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[smjjames]

Found an interesting simulation on ranked choice voting for the Dem primary:

Data and the simulation.

Vox article that discusses it

Turns out that whether starting from a slate of all 20 (less now actually, I think it may be 19 now that De Blasio dropped out) or from the top 10 or 5, the resilts were similar each time. Of course, it's just a simulation, it's not neccesarily a sign that Warren will ultimately win.

[Iduno]

Yeah, Warren has said she'll work within the current system to make it work. Sanders wants change that people with money don't like, so they're fighting him hard. Then you have people like Beto, Harris, and Biden who are so obviously right-wing that most people aren't falling for the act.

[PTTG??]

I just can't believe we have a front runner running solely on "I'm winning, so vote for me."

[Rolan7]

I'm just glad he's no longer predicted to win

[Dunamisdeos]

There's a subset of the population who will vote for Trump over Biden the same way they voted for Trump over Hillary.

I really hope Biden doesn't end up running against Trump.

[hector13]

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.

[smjjames]

There's a subset of the population who will vote for Trump over Biden the same way they voted for Trump over Hillary.

I really hope Biden doesn't end up running against Trump.

That subset is probably going to vote Trump over any Dem candidate, unless I’m mistaken as to what subset your talking about.

[Telgin]

I assume that was referring to swing voters, since otherwise I agree.  Almost every conservative I know would of vote for a Republican candidate over a Democratic one regardless of their platform.  I don't know enough liberals to tell if the opposite is true.

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.

Normally I'd say that Bernie is the sort of candidate for something like that, but clearly he doesn't appeal to the majority of left wing voters.  I think he mostly appeals to the younger generations.

It's tough because I feel like there's no equivalent to what Trump energizes people over.  Thinking back on it, I'm wondering how Obama managed it, and I want to hope it was more than just an endorsement from Oprah...

Maybe the only thing that works going forward is being a celebrity, which is a scary thought.

[Reelya]

We need someone who will energize the left the same way Trump energizes the right.

Biden is not that someone.

Energize the left only works to get rid of Trump if low turnout was the cause of the defeat. Otherwise, you're asking for blood from a stone

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/upshot/a-2016-review-turnout-wasnt-the-driver-of-clintons-defeat.html

EDIT: opinion polls consistently show that over 40% of America call themselves "conservative" whereas only about ~22% call themselves "liberal". Stuff that only appeals to a subset of liberals, such as radical left stuff, isn't the "energizing the base" stuff you're looking for. Hardcore leftists are going to hate their own party no matter what, because to actually win, you need to broaden that base beyond people who consider themselves "liberal", so you'll inevitably have stuff on your platform that pisses off the rad left, meaning if they're not turning out to vote for you now, they never will. You just cannot simply mirror what a Republican is doing, strategy-wise, because you don't have the numbers of hardcore believers available to make that work.

My view is that if you really want to win, you need to have something the swing vote wants. The key point here, is that is doesn't have to be what Trump's offering them. But it has to be something and not nothing. See what the top three things that concern the swing vote are, then pick some of those and find things the Democrats can offer them, and - critically - work it into language that isn't going to be a turn-off. That "firing up the base" far left language won't cut it. It's appealing to statistically 10% of the nation, who are either turning up already or not going to bother.

[smjjames]

*sigh* Do you need to be a subscriber to NYT to see anything at all now? Because it's blocking me with the 'you need to subscribe' (I thought I hadn't yet reached the limit, maybe not) message and they've figured out how to block it when it's in private view.

The thing though is that Trump isn't really offering swing voters anything, at least nothing that would be interpreted as expanding the base or pivoting to the middle. Yes, there's the economy, but what else?

[Doomblade187]

That's my thing too. The "conservative" and "liberal" portions swap between various numbers based on the survey. But Trump is offering only a conservative agenda. Any propoganda against liberals only skews identity, not the policies offered.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Normally I'd say that Bernie is the sort of candidate for something like that, but clearly he doesn't appeal to the majority of left wing voters.  I think he mostly appeals to the younger generations.

Yeah, he's only so popular that they have to cheat against him to prevent instant victory, clearly an untenable candidate.

Thankfully we have Amy Klobuchar to #HealTheDivide and get those center-right voters energized for compromise!

[Reelya]

That's my thing too. The "conservative" and "liberal" portions swap between various numbers based on the survey. But Trump is offering only a conservative agenda. Any propoganda against liberals only skews identity, not the policies offered.

He didn't win by pushing hardline party conservatism. The hardcore conservative base didn't really like the things he was saying. He pushed a populist position, but a populist position which was also palatable (if only barely) to the party faithful. That's the kind of strategy that wins. The doctrinaire conservatives all lost, that's why you are where you are at. Trump is a radical populist type. For the Democrats, you pick something that appeals strongly to the undecided voters, but which the party faithful will get on board with too, even if they grumble a bit. The party faithful will grumble, but still vote for you, if you don't offer something appealing to them. The undecideds will grumble then vote for the other guy if you don't offer something appealing to them.

The best possible 100% losing position would be to take the attitude that you push "radical socialist renewal" then attack middle America when they somehow don't see the benefits and jump on board. It might be ideologically pure, but it's electoral suicide and you might as well paint the swastikas on the walls yourself since you've basically sold the country to the right wing if you push the Democrats that way, since you've made your side so unappealing by pushing hard-left that the Republicans can swing even further right without fear of losing the middle vote, since you've gone full communist.

[Doomblade187]

Uh, the Democratic party is at *most left* currently, European Socialist levels of leftism.

No commies running for president. Also, most "Radical Socialist Renewal" or whatever the fuck name you came up with targets the Rich.

Not the middle class.

[Reelya]

I'm not talking about the current candidates, I'm commenting on how a lot of people here seem to want the party to go. They seem to want things to swing left of AOC and expect that to be a winning strategy.

EDIT also:

most "Radical Socialist Renewal" or whatever the fuck name you came up with targets the Rich.

Sure, that's the truth of it. But what matters is perception. You need to win the perception wars. Otherwise, you get to sit in your corners sucking your thumbs grumbling "but we were right!"