidently give Minnesota's 10 EVs to Biden, which brings us to 227-108 with 37 states accounted for.
Of the remaining "swing" states:
Alaska (R+3, 3 EV, Trump) - unchanged
Arizona (D+5.7, 11 EV, Trump) -- now D+3, a change of -2.7
Arkansas (R+2, 6 EV, Trump) - unchanged
Florida (D+1.2, 29 EV, Trump) - now D+1.1, a change of -0.1
Georgia (R+1.3, 16 EV, Trump - now D+0.3, a change of -1.6 and a flip
Iowa (R+1.7, 6 EV, Trump) - now D+0.5, a change of -2.2 and a flip
Michigan (D+4.2, 16 EV, Trump) - now D+5.2, a change of 1.0
Nevada (D+4, 6 EV, Clinton) - now D+5.3, a change of 1.3
North Carolina (D+0.8, 15 EV, Trump) - now D+0.5, a change of -0.3
Ohio (D+2.4, 18 EV, Trump) - now D+3.3, a change of 0.9
Pennsylvania (D+4.3, 20 EV, Trump) - now D5.7, a change of 1.4
South Carolina (R+5, 9 EV, Trump) - now R+5.7, a change of 1.4**
Texas (R+3.5, 38 EV, Trump) - now R+3.2, a change of -0.3
Wisconsin (D+6.4, 10 EV, Trump) - now D+5.5, a change of -0.9
**should be noted that the polls are all over the map on S. Carolina. A poll this week from Quinnipiac has it at R+1, while another this week from CBSNews/YouGov has it at R+10.
So overall what we see is a few close races getting closer (AZ, FL, NC, TX), one relatively strong Dem lean weakening (WI), one relatively weak Dem lean strengthening (OH), three relatively strong Dem leans strengthening (MI, NV, PA), and two weak Rep leans flipping (GA, IA). The lack of change for AK and AR are because of a lack of poll data. It would be really interesting for someone to run some new polls there and see if they've followed Georgia and Iowa in sliding 1.5-2 points toward Biden. Which might be enough to flip Arkansas and at least make Alaska too close to call. The fact that the EVs at stake are so low probably explain the lack of polling interest.
I'm sticking by my earlier calls, with the exception that I'll put Arizona and Georgia back in play, which gives us 8 swing states and a tally of 237-170.
To win, Biden needs to pick up 33 EVs, Trump needs 100.
Arizona (D+3, 11 EV)
Georgia (D+0.3, 16 EV)
Florida (D+1.1, 29 EV)
Michigan (D+5.2, 16 EV)
Nevada (D+5.3, 6 EV)
North Carolina (D+0.5, 15 EV)
Ohio (D+3.3, 18 EV)
Pennsylvania (D+5.7, 20 EV)
Once again, Biden can win with Florida and literally any other state. But he also has numerous ways to win without Florida. If he just takes Michigan and Pennsylvania (where he's up by over 5 in both), he wins. If he somehow takes Georgia and North Carolina and Nevada (maybe Trump shits on grits and Biden complains about the Midwest being boring as fuck), he still wins.
Trump on the other hand, has to win at least 6 of 8. Even if he takes the largest five (FL, PA, OH, MI, GA) that only gets him to 99. Which leaves Biden NC, NV and AZ and 32 votes, and yes you guessed it -- a 269-269 tie. It's essentially impossible for Trump to win without taking at least one of the upper Midwest states (PA, OH, MI) and for each one he loses, he basically needs to win two of the others. It would technically be possible for Trump to lose Florida and win the election by taking all the rest of the states, but that's incredibly unlikely.
The interesting bit is that these polls only run up to 9/30, so they don't really capture any movement due to the debates or Trump's COVID diagnosis. Should be a *very* interesting next couple of weeks as we capture the effects of those events in new poll data. It might get more chaotic, or it might be the nail in Trump's coffin. A national 2-point shift would be enough to all but guarantee a Biden victory, and potentially flip TX, AR, and AK. Which could run the final EC margin up to something like 359-179, which would almost but not quite edge out Barack Obama's victory margin in 2008 (365-173).
FAKEEDIT: Oh, and if Quinnipiac is right and SC is actually more like R+1, then a 2-point shift would flip it as well, and Biden's win would actually trump (no pun intended) Obama's 2008 win, at 368-170.