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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4453327 times)

smjjames

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He wouldn't need to be supplied by a larger organization to amass an arsenal of guns and ammo, not in the US. I don't know anything about regulation of fertilizer and ammonium nitrate.

I really, REALLY hope the guy turns out to be hardcore conservative, because all this conservative BS about "DURRR! ONLY LIBRULS DO MASS SHOOT'NG! DURRR!" (massively hyperboled on my part) is really stupid and I'm tired of it.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 06:46:28 pm by smjjames »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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I'm starting to suspect this might fall into the "enigma" category, where there's no apparent motive and we never discover one.
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nenjin

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To be honest I've always thought the mental illness exclusion to gunownership laws has always been a bit of a red herring.

Sure, truly crazy people are unpredictable and them having access to guns is terrifying. But is that really what we've been seeing these last years? People with documented histories of mental illness slipping or sliding through all the cracks in the system to end up owning guns and deciding to use them? I don't think so. We've been seeing people with political ideals who either already own a gun or stockpile guns as a hobby/political statement, who finally snap under the pressure of this shit we call American Politics and decide, fuck it, time to terrify the country and "wake people up to the violence seething beneath the surface."

You can characterize that as mentally unstable, and I don't think you'd get much disagreement. Committing mass murder without any direct provocation to you would be considered by most people as mental instability, and you don't have to be mentally ill to be, at a time and place in your life, mentally unstable. But when you talk about mentally ill people, the person sitting to their left or right is not what most Americans think of as mentally ill. We still think the crazy disheveled person talking to themselves, rumpled dirty clothes, the classic Hollywood crazy. The kind that draw attention to themselves by virtue of their disorder. That hasn't been many of the shootings we've experienced like this.

So I've never felt that the democratic insistence that mental health as a requirement for gun ownership will prevent days like this. It should have been there a long time ago and that probably would have saved the lives of tens of thousands of gun deaths that don't make the news. But it's never going to catch shit like this. Mass shooters have just been improving their game since Columbine, and that means not tipping your hand before it's too late. Social media has fucked that up for some because they're not in control enough to stop themselves. But the truly committed ones that have no tells and seem perfectly normal to the people around them....? How do you catch them, except by actually looking at their behavior in stockpiling weapons and ammo? We have the ATF but some dumbfuck decided they didn't need any money to do their jobs, compound by some other stupid shit that tarnished their image. We've sabotaged our own ability to prevent stuff like this through the metrics we have and know, and the political narrative around is so hysterical you can't even talk about it without triggering people on both sides.

What SHOULD catch stuff like this is, I dunno, a private citizen buying thousands and thousands of rounds of ammunition, owning a small personal arsenal of weaponry. Gee, maybe that's worth at least a look? An inquiry, perhaps? Does he like to shoot guns on the weekend with his friends in a legally-approved setting? Cool, have fun. Has it just been growing and growing in their home, and gee, have they tried to buy ballistic body armor lately? Hrmmmmmmmmm.

I think that shows a level premeditation, which is generally not the preview of the mentally ill. It also makes me question the whole "they had no political leanings" being reported. Survivalist/conspiracy/militia types tend to go hand in hand with some kind of political belief. Even "it's all bullshit and we should burn it all down" is a political stance.

I dunno, maybe it will come out that he was a paranoid schizophrenic or something, that somewhere he was journaling what he actually thought and felt. People snap, it's true, and I guess in the end their motive isn't super relevant. But the whole "white guy loses his mind and starts shooting" always gets treated like a mental illness, or as a I said, a moment of mental instability. But to me it's becoming more likely in this day and age that people who fantasize about real life violence and have political pressure around them hyping them up....when a guy "just snaps" it's more like "a guy knew how to keep his head down and not tip his hand until he was ready to act." Does having a violent deathwish flavored with political beliefs make you mentally ill? I'm guess you'd be classified as such, in the end. I think the desire to murder as many people as possible before your dying yourself....ahem....in real life...is the hallmark of a psychopath. So is that what we've really been cultivating in America the last 20 odd years? A higher and more competent breed of psychopath and mass murderer, who can go through most of their life and wring from it what they want before they decide to check out, maybe while gripped by political belief, maybe not?

Theres more developments, turns out he had fertilizer based explosives in his car and they found several thousand more rounds of ammo and more explosives at one of his homes. It's obvious that he was planning on taking out as many people as possible.

One doesn't amass an arsenal like that without some kind of agenda and there are no hints that he was a collector or a survivalist nut or any other plausible reason for legally having such an arsenal. If it's even legal to have that arsenal in the first place.

edit: Ninja'd by folly's brevity.

Ayup. This ain't mental illness. "No signs he was going to do something" my ass. Maybe if someone had looked at his purchasing history.

I'm starting to suspect this might fall into the "enigma" category, where there's no apparent motive and we never discover one.

Some people are truly lone wolves when it comes to this stuff. But I'm guessing enough forensic work could be done to see who he's been talking to or what he's been interested in of late. The woman he's been living wife or his ex-wife might be able to shed some light on his private life. But yeah, if literally all he's been doing is looking up technical knowledge on how to accomplish his goals and there's no social or politically motivated evidence to inform his actions.....maybe we are dealing with the rare 1% functional psychotic.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 07:13:06 pm by nenjin »
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Dunamisdeos

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The above post is logical and well thought out. +1
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Starver

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It's a bit "American has loads of guns at home. Film at eleven.", though.

Ok, so he is(/was) apparently not a "gun nut", but given that there are more guns in the US than people, if you have any, you probably have several. The nature of the arsenal might be funny, but leaving some at home/in the car and still having enough in his final point of action seems more like a random collection-fixation not being aimed at this particular end-game, which only arose as an idea after he had more than enough materielle to accomplish it without obtaining more.

The apparent fertiliser explosives they found is worrying, but more puzzling then that they weren't put to good use if bought or personally concocted as part of any preparations. And if the sole intent was multi-homocide plus suicide, why not use one of the planes he owned and could fly? With barely any imagination at all, an even more destructive scenario can be imagined, with or without an inevitable self-destructive end-point.

Not that I'm claiming that the apparent plan wasn't the actual plan, just that it's odd enough that there's more corner pieces here than in the usual jigsaw, and I'm also a bit hazy about the number of edge pieces...
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smjjames

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I'm starting to suspect this might fall into the "enigma" category, where there's no apparent motive and we never discover one.

It's still early, he was a big gambler and liked cruises and was moderately wealthy, though I don't know how social a person the guy was, it's possible that he talked to someone or someone overheard something.

Motives aren't always discovered in the first 24 hours.

Theres more developments, turns out he had fertilizer based explosives in his car and they found several thousand more rounds of ammo and more explosives at one of his homes. It's obvious that he was planning on taking out as many people as possible.

One doesn't amass an arsenal like that without some kind of agenda and there are no hints that he was a collector or a survivalist nut or any other plausible reason for legally having such an arsenal. If it's even legal to have that arsenal in the first place.

edit: Ninja'd by folly's brevity.

Ayup. This ain't mental illness. "No signs he was going to do something" my ass. Maybe if someone had looked at his purchasing history.

He'd have to arouse suspicion in someone for them to look at purchasing history. The FBI will definetly be looking into his purchasing history and track down where it all came from.

It's a bit "American has loads of guns at home. Film at eleven.", though.

Ok, so he is(/was) apparently not a "gun nut", but given that there are more guns in the US than people, if you have any, you probably have several. The nature of the arsenal might be funny, but leaving some at home/in the car and still having enough in his final point of action seems more like a random collection-fixation not being aimed at this particular end-game, which only arose as an idea after he had more than enough materielle to accomplish it without obtaining more.

The apparent fertiliser explosives they found is worrying, but more puzzling then that they weren't put to good use if bought or personally concocted as part of any preparations. And if the sole intent was multi-homocide plus suicide, why not use one of the planes he owned and could fly? With barely any imagination at all, an even more destructive scenario can be imagined, with or without an inevitable self-destructive end-point.

Not that I'm claiming that the apparent plan wasn't the actual plan, just that it's odd enough that there's more corner pieces here than in the usual jigsaw, and I'm also a bit hazy about the number of edge pieces...

His pilots license was expired and I didn't see anything about owning planes.
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Dunamisdeos

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Speculation: He was not expecting to be traced back to that hotel room so quickly? If mass death and then his own was his goal, he could have used the arsenal at his disposal more efficiently, and this does not seem like a guy with poor planning skills in terms of efficiency. Maybe he expected to be able to leave in his car and cause more mayhem later. Sounds like he kept guns/ammo/explosives at various points along his intended route, as it were.

Also, didn't they say he had no outward interest of being a collector? I assume they talked to some of his social contacts to ascertain this. They make it sound like he just up and decided to be a mass shooter, and therefore stockpiled an arsenal.
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Starver

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BBC articles mention "According to US media, the suspect had a licence to fly small planes and owned two aircraft." Going by that. If inapplicable, then there are only slightly more corner-pieces than expected for a bog-standard puzzle.
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Starver

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BBC articles mention "According to US media, the suspect had a licence to fly small planes and owned two aircraft." I was going by that. If inapplicable, then there are only slightly more corner-pieces than expected for a bog-standard puzzle.


(ETA: Darnit, replied, didn't edit, for my grammatical tweak, now clearly seen above.)
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Christ, he could have plane bombed any building in Las Vegas.
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smjjames

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@starver: I missed the parts about owning two aircraft, however, his license was expired.

Pure speculation here, but it's entirely possible that he had it as part of his long range plans to do something with one of his planes. It's pretty clear that he had further plans what with the fertilizer based bomb in his car.
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nenjin

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Quote
He was not expecting to be traced back to that hotel room so quickly? If mass death and then his own was his goal, he could have used the arsenal at his disposal more efficiently, and this does not seem like a guy with poor planning skills in terms of efficiency.

Yeah but how many shooters have had explosives they never use? I seem to recall more than a few. My guess is that this is a difference between planning and execution. The former he had experience at. But it takes actual training to juggle that much stuff and execute on it in the moment. Which I think is what you see from a lot of shooters, is the lack of actual training. I know I've said more than once "How many people died? That's awful. Wait, he killed them with an automatic weapon in a crowded room and ONLY killed that many people?"

Real life ain't video games and it cuts both ways.
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Dunamisdeos

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Yeah, that's fair. I suppose all he really succeeded at was (probably) lugging a lot of suitcases into his hotel room without drawing scrutiny.

That's essentially my point though, that he had plans in place that did not pan out after he was pinpointed.

EDIT: Though it is odd that he took his life before the police even arrived, according to the W-post article. Did he know they had found him somehow?

Check this out
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 07:25:27 pm by Dunamisdeos »
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Frumple

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Apparently the planes he had access to were fairly small. Not really possible for him to do more damage with one than he did with the guns. Easier to notice and get out the way of a plane, harder to get it into position to do much, lift weight is a bastard, etc., etc.

Any case, it's definitely viable this was without connection to a larger organization. That "moderately wealthy" smj mentioned has popped up with the word "millions" involved, from what I've seen in passing. Guy was moderately wealthy by the standards of wealthy people. He was straight up rich to the majority of the country.

Resources pretty much couldn't have been an obstacle, even if he was blowing tens of thousands in the casinos. Expertise wise, guy was a hunter, seems to have had at least some professional background in defense industries (probably office work, considering I've been seeing folks call 'im a retired accountant, but connections aren't exactly a hard thing to make if you're looking to make them), and didn't exactly do much that required anything in particular except time and preparation. Had the money, didn't take much expertise, just carefully executed intent and a degree of... goddamnit, whatever the hell that word is that basically means steadiness while stressed.*

Basically, if there's another party involved the connection being material or training seems fairly slim, least from what I've personally noticed mention of, so far.

And yeah, as nenj mentions, without further detail him having a bomb only means so much. Fertilizer bombs are... not terribly difficult to make, as explosives go, and someone intent on mass murder and controlled enough to do somethin' like this would probably have stuff as a backup or step 2 if they have the means. Which again, he had the means, to all appearances.

... also, probably dun? It's not like cops trying to find and stop someone firing into a crowd are hard to notice even before they kick in your door.

* E: Discipline! That's the one. Damn brain.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 07:31:26 pm by Frumple »
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smjjames

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Yeah, that's fair. I suppose all he really succeeded at was (probably) lugging a lot of suitcases into his hotel room without drawing scrutiny.

That's essentially my point though, that he had plans in place that did not pan out after he was pinpointed.

EDIT: Though it is odd that he took his life before the police even arrived, according to the W-post article. Did he know they had found him somehow?

Check this out

It's not yet clear on the timing of when he killed himself, he might have heard them outside the room and killed himself then, and they had to use an explosive to enter the place. In an earlier entry in the Guardian liveblog, he shot through a doorway and hit a hotel security guard at some point. Piecing together the timeline of everything will take time and investigation, we just need to let the forensics do their jobs.
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