The polls will lose?
No, one should always assume they will lose
What I think you mean is that "whatever the polls say, they are wrong", which is like a more complicated way of saying "when I roll this dice it will never land on the six", and thus just as wrong.
Oh I get it, there's a confusion with what I said
Sorry about that
I'm referring to how everyone was making plans on what to do on the event of Leave's defeat, on what to do on the event of Trump's defeat, because they were assuming based off of all the scientific polls that their absurdly high victory chances signaled guaranteed victory. Thus the Leave campaign fought like a cornered animal whilst the Remain campaign was complacent & arrogant, I do not know enough about the American campaigns to talk otherwise but I hear the Republicans were high energy whilst the Democrats were killing their own high energy millennials... Which is an odd strategy, but moving on - one should always assume they're losing. Polls are bullshit, one side uses them to inflate the perception vs actual popularity of their views whilst the other uses them to lull their opponents into arrogant complacency.
Thus LW recommends that one should always assume they are the only person in the world who holds those beliefs, never taking for granted that the rest of the world agrees with you. I took a look at prediction maps for Remain made by Remain for example, forecasting a yellow Britain with only Wales, Northern Ireland and Southwestern England voting to Leave, compared with the reality where even Labour strongholds voted Leave. I took a look at the EC USA map predictions made by Democrats forecasting a sea of blue, contrast with the reality where all but one swing state bled red. I think liberal populations in this century are especially hurt by this informational bubble, because of how their populations are concentrated in dense urban & academic centres. They meet millions everyday who share the same views and same beliefs, never encountering anyone who says anything to the contrary. Couple with the general partitioning of informational communities based off of political belief, this creates a serious shitfest of a political bubble for them. As a consequence they don't understand how few people support them and they also don't know how their opponents think, which in turn can cause alienation as urban centres also act as the conduits for most power - media, financial, political and technological. It would be tough to fix this, as it is not really something you can change, nor do people want to change
A great piece on this from a remainerConservatives in the UK don't fall afoul of this as much because they have to understand, learn and work in the liberal cities of the world if they are to get anywhere in life, so they understand their opponents' strategies and thinking. They also understand their own weaknesses, as they see how many do not support their views. And when it comes to online stuff, maybe not basic bitch conservatives, but certainly the more esoteric members are much more averse to informational bubbles - you'll see edgelords on 4chan go to tumblr and reddit, but never the other way around.
IRL I occasionally bring this up in London to my liberal mates and they're not all that interested in these principles, of self-knowledge, self-judgement and learning from your opponents. Basically because they find them boring, disagreeable or bigoted, on the contrary if you look at some of the people in Leave - they were collecting information from people, not polls, for decades. I also find it fun to learn from the free market of ideas personally :>
Also kill snobbery wherever it lies. Arrogance kills. My one observation made clear is that the Tory party has been too long dominated by the smug, and it is only through sheer misfortune that their opponents managed to actually outsmug them, and thank God that May is reversing the smugness. It is rather worrying seeing the liberal reaction to these two defeats, that of Brexit and Trump. Their reaction seems not to have been one of learning, but one of a backlash and desire to be as pure progressive as possible, refusing any compromise whatsoever.
I will add this as I do find it undesirable that the liberal world still wants to be useless and uncompetitive, as in the democratic world where the ruling parties have no opposition, corruption and complacency is abound - and if Labour doesn't unfuck itself in mind, party and soul, then I suspect after May's retirement things will go downhill. You can't have a functioning democratic country if you're content with a large portion of it being dysfunctional lol, and with no oversight, what is functional becomes dysfunctional
My theory is that perhaps we're moving into a post-status quo world.
I was reading the NewStatesman the other day and this was really compelling for me:
The world is changing in ways the British left cannot comprehend.A lesson of the past few days is the danger of groupthink. Along with the major international institutions, the assembled might of establishment opinion – in the CBI and TUC, massed legions of economists and a partisan Bank of England – was confident that the existing order here and in Europe would be preserved by promises of unspecified reforms. Until around 2am on the morning of Friday 24 June, the bookies and currency traders followed the playbook that had been given them by the authorities and the pollsters. Then, in a succession of events of a kind that is becoming increasingly common, the script was abruptly torn up. A clear majority of voters had reached to the heart of the situation. Realising that the promises of European reform that had been made were empty, they opted for a sharp shift in direction. The consequences can already be observed: rapid political change in Britain and an accelerating process of unravelling in the European Union. The worldwide impact on markets and geopolitics will be long-lasting and profound.
I remember talking in one of the Yurop politics threads, someone thought all my shitposts were of the death of the world, I remember replying how my guesses were not the death of the world, they were the death of the liberal world. Cold war is long over and the liberal world has no desire to change with the times :[
Speaking for the Brexiteers, we're really not that worried about it mate.
Maybe you're cocksure, but I see a lot of worries. Depends on why the person wanted Brexit. It's not so much a broad church as various competing chapels.
The D20 can always roll a 1
Caution is always warranted, and I think May's public statement of confidence does not stand up to reality, the possibility of the High Court ruling in favour of the Commons is possible, and the likelihood that all the MPs professing support for her are lying to her is very likely. Simply put it is better to be in a situation where MPs can't turn back on their word than be in a situation where they can, because they probably will when the stakes are this high
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