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[Lord Shonus]

The drone in question is one of the newest airliner-sized variety that can probably radar map most of Iran from international waters. There is little reason for it to enter Iranian territory.

[PTTG??]

The drone in question is one of the newest airliner-sized variety that can probably radar map most of Iran from international waters. There is little reason for it to enter Iranian territory.

Unless it was ordered into Iranian territory by John Bolton or some other warmonger specifically to raise tensions.

It makes no goddamned sense for Iran to incite a war. The second the first US bomb falls, Iran as a state ceases to be. As a morass of tribal conflicts, petty warlords, and unceasing terrorism, it will persist for decades, sure, but nobody living in Iran could possibly expect starting a war with the US to go well for them.

God, I hope John Bolton has a heart attack and dies, soon.

[smjjames]

The drone in question is one of the newest airliner-sized variety that can probably radar map most of Iran from international waters. There is little reason for it to enter Iranian territory.

Perhaps, but it was apparently right inside the strait of Hormuz, I can't tell from the map provided if it was indeed inside international waters because it looks pretty close to where Omani/UAE waters and Iranian waters meet and theres no space between.

[Jopax]

Yeah, until a third party confirms the location of it when it was shot down, I really see no reason to trust US sources on this, because it wouldn't be the first time the US used false data to incite shit in the middle east. Iran doesn't stand to gain much by starting shit, but it stands to lose everything if it escalates beyond a certain point.

[smjjames]

Only problem is that the ones who would be able to see it on radar, UAE and Oman, won't finger the US, so, that leaves whatever civillian craft in the area happen to see the smoke from the drone. But even THEN, it'd still be disputed because it looks to me like it's possibly smack in the middle of there, could even be within kilometers of the border.

Now Trump thinks it might be accidential? I can't tell if he's being an idiot or if he's trying to subtly give Iran an offramp. Especially considering that the Revolutionary Guard corps are a rogue branch of the Iranian military and could be acting contrary to the orders of High Ayatollah Kohemeni.

[PTTG??]

The onion clarifies the situation.

[Telgin]

I also don't understand what Iran would have to gain by starting a war, and I'd be very afraid of even risking it if I were them.  I also don't really see the point in the US trying to stir up trouble by actually flying the drone into their territory, since we can concoct reasons to start a war without needing to do that.

[smjjames]

They could be banking on (and betting) that Trump really doesn't want to get into an actual shooting war. A war of words, sure, but 'not getting the US into another expensive and pointless war' is a pretty bipartisan position.

Only problem, they've now fired the first shot and it's now known that when those two tanker ships got hit with an unidentified munition, the Iranians were shooting at another drone. Whether or not they shot with intent to shoot down or not that time, this time, the burden is on them to de-escalate.

Also, they're now claiming they've recovered pieces of it from the water inside their territory. The problem with this is that unless they recovered it right on the spot where was hit, the debris can plausibly be drifted into Iranian territory in a span of hours (depends on the conditions) and the debris spread from the explosion could end up being quite big, so, this claim solves nothing unless they can demonstrate with proof of where and when exactly the debris was found.

[Trekkin]

At this point, following the pattern of this administration, I'm just going to assume it was the Saudis.

[smjjames]

The Saudis shot down the drone? That'd be impossible because we know where the missile was shot from and they saw the drone explode and Iran isn't denying it.

[Lord Shonus]

I also don't understand what Iran would have to gain by starting a war, and I'd be very afraid of even risking it if I were them.  I also don't really see the point in the US trying to stir up trouble by actually flying the drone into their territory, since we can concoct reasons to start a war without needing to do that.

If it is Iran, the motive is straightforward.  They're  demonstrating  how dangerous a war with them would be, without inflicting casualties that would force a reprisal. If they can demonstrate a "fight us and we shut the planet down", then they've got a pretty substantial bargaining chip  in any negotiations.

Not saying  it is Iran, there's not enough evidence to support that right now.  There is, however, a plausible motive.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Iran could absolutely beat the US in a war. It wouldn't be good for Iran, but it sure as shit would get interesting around the time we get to watch a US aircraft carrier burning and sinking into the Strait of Hormuz on CNN.

[PTTG??]

It seems pretty clear to me that the biggest threat to American security is John Bolton.

[Frumple]

I'unno about biggest, but you probably wouldn't see argument from much of anyone that's been paying attention that he's not at least somewhere in the top ten, maybe even top three or so.

[smjjames]

Here's some political laughs and utterly ridiculous behavior, all of Oregons Republican state Senators literally fled the capitol in an attempt to evade a cap and trade carbon emissions bill. Rofl. The issue itself isn't utterly ridiculous (some Republicans would say it is though 😛 ) and deserves debate, as it should, but the behavior is totally ridiculous, lol....