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[ZBridges]

Trump’s political career is dead in the water. All the dems have to do is not completely **** it up and they’ll win by a landslide.

I've heard that many times after several other scandals, but his supporters have always remained intensely loyal.  I wouldn't count him out yet.

[thompson]

Trump’s political career is dead in the water. All the dems have to do is not completely **** it up and they’ll win by a landslide.

I've heard that many times after several other scandals, but his supporters have always remained intensely loyal.  I wouldn't count him out yet.

Can’t vote if they’re dead.

[delphonso]

Trump’s political career is dead in the water. All the dems have to do is not completely **** it up and they’ll win by a landslide.

I've heard that many times after several other scandals, but his supporters have always remained intensely loyal.  I wouldn't count him out yet.

Can’t vote if they’re dead.

Sanders appealed to the younger crowd. If his campaign is done, his voters will be apathetic. That'll certainly lose more voters than will die of the virus.

My money is on Trump again. Literally would bet on it.

[Quarque]

we could be looking at 1 million fatalities by the end of April. I’d expect the measures the states are taking to slow this down somewhat, but containment appears impossible now. This thing could kill more Americans than WW2.

1 million is optimistic [even though I think the shit is going to hit the fan a little later than end april]. Exponential growth is going to kick in, and things can get far worse than they are in Italy right now. At some point, hospitals will overflow and the surge of new patients can't be treated at all. At that point, the death rate is going to be significantly higher than it was.

Trump’s political career is dead in the water.

God damn I hope you're right. He has proven beyond doubt that he is a severe danger to the whole world. But I will have to see it first.

[wierd]

At a 3% death-rate statistic, with a population of ~327million, we should expect 9.8 million deaths.

We may or may not experience that many with good medical care, but I am not hopeful.  The US's healthcare system has been barely functional for decades, with insufficient doctors to meet baseline needs, overpriced medical equipment and drugs, etc.

[ZBridges]

The highest projected number of US infections I've seen was 214 million, from the CDC.  I don't think it's necessarily true that the entire population will contract the virus.

[wierd]

That's still 6.4 million as worst case statistic at 3% fatality rate.

[thompson]

It’s not just the deaths. You’ll also have the households of the people who died or went into intensive care and had to foot part of the medical bills. You’ll have people who are denied medical treatment without COVID-19 because the hospital system was overwhelmed by the virus and all the intensive care beds were taken. You’ll have the newly unemployed who also lost their health insurance. And you have an administration which made some very serious errors in testing early on, had no plan, and repeatedly downplayed the threat. Cognitive dissonance might keep many in the Republican ranks, but November is a long way away. Some of them will figure it out by then.

But alas, there was an “if” in my earlier statement. Dems could **** it up. Definitely within their capacity.

[Kagus]

I was about to say... Asking the democratic party to not utterly fuck themselves at every step is honestly a pretty tall order.

[wierd]

Well, Bernie kinda roasted them on the news.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/sanders-gop-senators-coronavirus-cnntv/index.html

[Bralbaard]

Trump’s political career is dead in the water.

God damn I hope you're right. He has proven beyond doubt that he is a severe danger to the whole world. But I will have to see it first.

I can't quite shake the feeling that this can only result in a Trump landslide. I've not seen any signs that the democrats are going to have a good candidate, and the current crisis will only increase fear and xenophobia further, not to mention that it will increase distrust in goverment and institutions. Trump has thrived on those sentiments in the past, and without a doubt he will again.

(yes I know he is the goverment, but stuff like that just slides right off him)

[Iduno]

We get to eat the rich, when?

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

On the current trajectory COVID-19 deaths increase by a factor of 10 every 7-10 days in the US. If it keeps up at this rate we could be looking at 1 million fatalities by the end of April. I’d expect the measures the states are taking to slow this down somewhat, but containment appears impossible now. This thing could kill more Americans than WW2.

Trump’s political career is dead in the water. All the dems have to do is not completely **** it up and they’ll win by a landslide.

Guess what? Democrats are running D Trump against R Trump.

Also, "fun" story. Based on the statistics (there were no records kept of cause of death), the biggest killer of US soldiers was almost certainly the cigarettes they were given.

Sanders appealed to the younger crowd. If his campaign is done, his voters will be apathetic. That'll certainly lose more voters than will die of the virus.

My money is on Trump again. Literally would bet on it.

Best case scenario would be Democrats coming in third behind a third party candidate, and have to reconsider their strategy of "can we be further right than the Republicans?"

[SalmonGod]

Yeah, Biden doesn't stand a chance against Trump.  There's going to be a ton of popular anger over this (already is but there will be much much more), and something is going to come of it for sure.  But it's not going to be a Democrat victory.  Democrats tossed out the one candidate who could have channeled that popular anger, and instead chose someone who will be as much a target of that anger as Trump will be.  They've already thrown away the election.

I know for damn sure that my response to a massive failure of the healthcare industry in a pandemic isn't going to be to vote for the guy who said he would veto M4A, and is paid off by the industry that is currently fielding lawsuits against the 3d printing of cheap ventilators to save people's lives and otherwise doing their damndest to position themselves to profit off the misery and deaths of millions.

BTW, my dad was confirmed to have Covid-19 yesterday.  He's doing ok at the moment, but says he feels like an elephant is sitting on his chest.  This means my whole family, including myself, is likely carrying it right now.  I'm buckled in for some !!fun!! over the next couple weeks.

Edit:

BTW, please remember all of the desperate cries of boredom circulating the internet right now, and let them forever debunk the notion that people are inherently lazy and require the threat of poverty and death to motivate them to work, lest society cease its functioning.  We're literally being told to sit at home and watch tv or play video games or whatever, and a good portion of people fucking hate it.

[sluissa]

I'd say it's still a solid coin flip. I don't think either Biden or Trump has a real advantage at this point, but there's plenty of time for that to change.

For as much as I like Bernie, Biden has generally always held a better position against Trump in the general and the polls are still showing that.

[BurnedToast]

Yeah, Biden doesn't stand a chance against Trump.  There's going to be a ton of popular anger over this (already is but there will be much much more), and something is going to come of it for sure.  But it's not going to be a Democrat victory.  Democrats tossed out the one candidate who could have channeled that popular anger, and instead chose someone who will be as much a target of that anger as Trump will be.  They've already thrown away the election.

I know for damn sure that my response to a massive failure of the healthcare industry in a pandemic isn't going to be to vote for the guy who said he would veto M4A, and is paid off by the industry that is currently fielding lawsuits against the 3d printing of cheap ventilators to save people's lives and otherwise doing their damndest to position themselves to profit off the misery and deaths of millions.

BTW, my dad was confirmed to have Covid-19 yesterday.  He's doing ok at the moment, but says he feels like an elephant is sitting on his chest.  This means my whole family, including myself, is likely carrying it right now.  I'm buckled in for some !!fun!! over the next couple weeks.

Edit:

BTW, please remember all of the desperate cries of boredom circulating the internet right now, and let them forever debunk the notion that people are inherently lazy and require the threat of poverty and death to motivate them to work, lest society cease its functioning.  We're literally being told to sit at home and watch tv or play video games or whatever, and a good portion of people fucking hate it.

Biden is polling as beating trump just as much as sanders. Or to look at it another way, let me ask you this: Democratic primary attendance was way up - 50% - 200% higher than 2016, depending on the state. All those extra voters aren't voting for sanders, they are voting for biden. Biden has won every demographic that clinton won, and also picked up significant portions of some demographics sanders won in 2016.

Meanwhile compared to 2016 sanders is doing better in.... *checks notes* california, which is 99.99999% to go blue no matter what.

So tell me again how is sanders supposed to beat trump when he can't even get his core base to actually go out and vote but biden is going to lose despite an energized democratic base that's overwhelmingly choosing him?