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[smjjames]

I was planning on posting the results when it was over.

I predict the Sweden Democrats becoming the weighmasters of the new government, resulting in a right-wing coalition government between the four parties thay have worked together since the last rwo decades (calling themselves the Alliance) that while they nominally refuse to let SD be a part of it still require SD's blessing to not fall. Then, somewhere down the line, SD will attempt to use that power to pull the rug out from under the coalition and cause a crisis of government with the goal of breaking up the Alliance and then being able to work more closely with the less staunchly neo-liberal parties (which is all parties except the falsely named Centerpartiet, which is the in my opinion furthest right wing (but not the most conservative) lparty in Sweden). Next election after this will see SD grow to second biggest party in the riksdag.

Unless maybe there's a pushback from the Left, as it is here in the US. Then again, the political dynamics are completely different even though they share many of the same base reasons for the rise of populism.

The attackers screamed at terrified Emilia Orpana calling her a whore and a racist as she campaigned in Nynäshamn, 35 miles south of Stockholm.

antifa here to save you from pregnant ladies

When it became clear Ms Orpana was being threatened, members of the other parties present at the polling station came running to help out.

Ms Orpana said: “I feel grateful to my colleagues from the other parties for running over to help.

“It was a fine democratic act. They showed that any act of violence is not acceptable no matter whom you’re voting for.”

Good job Sweden

And some guy called another woman, who is from the 'Moderate' party, a 'fascist'. Clearly using the word wrong.

[Loud Whispers]

Everything I don't like is fascism tbh

[scriver]

I was planning on posting the results when it was over.

I predict the Sweden Democrats becoming the weighmasters of the new government, resulting in a right-wing coalition government between the four parties thay have worked together since the last rwo decades (calling themselves the Alliance) that while they nominally refuse to let SD be a part of it still require SD's blessing to not fall. Then, somewhere down the line, SD will attempt to use that power to pull the rug out from under the coalition and cause a crisis of government with the goal of breaking up the Alliance and then being able to work more closely with the less staunchly neo-liberal parties (which is all parties except the falsely named Centerpartiet, which is the in my opinion furthest right wing (but not the most conservative) lparty in Sweden). Next election after this will see SD grow to second biggest party in the riksdag.

Unless maybe there's a pushback from the Left, as it is here in the US. Then again, the political dynamics are completely different even though they share many of the same base reasons for the rise of populism.

Unlikely to happen, the growth of SD is a steady trend by now (they're sucking up voters from both the left and the right), and I can't see a situation that would change that except becoming a self-majority government and then being horrible at it. And they don't have enough support to do that by far.

The biggest "left-wing" party is the Social Democrats (S), and they are dwindling because social democratism is dead and they have abandoned it for neoliberalism. There's not going to be any push for left-wing opinions from them, more likely they'll continue to leak disappointed voters to Vänsterpartiet (the Left Party) and SD.

And some guy called another woman, who is from the 'Moderate' party, a 'fascist'. Clearly using the word wrong.

The Moderates are not moderates.

But they're certainly not fascists either, by far. They're staunch mainline (Swedish mainline) rightwingers, a bit liberal and a bit conservative. Like with the Centre Party, which are nowhere near the centre these days, and the Social Democrats, which are liberals these days, their names are left-overs from a time long gone by.

Calling them fascists is a long-honed tradition, though. Also a remainder from better days.

Everything I don't like is fascism tbh

That sounds like fascism

[smjjames]

The two main blocks are deadlocked for sure. Also, the Green party is on the verge of not getting into Parliament (or rather, the Riksdag) since apparently theres a rule that a party needs at minimum 4% in order to get positions in the proportional system.

[scriver]

Was just about to link this: With less than 1000 districts to go, this is the result so far, except in Swedish. Also with a interactive map if you scroll down (but remember, Americans, blue is right and red is left here ).

[scriver]

So far my predictions seem correct. White exact result will not be known until Wednesday because of postal and early votes being delayed (and also customary correction checks of all votrs), so far it looks like the left and right-minus-SD is both equalling out at ~40%, and SD becoming the goverment-maker with their 17%.

Only other way is if either of the two largest parties from each wing, the Social Democrats and the Moderates, join up with the other wing. The Moderates refuses to work with the left as long as Vänsterpartiet (Left Party) is part of the goal, and Vänsterpartiet holds 8% the left vote. So what it comes down to is whether the Social Democrats will abandon all pretentious of still being left-wing and join up with their neo-liberal comerades-in-thought on the right or not (Miljöpartiet, the Environment Party, who while they are the most liberally inclined of the "left", are more or less irrelevant because of their meagre 4.5%). Either way, SD stands only to gain because if the Social Democrats refuses to join with the right, SD becomes the only way to secure government, but if S forms a government with any of the right-wing parties then SD will see another wave of disappointed social democrat voters join them.

And if you don't think the Social Democrats stands to loose to SD, well, they're certainly feeling threatened enough over the prospect to let the union whip fly (Google translation of article here).

[Reelya]

If the Centre party shifts to the left alliance then they'd have just enough votes to form government, so that's another scenario which excludes SD.

[scriver]

The Centre Party is the most right wing party in the riksdag, full of extremist neo-liberal zealots, and it'll be a far fetch before I see them working with the Left. Which would leave them 28.6÷8.4+4.3=41.3% (including the Environment Party), so they'd still need the Moderates on their side (which would make it the S-joins-the-right scenario i outlined above).

[hector13]

What happens if a majority isn’t formed? Minority government or new polls?

[scriver]

Minority governments are legally possible (if a majority of parliament can agree on voting it in, and it can then be dismantled if it looses that support) but not practically feasible in the current political climate, as it would hinge on the support of either SD or the largest party across the isle (S or M). SD is populist to the bone and has outright said that they will break a government if they don't to influence things (in particular, immigracy politics). I still think the right-wing coalition ruling with the support of SD is the way this will turn out, but I certainly understand why anyone would be leery of basing their rule on the support of a party that has the stance of "lol we're totally going to stab this government in the back you if it suits us lol".

As for M joining the left side (S+MP+M, without the Left Party), well, when the current government formed a minority government in 2014, the right-wing collaboration, "the Alliance" (their choice of name) agreed that they would concede and not threaten the gov in order to keep SD frmbeing the weighmaster (they called the agreement called the "December Agreement"). They then regretted that dearly and the internal disagreement over this issue and the feeling of not being able to criticise the government nearly broke "the Alliance" apart, leaving them not forming a combined coalition platform in this election, but instead running as four separate-but-with-related-interests-parties again. Since "the Alliance" has been widely credited for being able to break the iron grip the Social Democrats have had on the rule for like 50-80 years or so, the breakdown of it was harshly criticised and was announced being the reason why the right would lose this election even before the election season began, especially from the inside of the Moderates (as they are the power party of the Alliance and basically decided everything, so the failure of the Alliance felt basically like them losing power). So we're at the point where any assent to the lefties will be seen in very bad light on the right, even if it is more of a compromise than the concession the December Agreement was. As such it is unlikely they will support a left-wing government.

As for S, I don't think them supporting a right-wing minority government is as unfeasible - but it would likely have the same effects on their voter support as if they outright joined a right-wing government. Ie, SD walks away with a whole chunk of their voters.

[Loud Whispers]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Some useful data regarding the population crisis of Europe

[Rowanas]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Some useful data regarding the population crisis of Europe

That gave me a solid little chuckle there. Glad my boss isn't in the office.

[da_nang]

And lo, the EU sends us back into the Dark Ages.

Thank you, EU, for cementing EU-skepticism in my mind, you vile cretins.

[scriver]

No it's okay the French knows better

[Loud Whispers]

So begins the age of gorilla memefare