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[smjjames]

Is that 3-1 ratio of people saying Moore should drop out coming from Alabama? Because I don't think Qunnipiac does state focused polls, at least this one doesn't seem to be.

[smjjames]

Anyways, yeah, the establishment Republicans are desperate to keep Moore from becoming Senator and are trying everything they can think of.

It's a real no-win situation because Moore would heavily damage the Republican Party if he becomes Senator and if the succeed in expelling him, it would create even more division between the establishment and those who would vote for someone like Moore. And I guess there's the what-if Moore wins the new special election.

Even the 'lesser of two evils' case where Doug Jones wins is a no-win for the Republicans as they'd have an even narrower majority. At least until 2020, unless Doug Jones somehow becomes popular enough in Alabama to win then.

[RedKing]

Yeah, this one seems national. Still, I would like to point out that while yes, Trump had some pretty bad allegations come out against him in the election that never seemed to matter, right now there also seems to be a bit of a "cultural moment" regarding these sorts of things. In other words, Trump's success in the polls does not forecast Moore's, due to different environments.

I think there were a couple of state polls that had them within 2 percentage points of each other though?

Again, meh. That "cultural moment" is in places with civilization. Outside of maybe the more affluent neighborhoods of Birmingham, I doubt most Alabamians give two shits about sexual harassment, unless it's a big-city Hollyweird libruhl like Harvey Weinstein and Kevin Spacey. And even then, any uproar is driven by the perps being on "the other team" rather than some kind of woke redneck enlightenment.

A new poll out yesterday showed Moore up six points. A telling tidbit from the cross-tabs:

When asked if the recent allegations that Moore had a sexual encounter with a teenager had influenced their choice, 36 percent of likely voters said they had planned to vote for his opponent anyway.

Another 35 percent said the allegations made them more likely to vote for Moore, while 11 percent said they were less likely to vote for the Republican.

Let that sink in for a moment. 35 percent of respondents said that allegations of sexual advances against a 14-year old made them MORE likely to vote for the guy. This is pure tribalism. Morality has gone out the window, shut the window behind it, and taped the window shut with a sign reading "Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here".

[smjjames]

I'd probably boil down that 35% further into whether the reason the allegations against Moore  made them more likely to vote for him is because they think the allegations are fake news pushed by the Dems rather than "Yay! Sex offender!".

But yes, it is indeed pure tribalism, even the Alabama GOP are sticking with Moore.

Edit: ninja'd

[RedKing]

35% is also, roughly, a reasonable estimate of Trump's base in Alabama.

Though if you want a different opinion on that poll, take 538's take, which is that of that 35%, most of them don't believe in the allegations in the first place and were responding as a "fuck you liberal media" rather than a "it's fine to fuck 14-year-olds" perspective.

That's....exactly what I said a few posts back. This is a culture war battle now, and they're voting for him out of sheer obstinance. But 538 also doesn't see a lot of potential for Jones to win. These are people who would rather vote a dead Republican into office than a live Democrat. There are extremely few swing voters in Alabama (presumably because anybody with that much of an open mind and the resources to leave have already left).

Per 538's analysis, the best hope for Jones is that a fair chunk of rural whites grow a conscience in the next month or so, and stay home. They'll never flip their vote, but if they withdraw it altogether, Jones has a slim chance. Meanwhile, you can bet there's gonna be a lot of preachers exhorting their congregations to get out there and cast their vote for a godly man, lest evil prevail in the form of a Democrat.

The other potential is if a couple of competing write-in vote movements get rolling and refuse to consolidate. Strange vs. Sessions vs. Moore might dliute the vote enough for Jones to pull ahead. With the added fun of the various Republican factions blaming each other for the loss afterwards.

[sluissa]

I think you stereotype Alabamians far too harshly. Certainly those people you describe exist, and they exist in higher concentrations there than elsewhere in the country, but the state is full of a diverse set of people.

[RedKing]

I think you stereotype Alabamians far too harshly. Certainly those people you describe exist, and they exist in higher concentrations there than elsewhere in the country, but the state is full of a diverse set of people.

*shrug* Probably so. But I'll wait to be proven wrong. My travels to places like Mississippi and Oklahoma have been good reminders that there are parts of the United States that have more in common with rural China than with urban America. And likewise, urban America (especially on the coasts) has more in common with Europe than with "middle" America.

[smjjames]

I think you mean rural Europe, the same rural/urban divide also exists in Europe.

[RedKing]

I think you mean rural Europe, the same rural/urban divide also exists in Europe.

No, I meant rural China. Unless rural Europe is a lot more backwards than I expected.

[smjjames]

Do you mean technologically, development wise, or ideologically?

[Rolan7]

Hot Fuzz was a documentary /s

Idunno.  You know our North Carolina gets painted with a broad brush a lot, as if our relatively-progressive urban areas don't exist.  I assumed Alabama and Mississippi had similar divides, though probably generally worse.  But I haven't actually been to either.

[Trekkin]

Hot Fuzz was a documentary /s

Idunno.  You know our North Carolina gets painted with a broad brush a lot, as if our relatively-progressive urban areas don't exist.  I assumed Alabama and Mississippi had similar divides, though probably generally worse.  But I haven't actually been to either.

It's not that Research Triangle Park doesn't exist, it's that the vast majority of its inhabitants came from out of state and will return there as their careers dictate, never really venturing outside of its borders. People who call themselves North Carolinians proudly are a more unified subset of the general population.

[Dunamisdeos]

Every single one of you of you is a gun-humping bunch of poor, pedophilic, backwards-thinking idiots because you live in Alabama. If you had a hint of tolerance, education, or understanding, you wouldn't live in Alabama. Your beliefs are stupid, and so are you, because you live in Alabama. Why won't you vote Democrat? Must be tribalism, because I in my superior well-traveled wisdom have determined that all of you are irredeemable animals.

I don't have anything nice to say here, and I'm sorry. I'm 100% not surprised that anyone would vote for a criminal of literally any kind over this. I would absolutely vote for the opposition to anyone who treated me like this, and anything that person said about them would immediately be taken as a lie, thereby increasing my willingness to vote for them.

What we've made exceptionally clear to them (whether intentionally or not) is that we are fighting not for ideals or against the kind of evil that Moore represents but against other human beings judged to be lesser than we. These people look to us, and not our political leaders, as an example of the alternative... and this is what we present.

[Rolan7]

It's not that Research Triangle Park doesn't exist, it's that the vast majority of its inhabitants came from out of state and will return there as their careers dictate, never really venturing outside of its borders. People who call themselves North Carolinians proudly are a more unified subset of the general population.

No, that's not right.  People who permanently live in the Triangle (two cities & one town surrounding the RTP) are significantly left of the national average, based on my personal experience and also stats.  The mountains are generally even lefter.

You're right that a lot of people are drawn to the area from far-away places, maaaybe temporarily, but that's not really relevant.  Our cities are actually quite liberal.  We're only a swing state because of our rural neighbors who tend to swing right.  Often very far right.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

RTP, Charlotte, Asheville, UNC towns...NC is a swing state, not a red state. The rural areas have just been better organized during the Obama years, but that pendulum is about to swing back.

I was born here and I resent the idea that we're all haughty carpetbaggers and Not Real Southerners.