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[hector13]

How do we know the cult leader is investigation-immune?

Chromatic Wasp has been lynched! He was Dr. Jekyll!
You are town. You win when all anti-town factions are dead.
Night: Examine a sample from target player for cellular degeneration to discover whether they have been converted or not. Unfortunately, this won't be much help in finding the Clone Lord himself.

All that says is they won't have shown up with that particular PR. It's a moot point, regardless; if anyone can, they won't (and shouldn't) say.

[Megggas]

All that says is they won't have shown up with that particular PR. It's a moot point, regardless; if anyone can, they won't (and shouldn't) say.

That's true.  I just didn't think it was likely that there was another cop-like role.

Of course, none of the power roles should claim and speak up to prove my conclusions right or wrong unless they've identified the cult leader or discovered some other crucial tidbit of information.

[fillipk]

...
let's hope not. That would be a tad bit overpowered.
~~~
As to the night kill itself- I envision 3 main possibilities:
Town vigilante kill
Third party or scum kill
Cult kill

The town vigilante kill is preferable for us above the other two options, for obvious reasons.
If it wasn't a vigilante kill, what I judge to be second most likely is some sort of third party or scum(y'know, mafia?).
The third and likely least probable is the option that the cult themselves have a kill.

You can probably imagine why it would be overpowered for the cult to have a kill.
~~~
For a little paranoia fuel:
There is nothing Deus Asmoth has told us that makes it not possible for a conventional mafia to also be part of this game. I'm going to hope that's not the case, though.
~~~
And one more thing before I read over day one again:

I JUST WANTED TO MAKE A POT OF COFFEE, DANGIT! Is that really too much to ask?

Apparently yes.  What stopped you from making your coffee anyway.

@Saber: I don't think your scum, newbie town maybe but not scum.  You are laser focused on me which I can see but honestly it's a bit misguided.  Sorry all, I'll have a bigger post later don't want to active lurk here.

[Megggas]

SaberToothTiger:

No list of reasons why did you vote me, which you promised before?
Here, let me remind you.

We should propose our final cases soon.  Late tonight, I'll return with my full list of reasons why I'm voting SaberToothTiger, unless he says or does something to change my mind.

I am slightly dissapointed. You seemed to have such a reliable amount of offences comitted by me that I hoped I would get the opportunity to laugh at respond to them, yet now that the group mood changed away from me you dropped it. Why?

At the time I made that post, Day 1 was going to end on Wednesday.  I was busy in rl and only had 1 more opportunity to post from a computer (On Tuesday night) before Day 1 ended, which was time I was going to use to type up my case against you.  After the extension, I had more time available, so I took a closer look at the other players and noticed Chromatic Wasps' suspicious behavior.  I then spent most of my remaining time available for Day 1 to solidify my case against him.  Like I said in my post here, you didn't lash out at me while my vote was on you, which is what I was expecting you to do if you were a scared newbie cult leader.  As a result, I was more open to the idea of you just being newbie town.

Since you still want to know, here's my reasoning as to why you could be the cult leader:

All your early posts make you seem like a newbie cult leader who is really concerned about avoiding being lynched and wants to discourage us from talking to you.  For example, your first post of Day 1 has all kinds of problems.  Here it is with all the questions edited in:

SaberToothTiger:  You said you were a newbie to mafia.  This is your first game, right?  Why did you decide to play?

Megggas: I decided to start playing mafia because it might be fun and enlightening. Why did you? Why are you trying to put attention onto me?

SabreTooth Tiger: If you had a one-shot investigate, would you use it night 1?

TheDarkStar: You misspelled my name. I am greatly offended and don't trust you anymore.

SaberToothTiger: If you received a message from the mod, supposedly a message sent from a player(your choice) to you via a special ability, in which that player claimed to be town, would you be more or less suspicious of that player?

FallacyOfUrist: It would all depend on the player's previous actions. And why would he send me that message out of all other possible recipients?

Problems:
1.  I had asked every player a question, but you interpreted my question to you as an attempt to put attention onto you, which you considered a bad thing.
2.  You also refused to answer TheDarkStar's question without giving a real reason for it.
3.  All your answers were short or dodgy, as if you didn't want to provide us with much information about you.

Your following posts show this same emphasis on self-preservation and discouraging attackers.
Post 2 & 3:  You admit that you are paranoid and very much don't want to die on Day 1.
Post 4: Fillipk votes for you for an unclear reason, so you attack him and accuse him of being cult.  You don't vote for him at this point and your only question to him is an accusatory one.

It's soon after this that I conclude that you are acting like a newbie cult leader who's especially concerned about his survival.  I watch to see how you respond to my vote for you.    I expect the increased pressure from my vote would cause you to snap and say something even more incriminating.

Post 5 & 6:  You claim that you are deliberately playing defensively and waiting for others to make mistakes.  You also claim that you did interrogate fillipk, which was apparently just the question "Why are you voting to lynch somebody without a real reason?".  It's suspicious that you want to establish your play style as defensive, but you don't lash out at me like I expect.

I keep my vote on you a bit longer just in case, but you don't say anything else before it's time for me to present my final case of the Day.  By that time, I decided to switch to the case against CW.
I haven't yet taken a close look at your posts past that point or thoroughly examined your on-again off-again case against fillipk thoroughly.  I'll do so later when I'm well-rested and have time.

[flabort]

What stopped you from making your coffee anyway.

There's no power on the space-ship. Until we can get order restored and the Clone Lord gotten rid of, none of us are having coffee. Didn't you read the flavor text from the day 1 extension?

My activity will probably be relatively low today and this weekend because I'll be watching star wars 6 or 7 times.

I expect something big come Monday, then.


OSG It seems likely to me that you could not have performed the kill - And if you were the clone lord, this means you couldn't have converted anyone last night. So, silly question: Were you converted last night?

FillipK So why DID you use my post as evidence to support your flavor-analysis theory? Also, how do you know Saber is still misguided town and hasn't been converted overnight?

SaberToothTiger You say lynching someone for not lynching someone is lousy as hell. But the vote and lynch is the town's most powerful weapon: to not use it to it's full potential is scummy. As far as questions today goes, could you please pose some questions to someone or arguments towards lynching someone/anyone? I haven't seen any serious scum-hunting from you and I'd like you to try.

Megggas WHY didn't you think there were any more cop-like abilities? Was it just gut instinct, or was it something more?

FallacyofUrist

The third and likely least probable is the option that the cult themselves have a kill.

You can probably imagine why it would be overpowered for the cult to have a kill.

There would have to be some pretty heavy restrictions or counters towards that if that was the case.
I'm looking forward to your analysis of Day 1 through hindsight. Is there anything you would have done differently?

Hector13

Shall wait for OSG's analysis unless something interesting happens in the meantime.

Why did you decide to do this, rather then get a proactive start on scum-hunting? Why aren't you starting the day with your own analysis?

[hector13]

Hector13

Shall wait for OSG's analysis unless something interesting happens in the meantime.

Why did you decide to do this, rather then get a proactive start on scum-hunting? Why aren't you starting the day with your own analysis?

Mostly tiredness, I was expecting a bit of a longer time between the night and day phase to kind of recover my senses...

Anyhow, OSG's view is new, particularly since he's replacing the least active player we had D1.

I know it's not the best way to start, but we do have 5 days to figure stuff out, plus an extension if we need to. It's not that scummy

I will make the quick point that TDS was the second-least active player; we don't gain a great deal knowing he's town, so... maybe an anti-town kill? I've never been a town or third-party killing role (outside of an SK in which I had no idea who I was targeting due to game mechanics) so I've never had to really consider the best targets in that respect.

So a question to flabort mostly, but y'all can weigh in if you think differently:

On N1, would it be beneficial for a town killing-role to target someone who wasn't very active on D1? Would it also be in a third-party killing-role's best interest to target the same person? If not, why?

[Megggas]

Megggas WHY didn't you think there were any more cop-like abilities? Was it just gut instinct, or was it something more?

Mostly gut instinct and an educated guess based on the roles we know about.  We know of the following roles:
1 Cult Leader
1 Cop whose investigation fails on the Cult Leader
1 Serial Killer / Vigilante
1+ Vanilla Townie (My gut says there's more than one)
5- Unknown

On N1, would it be beneficial for a town killing-role to target someone who wasn't very active on D1? Would it also be in a third-party killing-role's best interest to target the same person? If not, why?

If the town killing role doesn't have any significant suspicions against any active players and is worried he might get converted before he can NK, then I can see him taking a gamble on one of the less active players.  In the context of this game, TheDarkStar wasn't totally inactive like tntey, but active enough to convert people in the night if he was the Cult Leader.
For a Serial Killer...it's a little bit more tricky.  I don't know if a SK can even be recruited by the cult.  I've also never played with or as a SK, so I can only make guesses as to who a SK would target.  If he can't be recruited, then I suppose a SK would seek to kill the cult leader & cult members to make sure they don't become a majority that can turn against him and vote for his lynching.

[flabort]

I know it's not the best way to start, but we do have 5 days to figure stuff out, plus an extension if we need to. It's not that scummy

I will make the quick point that TDS was the second-least active player; we don't gain a great deal knowing he's town, so... maybe an anti-town kill? I've never been a town or third-party killing role (outside of an SK in which I had no idea who I was targeting due to game mechanics) so I've never had to really consider the best targets in that respect.

So a question to flabort mostly, but y'all can weigh in if you think differently:

On N1, would it be beneficial for a town killing-role to target someone who wasn't very active on D1? Would it also be in a third-party killing-role's best interest to target the same person? If not, why?

Your opinion is noted.
Maybe when I start my next mafia game, you can submit a role that ensures you have a kill, that way you can (probably) find out what it's like. You're right in that we don't gain much info from his death; we did gain the info that there is a kill out there, we gained the info that TDS was town... Basically what else we learn must come from whether or not we think the kill is town or anti-town; if it's town, we learn that the vig was pretty sure TDS is scum. We'd need to inspect people who thought TDS was scum to identify them. If it's anti-town, we'd need to figure out their motives to figure out who did it.

OK, onto your question. You're thinking this has to do mostly with activity, then, right?
So, it's in town's best interests to hit scum, every time. However, that's not possible. If the vigilante had no better suspects, active lurking is considered a scummy thing to do, and it eliminates a player who didn't have much to contribute; leaving stronger more active scum hunters. It is beneficial but not the best possible move for a town-player to eliminate inactive players.
As for the third party, it depends on the third party. For the traditional killing third party that I can think of first, the Serial Killer, they ultimately need everyone dead. An inactive player would be an easy target, but also an easy lynch later in the game; it would be in their better interests not to kill that player, unless that player was a threat to them. If the third party was, say, a (Cult/Mafia/Town/something-else)-Ally, or something along that line, it might be in their interests, as a safe target that does not hurt their team. Um... there are a wide variety of possible third parties, though, and I can't think of all of them. In general, though, I don't think it would be in their best interest to kill an inactive player JUST because they are an inactive player, but rather for other circumstances.

PPE: and of those known roles, two are dead. One by our hands, one by the hands of your third known one. I would ask your opinion of those unknown roles and how many you'd guess are vanilla, but that would be fishing which we all know is frowned upon. So as to your answer to Hector, what makes you think that an SK is unlikely to be convertible? Why wouldn't a town vigilante be nonconvertible if you think an SK wouldn't be?

[Megggas]

I looked over Day 1's bandwagons and took some notes on it.  There were two bandwagons on SabertoothTiger, one on fillipk, and one on Chromatic Wasp.  I quickly threw together a list of each person who voted & FOSed on these bandwagons and their stated reasons. 

SabertoothTiger #1: (Starts here)
hector13 - Voted because Saber did not want attention (1) *later stated to be a pressure vote & implied by later advice*
Myself - FOS for similar reasons as hector13
Chromatic Wasp - FOS for Saber's self-defensive paranoia
FallacyofUrist - Pressure vote to make Saber answer hector's question (2)
fillipk - random pressure/bandwagon vote with RVS-style question. (3) *fillipk bandwagon starts now* *later stated to be a vote for the purpose of not looking like a liar*
hector13 - Unvote due to fillipk being suspicious (2)
FallacyofUrist - Swaps vote for FOS due to fillipk being suspicious (1)
fillipk - Unvote due to pressure (0)

SabertoothTiger #2: (Starts here)
Myself - Vote due to Saber's over defensiveness and odd lack of voting (1)
fillipk - FOS due to Saber maybe implying he knew about Cult Lord mechanics
Chromatic Wasp - doubtful Vote due to Saber's contradictory passivity & aggression and his lack of responding to questions (2)
flabort - Vote due to being scummiest of reads (3)
Myself - Unvote due to CW being more suspicious (2)


fillipk: (Starts here)
Myself - Vote due to anti-town play and suspected rolefishing (1)
hector13 - Vote for same reasons as myself (2)
Chromatic Wasp - Vote due to fillipk's odd hypothetical description (3)
FallacyofUrist - Pressure Vote for fillipk's poorly thought out theorizing (4)
Myself - Unvote due to thinking fillipk was a power role (3) *Chromatic Wasp wagon starts a few posts later*
Chromatic Wasp - Unvote after admitting fillipk vote was a bandwagon/active-lurk vote (2)
hector13 - Swaps vote for FOS due to CW (1)
flabort - FOS for pressure reasons?
SaberToothTiger - Vote due to fillipk voting for him without good reason and lack of response (2)
SaberToothTiger - Unvote due to fillipk not seeming that scummy (1)

Chromatic Wasp:
hector13 - FOS because CW's reasoning for his fillipk vote was weird and suspicious
hector13 - Vote because of CW's bandwagoning and active lurking (1) *Apparently a pressure vote meant to incite CW to become more active*
fillipk - Vote because of CW's passivity, bandwagoning, and anti-town suggestions (2)
hector13 - Unvote because CW responded (1)
Myself - Vote because of CW's hesistant voting and overall passivity (2)
hector13 - Vote because of CW's bandwagoning, active lurking, & poorly reasoned plans (3)
FallacyofUrist - FOS for similar reasoning as previous voters; not a vote due to fillipk's lack of response

Analysis:
6 of 9 players were voting for someone by Day 1's end.

Myself: Voted on 3 of 4 wagons.  First one on the fillipk wagon and the second SaberToothTiger wagon.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
hector13: Voted on 3 of 4 wagons.  First one on the first SabertoothTiger wagon and the Chromatic Wasp wagon.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
fillipk: Voted on 2 of 4 wagons.  Had a wagon against him.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
FallacyofUrist: Voted on 2 of 4 wagons.  Was the 4th vote on fillipk wagon before it died down.  Was voting for fillipk ay Day's end.
flabort: Voted on 1 of 4 wagons.  Was the 3rd vote on the second SabertoothTiger wagon before I switched wagons.  Was voting for SabertoothTiger by Day's end.  Voted only once during Day 1.
SabertoothTiger: Voted on 1 of 4 wagons.  Had 2 wagons against him.  Voted only once during Day 1.  Was not voting by Day's end.
tntey / OSG : Inactive during Day 1.
TheDarkStar: Dead via NK.
Chromatic Wasp: Had a wagon against him.  Dead via lynching.

If I got some details wrong, feel free to let me know.
PPE:

PPE: and of those known roles, two are dead. One by our hands, one by the hands of your third known one. I would ask your opinion of those unknown roles and how many you'd guess are vanilla, but that would be fishing which we all know is frowned upon. So as to your answer to Hector, what makes you think that an SK is unlikely to be convertible? Why wouldn't a town vigilante be nonconvertible if you think an SK wouldn't be?

Primarily because of what the Serial Killer page on the Mafiascum wiki says.  According to that page, Serial Killers are often given an extra advantage to help survive against 2 other factions.  Even if the SK is unconvertible, the cult might be able to identify him after a failed convert and rally against him to get him lynched the next day, so it wouldn't be too big of an advantage for the SK.
Vigilantes are aligned with the town, so giving them conversion-immunity would make it nearly impossible for the cult to stop the Vig if he claims early enough and the town decides to never lynch him.  Cult would have to gain a majority before they'd be able to stop him.

[Megggas]

EBWOP:  The Chromatic Wasp bandwagon starts here.

[Megggas]

flabort:  I recall you mentioning in our last game together that you had a rather unique player meta: "Flabort is good at looking town when he's scum but is an awful town player".  Do you still live up to this meta?  How well do you think you've been playing during this game?

fillipk:  Which person are you the most suspicious of being the cult leader?

SabertoothTiger:  You said here that you haven't looked very closely at me.  Have you done it yet?  If so, what your read on me?

[flabort]

flabort:  I recall you mentioning in our last game together that you had a rather unique player meta: "Flabort is good at looking town when he's scum but is an awful town player".  Do you still live up to this meta?  How well do you think you've been playing during this game?

Sure do. Always trying to fight that meta and get better at playing, though. Heheh. You've seen Hector13's suspicions of me already, so obviously one half of the meta is in place already; it's up to you to decide, ultimately, and the rest of the players.
As far as how well I've been playing, not great but not bad. I have made some mistakes that I sorely regret, and am having trouble rectifying them before anyone sees them; it's impossible to remove them, given the no edits, but I'm also working on being more active, too, which is my worst thing. Given work just let off for the Christmas season, I should be able to be more active; but this might lead to other mistakes, given my... meta.

Does that answer your question satisfactorily?

[fillipk]

fillipk:  Which person are you the most suspicious of being the cult leader?

Fallacy of Urist.  I'll get back to you with why on Saturday or Sunday later in the afternoon pacific time.

[hector13]

Okay, did a quick read through of CW and SaberTooth's posts.

CW only seems to have voted for fillipk and SaberTooth, so I looked into Saber a bit more...

Saber hasn't done much. I mean, I don't think there's even one scum-hunting question that he asked that wasn't throwing another player's question back in their face. Also, the cheeky little unvote toward the end of the day doesn't sit well with me, particularly when, right at the end of the day, fillipk piques his interest again. Then at the start of D2, he's all "this is proof filipk is scum! ... but I don't think he's scum enough to vote for him" which I also find bothersome.

[Megggas]

flabort:  I recall you mentioning in our last game together that you had a rather unique player meta: "Flabort is good at looking town when he's scum but is an awful town player".  Do you still live up to this meta?  How well do you think you've been playing during this game?

Sure do. Always trying to fight that meta and get better at playing, though. Heheh. You've seen Hector13's suspicions of me already, so obviously one half of the meta is in place already; it's up to you to decide, ultimately, and the rest of the players.
As far as how well I've been playing, not great but not bad. I have made some mistakes that I sorely regret, and am having trouble rectifying them before anyone sees them; it's impossible to remove them, given the no edits, but I'm also working on being more active, too, which is my worst thing. Given work just let off for the Christmas season, I should be able to be more active; but this might lead to other mistakes, given my... meta.

Does that answer your question satisfactorily?

Mostly.  However, now you've piqued my interest with that bolded comment.  What are these mistakes that you regret?

(pfp)