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Author Topic: Two Fold C9++: (3/15) Town Victory: Mutual KO - no replacement after all  (Read 50487 times)

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (12/15) Day 2 begins with blood
« Reply #255 on: August 27, 2015, 06:19:09 pm »

Lucky? No, it was a choice on roo's part. He choose to be incredibly scummy by not defending himself.

I think he underestimated us.
~~~
All things considered, Dampe is in fact slightly suspicious in my eyes as a result of that post. He could have tried a small bit of end-day scum hunting, but instead did nothing but claim he wasn't scum. He's more lurky than active lurky, however, so I'm going after Varee first.
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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

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notquitethere

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (15/15) Day 1 begins!
« Reply #256 on: August 27, 2015, 06:20:53 pm »

Moonlit
Could be many reasons which he didn't mention. Like how no one really seemed suspicious due to things contradicting the evidence. Wasn't convinced Roo was probably gonna be scum, but I guess we got lucky that time.
So the usual thinking is that a town player's primary weapon is their vote. I'm not saying everyone who didn't vote is scum, but it is pretty ineffective play. Do you intend to use your vote this day?
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notquitethere

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (15/15) Day 1 begins!
« Reply #257 on: August 27, 2015, 07:10:46 pm »

Moonlit Shadow
Only if someone seems suspicious enough.
What counts as suspicious enough?
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (12/15) Day 2 begins with blood
« Reply #258 on: August 27, 2015, 09:58:38 pm »

You aren't really talking to me, but I'm going to answer that question anyway...
enough is relative. I personally would vote someone at the level of scumminess roo had yesterday, perhaps somewhat less(for a pressure vote).
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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

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4maskwolf

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Re: Two Fold C9++: (12/15) Day 2 begins with blood
« Reply #259 on: August 28, 2015, 04:40:56 pm »

I'm going to have to Request Replacement, I don't have the time to play in this right now.

fillipk

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Unvote since 4maskwolf needs a replacement

Alright, roo was actually Mafia. This is welcome, but not unexpected. Therefore, those who were defending them are potential suspects. Or possibly those who jumped on the bandwagon last once it was clear roo was going to die. This gives us zero leads as far as the other scum faction goes, but perhaps that's for the best. Wiping out one scum faction basically doubles how much time we have to find the other one since we only have to worry about one nightkill.



I'm also going to point out that Persus13, one of roo's defenders, was the target of the Werewolf nightkill. This implies that, following the reasoning above, the Werewolves are gunning for Mafia instead of Town like their Mafia rivals are. FallacyofUrist, as the sole surviving scum-hunter from the first day, is therefore a suspected Werewolf. I fully expected them and Kilakan to be the first nightkills because of the intensity and usefulness of their scumhunting. But Persus13 gets killed instead, either because they're prioritising Mafia deaths over Town deaths or because FallacyofUrist is one of them. Or maybe both. Mind you, I'm not outright accusing FallacyofUrist right now, but I believe they're currently one of the better suspects, at least until we finish fully analyzing roo's lynch and the events leading up to it for potential other Mafia either bussing or defending him.
This makes sense but the werewolves could just be framing FoU. 
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FallacyofUrist

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So... dangit, my two main suspects(Varee and Dampe) haven't posted today yet. What a pain.
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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

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Varee

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Well look like i got a few thing to answer.
First i voted myslef for 2 reasons, one is i wanted to see how many player is going to react to it(which was 2 on the first day.)
The other thing is i want to know how commited captain is to his rvs.

Well i cant deny i didnt scum hunt yesterday but  as i already say, i dont see much yesterday but rvs and wailing around.  The end of day was rather interesting but i need to go reread it first b4 commenting on it.
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Comrade Shamrock

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Dampe:
Still waiting on a response here.

Varee:
Who's captain?

Arcvasti:
A man/woman/thing of many observations but few questions.

Even as you voted roo you defended him and you did so beforehand.
Thus, the waiting game. In which we wait for him to return.

Thankfully, we have, literally, days of time to wait(if we have to).
Hm. fillipk, any reasons you have of your own for jumping on the bandwagon?
first off give me more then a half an hour to respond I'm not always on.

Second I am jumping on the bandwagon because the moonlit shadow is the other suspicious person and an easier one to lynch, later we can always go back and get Roo when we have more information.

Yeah, if I had to vote now, based on the information I currently possess, I'd lynch The Moonlit Shadow. Roo is kinda suspicious too, but not as overtly or immediately suspicious. Not sure whether ["They" being The Moonlit Shadow, not Roo]their suspiciousness is from being new to Mafia or being a scum. My personal theory is that its both, but I've got little besides gut instinct and dubious "evidence" to support it.
You defended roo when he went silent.

Kilakan: I'm not entirely sure that's a fair assessment. The reason roo voted The Moonlit Shadow was to try to tie up the votecount and not be lynched because they were going to die in a few hours before FallacyofUrist suggested extending the day. That could be a scum move or more simply an "I don't want to die" move. I'm not really disagreeing with you, but using self-preservation as a scumtell strikes me as somewhat silly.

That said:

Unvote fillipk

Honestly, I'm going to invoke Hanlon's Razor here. I find it more likely that they're just new to the game and kinda defensive then that they're actually scum.

Voting roo

If putting roo in a life-or-death situation will evoke more evidence one way or another, I'm applying a pressure vote to them to make them defend themselves again. If their defense is inadequate, I'll keep it on. Plus it feels like a fairer lynch then fillipk or The Moonlit Shadow because they're both new and thus have that as an excuse/justification. roo, however, doesn't have that going for him.


General reminder, we have two opposing scum teams here both intent on annihilating the other. For those scum, scumhunting could become an excellent strategy since they have the advantage of knowing who's on their side and using the town to lynch their competitors both garners them trust and eliminates dangerous opposition. For those of us used to one-scum-faction mafia or for those new to the game, this might be an important concept.
Your reasons here for voting roo are reasonable but they leave you a way out. If his defence was good enough you would pull your vote off you made that very clear. So you could safely pull your vote off of him.

And then there is a subtle attack on kilakan and fallacy at the bottom. It's an attack by implication and while it could very well have been town-sided reminder, it encouraged doubt in our minds about roo's primary accusers.

Also how's your analysis of D1 going?

Arcvasti

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Arcvasti:
A man/woman/thing of many observations but few questions.

Even as you voted roo you defended him and you did so beforehand.
Thus, the waiting game. In which we wait for him to return.

Thankfully, we have, literally, days of time to wait(if we have to).
Hm. fillipk, any reasons you have of your own for jumping on the bandwagon?
first off give me more then a half an hour to respond I'm not always on.

Second I am jumping on the bandwagon because the moonlit shadow is the other suspicious person and an easier one to lynch, later we can always go back and get Roo when we have more information.

Yeah, if I had to vote now, based on the information I currently possess, I'd lynch The Moonlit Shadow. Roo is kinda suspicious too, but not as overtly or immediately suspicious. Not sure whether ["They" being The Moonlit Shadow, not Roo]their suspiciousness is from being new to Mafia or being a scum. My personal theory is that its both, but I've got little besides gut instinct and dubious "evidence" to support it.
You defended roo when he went silent.

I was only really sure of their guilt near the very end when they really dug themselves into a hole by claiming the 1-shot seer[Which, incidentally, is the exact same role Fallacy just claimed.] which seemed precalculated to evoke usefulness but not TOO much usefulness. Before that, I wasn't sure if Roo was leaving scumtells or just using bizarre syntax. Plus I hadn't quite grasped the notion of a pressure vote at that point.
Kilakan: I'm not entirely sure that's a fair assessment. The reason roo voted The Moonlit Shadow was to try to tie up the votecount and not be lynched because they were going to die in a few hours before FallacyofUrist suggested extending the day. That could be a scum move or more simply an "I don't want to die" move. I'm not really disagreeing with you, but using self-preservation as a scumtell strikes me as somewhat silly.

That said:

Unvote fillipk

Honestly, I'm going to invoke Hanlon's Razor here. I find it more likely that they're just new to the game and kinda defensive then that they're actually scum.

Voting roo

If putting roo in a life-or-death situation will evoke more evidence one way or another, I'm applying a pressure vote to them to make them defend themselves again. If their defense is inadequate, I'll keep it on. Plus it feels like a fairer lynch then fillipk or The Moonlit Shadow because they're both new and thus have that as an excuse/justification. roo, however, doesn't have that going for him.


General reminder, we have two opposing scum teams here both intent on annihilating the other. For those scum, scumhunting could become an excellent strategy since they have the advantage of knowing who's on their side and using the town to lynch their competitors both garners them trust and eliminates dangerous opposition. For those of us used to one-scum-faction mafia or for those new to the game, this might be an important concept.
Your reasons here for voting roo are reasonable but they leave you a way out. If his defence was good enough you would pull your vote off you made that very clear. So you could safely pull your vote off of him.

And then there is a subtle attack on kilakan and fallacy at the bottom. It's an attack by implication and while it could very well have been town-sided reminder, it encouraged doubt in our minds about roo's primary accusers.

And yes, I WAS attacking Kilakan/Fallacy. Now that Kilakan's dead, the thread's been moving quite a bit less then before. Between them and Fallacy, they were doing all the scumhunting while assuring all the newbies that scumhunting was a towntell and that they were thus above suspicion. Kilakan has been exonerated post-humously, but I voiced my reinforced suspicions against Fallacy a few posts above this one.

Also how's your analysis of D1 going?

Ah, thank you for reminding me. No one posted in a while and I neglected to get that set up. a mistake I will rectify soonish. Kudos for bumping the thread.
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Varee

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Still havent go back and read the thread.....

@comrade i meant doctor,idk why i typed captian....
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flabort

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Votecount:
TheDarkStar
FallacyofUrist
Teneb
Comrade Shamrock
Varee
Arcvasti - Comrade Shamrock
Dampe
Notquitethere
The Moonlit Shadow -  Notquitethere
Fillipk
4maskwolf (Up for replacement)

Not Voting:
TheDarkStar, FallacyofUrist, Teneb, Varee, Arcvasti, Dampe, The Moonlit Shadow, Fillipk, 4maskwolf (Up for replacement)

Day ends in 22 in game hours (47 hours), Monday 10:00 PM Mountain Time.
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fillipk

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People have made excellent points about why FoU or Arcavasti are scum, I feel we need to put someone under pressure.sooo

Arcvasti

I'll make a more informed judgement after I've gone back through the thread tomorrow.
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Arcvasti

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People have made excellent points about why FoU or Arcavasti are scum, I feel we need to put someone under pressure.sooo

Arcvasti

Sound logic. Pressure ought to make me flail and out me as scum. Might I suggest being more active yourself instead of primarily reacting to the accusations of others? Its rather fun that way, to be entirely honest, and is often more helpful. You don't even need a particularly good reason right now. We're still at least somewhat within the hazy fog of deceit, despair and delusion that is RVS. I mean, the reasoning for the initial votes on Roo ranged from random to bloody stupid and they eventually led to a successful scumhunt after pruning and guiding by more experienced players.

RE: End of D1 analysis:

Bolded White/Black text indicates players or roles or whatnot of unconfirmed affiliation
Red text indicates confirmed scum or a specific scum faction
Green text indicates confirmed living town or a specific town role
Purple text indicates deceased town

-Fillipk had vote on roo because earlier flailing shenanigans
-Kilakan votes roo because suspicion
-Me and Fallacy both vote roo in order to pressure them into outing as scum
-TheDarkStar and Persus13 both try to defend roo, citing previous LSP-like behaviour
-Roo claims they are a one-shot seer
-Kilakan and Persus13 both get murdered in the night by Mafia and Werewolves respectively.

I've drawn some conclusions above which basically amount to the following:

-Mafia are going after effective scumhunters
-Town Docter/Jailer/Whatever, if any, did not protect Kilakan despite the latter's requests to do so. Its possible they used their power on Fallacy or some more esoteric target or that they don't exist.
-Werewolves went after Persus13 rather then the other notable scumhunter, FallacyofUrist, thus making the latter somewhat suspicious, which may or may not be intentional. Persus13 was notable for two things: Voting Dampe and defending Roo before the end. The way I see it, there are a few main possibilities:

A: Dampe is a Werewolf
B: Dampe is being not-so-subtly framed as a Werewolf
C: The Werewolves thought that, due to their defense of Roo, Persus13 was Mafia and wanted to eliminate a member of the rival scum team.
D: The Werewolves nightkilled randomly and are probably laughing their tails off at our overanalysis of the situation

Interestingly, Dampe is currently FallacyofUrist's prime suspect. Considering the latter is definitely MY prime suspects[With Dampe being right after/very close to them in suspiciousness], this puts an interesting spin on things. I need to sleep right now, but a pressure vote and some pointed questions on one or both of the two will most likely follow sometime tomorrow.
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fillipk

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I intend to be more active I just haven't had the time, and thus wanted to start the flailing for when I had time.
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Giving waitlisted people the ability to murder non-responsive players was a great idea. Need to do that more often.
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