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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1420475 times)

smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9435 on: November 03, 2016, 01:11:08 pm »

There likely isn't any one single factor and could just be a sign of the general election, as crazy as it is, turning out to be a lot like a normally competitive election.
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Rolepgeek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9436 on: November 03, 2016, 01:16:36 pm »

I know you didn't, I'm just annoyed at general sentiments that I've seen that seem to fall along those lines. When I ramble, usually at some point it stops being directed at anyone in particular and becomes a general statement about thing. >.>

http://www.nber.org/papers/w22452
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999399000085

Birth rate follows economic growth. Economic growth follows age distribution. Virtuous or vicious cycle, however you want to think of it, but the fact remains. Japan would probably have grown more if it didn't have an aging population. Problem, of course, is that Japan's also rather overcrowded and can't really let in immigrants even as a short-term solution. US does have significantly more land to fit people in. My point is that it's not really an effective long-term solution, and it kinda misses the point of helping the people who are already here, in the end. Which, yes, is the purpose of a country, as far as I'm aware. People who are here, their children, and so on. I'm not specifically against immigration, but it appears to me to be an overly simplistic solution. There's a lack of people, so just add more, hope they all mix. :/
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PanH

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9437 on: November 03, 2016, 01:26:10 pm »

The aging population is part of a bigger problem, since current population estimate indicate that there'll be something like 10m Japanese by 2100. Aging population is a symptom of a lower birth rate, and that's a long term problem.

Also, I think that Japan is less open to immigrants more due to its 'racism' than due to lack of space, especially considering the current population trends.

On the whole, I'm curious as to what we could get of the Malthus point of view, and how France followed the Malthusian point of view in the early century.
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Telgin

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9438 on: November 03, 2016, 01:45:50 pm »

Is there any actual explanation as to why Clinton seems to be losing votes every day to Trump at an alarming pace? It feels like I'm missing some part of the picture here, because the other, pro-Democrat, forum, is either keeping silent on that issue, or saying that "fivethirtyeight wants a horse race", which is pretty interesting since I remember them praising 538 for its accuracy when it was predicting Trump having no path to victory as all a few months ago...

I can't honestly believe that this many people have changed their minds this late into the game, so my guess is that it's related to silent voters.  Are the projections influenced or adjusted by early voting?  Polling really might not have accurately represented people's opinions.

The timing of the shift in voting did coincide a little too closely to the FBI's announcement, but I really can't believe we'd have that many undecided voters waiting until the last week to make up their minds.
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Sergarr

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9439 on: November 03, 2016, 01:50:26 pm »

Is there any actual explanation as to why Clinton seems to be losing votes every day to Trump at an alarming pace? It feels like I'm missing some part of the picture here, because the other, pro-Democrat, forum, is either keeping silent on that issue, or saying that "fivethirtyeight wants a horse race", which is pretty interesting since I remember them praising 538 for its accuracy when it was predicting Trump having no path to victory as all a few months ago...

I can't honestly believe that this many people have changed their minds this late into the game, so my guess is that it's related to silent voters.  Are the projections influenced or adjusted by early voting?  Polling really might not have accurately represented people's opinions.

The timing of the shift in voting did coincide a little too closely to the FBI's announcement, but I really can't believe we'd have that many undecided voters waiting until the last week to make up their minds.
We already have the ungodly huge amount of third-party voters this year, many of whom apparently see no distinction between Clinton and Trump presidency, so who knows.
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smirk

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9440 on: November 03, 2016, 02:01:57 pm »

the election is immanent.
In a manner of speaking, the election is indeed within all of us, like a collective fever dream, but I think you meant imminent =P

Now, if only Bernie were the Dem nominee, we could give a serious go to immanentizing the eschaton...

Is there any actual explanation as to why Clinton seems to be losing votes every day to Trump at an alarming pace? It feels like I'm missing some part of the picture here, because the other, pro-Democrat, forum, is either keeping silent on that issue, or saying that "fivethirtyeight wants a horse race", which is pretty interesting since I remember them praising 538 for its accuracy when it was predicting Trump having no path to victory as all a few months ago...
Elections tend to tighten up towards the end in any case, so it's pretty unsurprising. Undecideds and some third-partiers finally head for either of the two main camps, base voters fall in line, etc. It's not going to make much of a difference. Now that mainiac isn't here to get mad at me for linking to the Princeton Election Consortium, you might want to go over there and read through some of his articles on how - in spite of or perhaps because of all the drama - this has been a very stable race from the beginning.
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PTTG??

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9441 on: November 03, 2016, 03:18:38 pm »

What I don't get is "Hillary is an average politician" is somehow such a serious complaint when put next to "Trump is an especially corrupt businessman," and "Trump is earnestly nationalist," and "Trump is a disgusting letch," and "Trump is conversationally inept," and "Trump is a serial sexual molester."

It's hard not to blame a double standard when people say "both sides are bad."
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misko27

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9442 on: November 03, 2016, 03:23:58 pm »

It's interesting. The "fundamentals" as I've heard them called were calling this as a close race two full years ago. Decent but not strong economic growth, America doing poorly abroad but in no immediate crisis, two-term incumbent stepping down but in a Congress ruled by the opposition, etc.

The personality and campaign race has been anything but. When election day rolls around we'll see which were correct. The issue is that if its a close result, it can be either because of the fundamentals or because of a relative tie in the personality/campaign way. If it's lopsided, it's a clear and obvious win for those who argue that campaigns and candidates matter, to the point that they can eclipse economics and statistics. Interesting from a political science PoV, certainly.
The timing of the shift in voting did coincide a little too closely to the FBI's announcement, but I really can't believe we'd have that many undecided voters waiting until the last week to make up their minds.
It's worth reimagining "undecided" for a minute.

When you hear "undecided", it implies either the low-info voter, or the hardcore neutral. But it can be larger than that, though. Consider, for example, that Trump is doing historically poor with Republican voters, winning only 78% ish of the vote consistently. In an era when winning 95% is standard, that's very bad. But what happens to that missing 17%? They don't disappear you know. They get stuck; unwilling to support Trump or just too sick of him to commit. but opposed to Clinton for ideological or partisan reasons.  These are the sorts of voters who are on the edge; they aren't necessarily deciding upon both, they might merely be waiting to see whether their disgust of Clinton makes them vote or disgust of Trump stops them, or deciding whether to vote Johnson or Trump.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9443 on: November 03, 2016, 03:27:08 pm »

What do you mean 'conversationally inept'? That seems more like something you'd apply to George W Bush, not Trump.
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9444 on: November 03, 2016, 03:27:50 pm »

What doesn't help Clinton is she... and it is hard to explain it...

Gets hurt by Trump controversy.

Anything wrong about him, somehow... applies to her somehow.

The more unlikable he becomes... The more unlikable Hilary Clinton becomes.

What do you mean 'conversationally inept'? That seems more like something you'd apply to George W Bush, not Trump.

The fact that he never lets you speak :P
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Dozebôm Lolumzalìs

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9445 on: November 03, 2016, 03:30:54 pm »



This is a hoax, a joke, a fake quote. The sad thing is, I can usually tell between parody and reality. This election I cannot even.

On Benghazi: What the fuck? She was SoS while an attack happened on an embassy, and there was a threat beforehand.

1. She was not in charge of checking every single threat on every single embassy - she trusted her advisorpeople.
2. The advisorpeople are not to blame, either - they made a decent, educated guess as to whether they should increase security, and they guessed wrong.
3. Sometimes terrorism just happens. Are we going to blame 9/11 on Bush?
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9446 on: November 03, 2016, 03:34:20 pm »

But Bush created 9/11 via magic... (because no Conspiracy theory has ever tried to work out how 9/11 could be faked without resorting to magic or contrivances equal to magic)
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Dozebôm Lolumzalìs

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9447 on: November 03, 2016, 03:37:19 pm »

So this happened, and...

Quote
Crowd after the MSM photoshops an additional 500 or so fake supporters. And you don’t think the election is rigged???

Ya, totally. Because some idiot on the Internet photoshopping a picture of a rally is comparable to, and is just as easy as, election fraud.

« Last Edit: November 03, 2016, 03:39:17 pm by Dozebôm Lolumzalìs »
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Frumple

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9448 on: November 03, 2016, 03:46:23 pm »

On Benghazi: What the fuck? She was SoS while an attack happened on an embassy, and there was a threat beforehand.

1. She was not in charge of checking every single threat on every single embassy - she trusted her advisorpeople.
2. The advisorpeople are not to blame, either - they made a decent, educated guess as to whether they should increase security, and they guessed wrong.
3. Sometimes terrorism just happens. Are we going to blame 9/11 on Bush?
Don't forget 4. Republican controlled congress throttling the embassy security budget (among lots of other stuff, of course). That's one of the most "fun" bits of things to find out about the whole benghazi shithill. It's kinda' funny how we never seemed to hear much about that.

... mind you, from what we know at this point even if there hadn't been a political party trying to sabotage the government by starvation, the cost of actually defending our embassies to the point of any particular one being able to fight off stuff like what happened there would be ruinous, but still.
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Starver

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9449 on: November 03, 2016, 03:49:42 pm »

What do you mean 'conversationally inept'? That seems more like something you'd apply to George W Bush, not Trump.
Random cut from debate transcript (when he was appealing to everyone, not just his whooping fanbase):
Quote from: Trump
As far as my tax returns, you do not earn that much from tax returns. That I can tell you. You learn a lot from financial disclosure. And you should go down and take a look at that. The other thing - I am incredibly the underleveraged. The report that six hundred feet fifty -- which by the way, a lot of friends of mine that know my business say boy that's really not a lot of money. That's not a lot of money relative to what I had. The big buildings that were in question they said in the same report, which actually wasn’t even a bad story, to be honest with you -- but the buildings are worth 3.9 billion dollars. And the six hundred fifty is not even on that. But it is not six hundred fifty. It is much less than that. But I could give you a list of banks. If that would help you I would give you list the banks. These are very fine institutions, very fine banks. I could do that very quickly. I am very underleveraged. I have a great company. I have it tremendous income. And the reason I say it is not a braggadocios way. It’s because it is about time that this country had somebody running it that has an idea about money.
They're generous with the punctuation (and I can see an obvious transcript error) but it's just a stream of consciousness. That's at least followable, in its sub-sub-clausality, but that's just where the scrolling randomly stopped for me and by far not the worst case I could deliberately highlight.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2016, 03:52:15 pm by Starver »
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