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[vishdafish]

OSG: Why so insistent on no lynch even though it will not benefit town? Its what a scum would do to survive.

[hector13]

roo is being replaced due to inactivity.

[origamiscienceguy]

OSG: Why so insistent on no lynch even though it will not benefit town? Its what a scum would do to survive.

Because I think it will benefit town. If we proceed normally, we get a maximum of 2 power role usages, and 3 lynches. The other way, we get a maximum of 4 power role usages, and 1 lynch.

[vishdafish]

OSG I disagree. Some people are more likely to be scum than others. Me and roo (or the person who will replace roo) are pretty unlikely to be scum. That leaves 5 people. Out of 5 people, you, snow dwarf or juicebox are 70% scum. Lynch and two power roles will have 70% chance of winning on next turn.

[juicebox]

Wait what? How are we 70% scum? The way it looks now, Kilakan, KJP, Snow Dwarf, OSG and I have an equal chance of being scum.

[vishdafish]

Kilakan is gone? KJP dosent seem scummy. Not sure about Tiruin. So you 3 have 70% chance of scum.

[origamiscienceguy]

Kilakan is gone? KJP dosent seem scummy. Not sure about Tiruin. So you 3 have 70% chance of scum.

That's not how statistics works...

The way I see it, everybody here has an equal chance of being scum, and an equal chance of being the power role(s).

There is also a chance that we have two power roles, which would definately benefit more from 4 uses rather than 3 lynches.

[vishdafish]

Yes, but this is not statistics. Not everyone has an equal chance of being scum. If we lynched based on RNGs, mafia would win a lot of the time.

[juicebox]

First off, yes we all have an equal chance of being scum. As people are lynched, NKed and confirmed the chances change but all the beginning we all have an equal chance of being scum. That being said, those chances are usually too low to base a lynch off of, which is why we don't lynch based off of RNG.

Now I would like to move away from the statistical talk for now as it doesn't really help us find scum.

So vish, is there any actual case that you have against any of us? (No, lurking in and of itself doesn't constitute a case for someone being scum.)

OSG, do you have any reads? If so, can you please share them?

[Teneb]

{Ok, wow, I should've posted earlier, but Stuff happened. Anyway

Vish:

OSG: Why so insistent on no lynch even though it will not benefit town? Its what a scum would do to survive.

This is an excellent question. Or it would be if you ever followed on it. You didn't. You didn't vote or keep pressing. Instead you went on this weird tangent  about statistics.

Mind you, statistics can help, but you have to back them up. Saying "oh, there is a X% chance of you being scum" mean jack shit. And if you think that these people are so likely to be scum... why aren't you voting them?

Now... onto the talk about fakeclaiming and not nk'ing I promised.

First, not killing: it throws people off. It really does. In a MYLO situation, it forces town to take the initiative instead of the other way around. In most games, scum is proactive and town is reactive. Inverting that can be a massive advantage. It's how I won King of Mafia, even.

I am not saying you shouldn't NK ever, but most scum I've seen will NK every single night without a pause to think if doing that actually helps them win.

As for fakeclaims, I'm going to use an example from another BM I IC'd on, and where Tiruin was Scum IC. BM XL. At the last day, it was down to 4 players, 3 town and 1 scum (me). On the previous night, I didn't NK, and as soon as the day started I claimed to be the doctor (not present in BMs anymore) and to have protected Shinigami_King. borno, the real doctor, immediately counter-claimed, but I managed to convince both SK and Lenglon that I was the "real" doctor somehow.

BM XL is also an extremely good case to not look too hard into meta. borno made a great case on me in that last day, but people didn't listen to him because of his scummy meta. Meanwhile, I was bullshitting it as hard as I could and still looked like a damn hero. Fakeclaiming is risky, but when it works it works great. The key is to have a full, comprehensive list of your "actions", to look like a victim once the real version of whatever you are faking shows up, and to immediately go for the throat of anyone who actively tries to discredit your claim.}

[vishdafish]

Ok, was typing a reply earlier, but my ipad died

@Teneb Thanks for the advice. I thought I already voted OSG, 'cause I voted roo a few pages back, and assumed the vote carried on.

@Juicebox Lurking dosent mean you are definitely scum, but it sure is scummy behaviour. Scum arent gonna make it obvious, so I think it is fair to call you out on lurking.

@OSG Power role usage is good and all, but no lynch to just power role? Sounds pretty stupid to me. There is 2/3 chance there is only 1 power role, so isnt it better to lynch and use power role?

[hector13]

The vote did carry over. You were voting kilakan previously, OSG replaced them.

Votes haven't changed much this day, and it's still a no lynch as things stand.

It pains me that I've posted the most on D2

[origamiscienceguy]

@OSG Power role usage is good and all, but no lynch to just power role? Sounds pretty stupid to me. There is 2/3 chance there is only 1 power role, so isnt it better to lynch and use power role?

We either get 2 power roles and 3 lynches, or 4 power roles and one lynch. So equal in numbers, but if we have two power roles, then it is definitely better.

[Kilojoule Proton]

The internet's back! I feel alive!

@ KJP Who are you most suspicious of at this point and why?

vishdafish: Has produced insightful reads, but emphasizing relations over numbers can be a sign of scum by my slightly WIFOM-esque reasoning.
juicebox: Numbers all the way! Same basic read as vishdafish but switch numbers and relations around, hence the WIFOM-esqueness.
kilakan->origamiscienceguy: Reasoning behind voting no lynch seems sound enough to me, but I can't help but feel it's better to perform a well-thought-out lynch in a random scum/roles situation. Potential role?
Tiruin: Not quite enough activity to vote one way or the other.

snow dwarf: On the way out, so no clue. Probably no role? There should be enough peer pressure not to drop out for roles lightly, I think.
roo: Either a great inquisitor or a backstabbing scum. Apparently had a colorful history that I couldn't read over the weekend.

Speaking of,

vishdafish, care to respond to OSG? Power roles are awfully powerful, we haven't lost any yet, and there's only one scum left!

[vishdafish]

@KJP Voting me because I focus on numbers is kinda stupid. The main reason I have been so active/inquisitive is because I thought it was fairly obvious that I wasnt scum. I voted TBF at the start- if I was scum, I would have lynched roo or someone else. I dont know what you intend to achieve with your vote. Trying to put me under pressure or something? Also, if I was really scum, do you think I would be making so many posts?

@OSG I dont understand how your plan will work quicker than lynch. If town lynches you today, and the power roles can investigate whoever they find suspicious, it will be faster. Also, by talking about power roles so much, could you be trying to make someone claim, so you can NK them?