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[Comrade Shamrock]

Arcvasti:

And yes, I WAS attacking Kilakan/Fallacy. Now that Kilakan's dead, the thread's been moving quite a bit less then before. Between them and Fallacy, they were doing all the scumhunting while assuring all the newbies that scumhunting was a towntell and that they were thus above suspicion. Kilakan has been exonerated post-humously, but I voiced my reinforced suspicions against Fallacy a few posts above this one.

It's not that I argue with the logic here. It seems quite sound, however the way you presented it is what I take issue with. It was a subtle attack, which I find is the more scummy part. You do not outright say that Fallacy or Killakan could be scum but rather imply that they are and leave others to dig up something that could be used to lynch them. It reminds me of what I when I'm scum.

Plus it's paired with your vote and defense of roo. So it kinda looks like this to me when you boil it down.

- Using self-preservation is silly as a scum tell.
- I'll take my vote off fillipk and pressure roo to come in to defend himself.
- By the way Kilakan and Fallacy could be scum.

Fallacy and Killa were his primary accusers at the time so it just seems like another defense of him. Offer some defenses for him to discredit the case and then try and shift suspicion to his accusers.

Moonlit:
You've gone quiet anything to say?

[Teneb]

-snip-

Again, please don't use red for anything other than voting.

Either way, all your speculation on night actions is just that: speculation. Unless you have some hard data from stuff such as abilities, you are just spreading WIFOM. How about you start asking questions to the living, and focus on scumhunting, rather than wild speculation that will not result in anything. Because I see a lot of you saying Dampe is probably a wolf, yet you do nothing to confirm it. No questions towards them, no votes.

Arcvasti, nice attempt at feigning activity with long posts filled with nothing but speculation, scum.

[Comrade Shamrock]

Moonlit:

It seems that a lot of you just put a vote on Roo to make him defend himself. However, it... kinda worked? The problem being that Roo's defense instead implicated him. He refuses to make a defense in the beginning, and when you all vote him to get some kind of defense out, his defense seems to implicate himself. Actually, yeah, those extra pressure votes did work, as it got him to implicate himself.

Is this some sort of defense for Arcvasti or are you just commentating on what happened? If you were just commentating where were you going with this bit?

Do you suspect anyone? So far today you have defended people and offered little in the way of suspicions or really no suspicions at all.

Dampe:
Get in here now, silent town don't help and they are an active hindrance as they leave people waiting for answers.

Doctor:
Any comments over the day and nights events?

[flabort]

Votecount:
TheDarkStar
FallacyofUrist
Teneb
Comrade Shamrock
Varee
Arcvasti - Comrade Shamrock, Fillipk, Teneb
Dampe
Notquitethere
The Moonlit Shadow -  Notquitethere
Fillipk
4maskwolf (Up for replacement)

Roo (Dead) Arcvasti

Not Voting:
TheDarkStar, FallacyofUrist, Varee, Dampe, The Moonlit Shadow, 4maskwolf (Up for replacement)

Day ends in 22 in game hours (35 hours), Monday 10:00 PM Mountain Time. (My math may be wrong on this one)

Dampe will be poked again.

[Arcvasti]

-snip-

Again, please don't use red for anything other than voting.

Ah, I see now. It messes with the script used for vote tracking. I'll remember that.

Unvote all

Moonlit:

Arcvasti, I think we better see a defense from you. 4 people have voted you, so no defense means your getting lynched. No defense, is also exactly what Roo did. And we all know who he was, don't we...

I only see three people voting me and one of them[Fillipk's] is explicitly stated to be a pressure vote based on preliminary evidence. I do see your point, however.


Alright, I will now begin defending myself.

Either way, all your speculation on night actions is just that: speculation. Unless you have some hard data from stuff such as abilities, you are just spreading WIFOM. How about you start asking questions to the living, and focus on scumhunting, rather than wild speculation that will not result in anything. Because I see a lot of you saying Dampe is probably a wolf, yet you do nothing to confirm it. No questions towards them, no votes.

Arcvasti, nice attempt at feigning activity with long posts filled with nothing but speculation, scum.

As I may have mentioned, I dislike acting without considering the evidence we have at hand. What you term "Speculation" is the only evidence we HAVE in Mafia, besides that garnered through information roles. I am attempting to document evidence so as to make it more accessible to those not bothering to reread the thread to analyze voting and posting patterns. I also include personal theories under the same basis: Putting more information on the table. Including personal theories in this mix is doubly important because if I die, everything in my head will no longer be accessible to the rest of the town, potentially losing us access to crucial data. Putting down my thoughts now is especially important because they will obtain new significance after my hypothetical demise. If I were posthumously exonerated from being scum, then theories that seemed scummy earlier will acquire renewed usefulness. Right now, everything I say is tainted with the shadow of doubt because I am currently under suspicion. After my death however, everyone would KNOW that all I said was to aid the town.

The other main objective of long wordy posts is to attempt to make transparent my thought processes to avoid ambiguity later. Not entirely sure that that's worked terrible well though, based on my current status.

Next, I will assemble a case file on myself, as I did for The Moonlit Shadow, Roo and Fillipk midway through last round.

Spoiler: Arcvasti (click to show/hide)

1: I said I was suspicious of The Moonlit Shadow, Roo and, to a MUCH lesser degree, Kilakan, but thought FallacyofUrist was reasonable.
2: I said that a D1 no lynch would be fine with me, before FallacyofUrist convinced me otherwise
3: I joined in on FallacyofUrist's vote to extend the day
4: I reiterated my suspicions in #1, still finding The Moonlit Shadow to be slightly scummier then Roo
5: I did a big compilation of evidence on The Moonlit Shadow, Roo and Fillipk. I drew the following conclusions: That Fillipk had dropped the most scumtells, that The Moonlit Shadow was probably just panicking from noobishness and that Roo's actions were defensive and that I would withhold further judgement until they began posting again.
6: I asked for clarification on Kilakan's reasoning for Roo's scumminess
7: I asked Roo to justify their vote on The Moonlit Shadow
8: I asserted that self-preservation was not necessarily a scumtell to Kilakan
9: I unvoted Fillipk and put a pressure vote on Roo in order to flush them out
10: I did the subtle attack/reminder thing against Kilakan and FallacyofUrist
11: I said that Roo's claiming of a one-shot seer was suspicious and calculated
12: I defended FallacyofUrist against Roo, although I admitted it was possible that they were tricksy scum
13: I said that those who defended Roo, primarily Persus13 and TheDarkStar/b] could potentially be other mafia
14: I inferred from the target of the Werewolf nightkill that FallacyofUrist could be one of them and that the Werewolves seemed to be gunning for Mafia over town
15: I justified my earlier defense/neutrality towards Roo and acknowledged my suspicions about Kilakan/FallacyofUrist
16: I posted an analysis of Roo's lynch and more theorizing about night actions

Comrade Shamrock: Which of the above actions seem suspicious to you and why? Your main beef with me appears to be my lack of aggressiveness and my earlier defense of Roo. The former is probably a product of me being both new to Bay12 Mafia and being too polite to directly assault people[Which, you're right, isn't very helpful]. And I justified my defense of Roo above, but I will reiterate:

- Before the first extend, most of the people voting Roo didn't have any solid evidence. Lynching Roo would have been a mostly random vote that wouldn't have given us much information even if correct.
- Roo's major scumtells, being defensive and posting oddly, were disputed by a number of more experienced[Persus13 and TheDarkStar were the main two] players who cited meta-experience and the fact that a town would not want to be mislynched because it would hurt town.
- It wasn't until Roo claimed a one-shot seer in hasty self-defense that I really knew they were scum. Their subsequent attack on their persecutors reinforced it, but that roleclaim was what REALLY convinced me Roo was scum.

I'm fairly certain that addresses the major strikes against me. I would be happy to elaborate should the above prove an inadequate defense or if I forgot something that I did.


Now, to the attack. I will compile a similar case file for FallacyofUrist[Yes, I AM using the red text correctly this time. Sorry about using it indiscriminately earlier.].

Alright, FallacyofUrist, let this be my glove in your face. I believe you to be scum,  to be specific, a Werewolf.

My evidence is the following:

-They kinda switched their primary target around a lot First they were chasing after The Moonlit Shadow and then switched mid-pounce to Fillipk and then 180ed to Roo as the popular opinion changed. This is in stark contrast to Comrade Shamrock's focus on me and Kilakan's focus on Roo. This could be due to changing evidence, but I'm somewhat skeptical. An explanation of your chain of thought here, FallacyofUrist, would be appreciated.
-Your main suspect right now, Dampe, is both a newbie and a lurker with only circumstantial nightkill evidence on them. Your other suspect, Varee, doesn't even have that small bit of evidence going for them You jumped on Roo's bandwagon earlier because both of the other suspects were too newbish and you accused Persus13's earlier focus on Dampe of being scummy because it was a lurker lynch. Now you've done a 180 and I don't see sufficient evidence to justify completely flipping your point of view like that.
-You've kinda just ducked under my earlier[Less vigorous] accusations and haven't done any posts attacking Dampe or Varee like you said you would. Gaining towncred via nailing Roo and then just disappearing and attacking lurkers seems pretty scummy. Granted, inactivity could be because IRL stuff, but I still find this suspicious. If it IS because IRL stuff, please say so and I'll take this strike off. If so, I kinda understand, my posts have been sort of sparse lately for IRL reasons. Single large posts instead of multiple mid-sized ones.

[fillipk]

So first off UNVOTE because I honestly don't believe he is scum.

I vote ROO! Cuz... I dunno!

The Moonlit Shadow, why do you vote Roo without a single reason?

He asked me what I was.

Why are you concerned about who you are? If you are town, then you know that and thus feel no need to hide. If you are scum, you obviously have a reason to hide who you are, and so feel nervous when pressured about it.

FoU: Do you think you can tell apart newbie flailing from scum flailing? If so, how? If not, why did you vote for someone who is very much new despite that?

My reasoning is basically that it seemed suspicious. Remember, as a newbie, I have no other strategies.

This strikes me as highly suspicious, like you are hiding behind the cover as a newbie, and even if you are everyone has a strategy, newbie strategies are just not as good.

So, if we were both scum, we would know it. So why would he draw attention to me, or himself, like that? And why would I vote for him, knowing that my vote would make the majority against him? Unless we discussed it in the quicktopic, but I wouldn't trust that to a newbie.

Again hiding behind the newbie, also there are two scum teams

If he is scum, he would know if I'm town. So what's his purpose in asking me? And how am I supposed to respond without placing suspicion on me?

Again two scum teams

If he's town, and I'm town, then he would have a perfectly good reason to ask me, and I would have a perfectly good reason to suspect him.

Either of you could be scum and pretending town, or on different scum teams

If I'm scum and he's town, and he asks me that, I might react the way I did... maybe? I dunno.

Whatever. Maybe I should've thought this through before voting for Roo, though...
[/quote]So because of this The Moonlit Shadow

Yes I know this is a bit late but I was rereading the thread and found this, on the Fallacy thing, honestly I don't see him as super suspicious at the moment maybe pressure vote him?

[fillipk]

Moonlit Shadow

Only if someone seems suspicious enough.

What counts as suspicious enough?

Uh. Highly suspicious, with at least one piece of logical evidence, not just interpreting the scumminess of their posts, which, as a noob, I can't do very well.

Again the noob factor, at least try and stop saying you are a noob we know that, its getting kind of suspicious.

So in summary of both posts I believe The Moonlit Shadow is scum because they never let the noob factor drop, its their main defense, and yes I used it but I didn't keep going back to it.  I think they are a werewolf hiding behind the noob defense which they keep bringing up when people move in on them.

Yes I realize reasoning is from before they figured out about two scum teams but that is also why I believe they are scum, and made a misstep when they thought there was only one scum team.

[Comrade Shamrock]

Arcvasti:
The fact that 8,9,10 occurred together is something that causes discomfort.

On D1 you were the last to vote each player be it fillipk or roo. Cautious or making sure popular opinion is on side could be either. Given that you've gone after someone now leaning more towards cautious. But still it took most of the in game day to get there. Nerves?

New one here, one of your accusations seems a bit hypocritical. Albeit Fallacy isn't as new. I didn't find much weight in it to begin with.

Doctor:
You do realise that you're still in this game right?

[notquitethere]

Moonlit, I find it interesting that you're able to consider the other players in considerable depth... and yet no one is sufficiently suspicious yet?

[fillipk]

~snip~

Yes I realize reasoning is from before they figured out about two scum teams but that is also why I believe they are scum, and made a misstep when they thought there was only one scum team.

Yes I did, but when someone doesn't know something they can make mistakes, assuming you were on the only scum team is what I think happened and it is why I think you are scum, most likely a werewolf but I've seen mafia vote other mafia when it becomes convent to avoid suspiscion.  Your doing exactly what you need to right now to show up as town show up as town

@Arcvasti I'm finding him a bit more suspicious, maybe him and moonlit are on the werewolf side?

[flabort]

I have a potential replacement for 4maskwolf, I just need a reply from them to confirm it.

[Arcvasti]

Arcvasti Just saying, please don't put your words in someone's quote. Sorry if that was already there, but from the context, it seems you put it in. I think you probably forgot a '[\quote]' there, but it seems like I said those words. (It's the bolded yellow).

Yeah, that whole post was a mess of quote tags. With the whole "No editing in Mafia" thing, I should probably break my posts up into smaller ones right after each other for formatting reasons if they get too unwieldly.

Arcvasti:
The fact that 8,9,10 occurred together is something that causes discomfort.

Plus it's paired with your vote and defense of roo. So it kinda looks like this to me when you boil it down.

- Using self-preservation is silly as a scum tell.
- I'll take my vote off fillipk and pressure roo to come in to defend himself.
- By the way Kilakan and Fallacy could be scum.

That does seem a bit self-contradictory. IIRC, I actually wrote the last and first parts of the post before the rest of it and came to new conclusions midway through the post as more people posted.

On D1 you were the last to vote each player be it fillipk or roo. Cautious or making sure popular opinion is on side could be either. Given that you've gone after someone now leaning more towards cautious. But still it took most of the in game day to get there. Nerves?

Yeah, I was definitely pretty nonconfrontational D1. Somewhere in between caution and not wanting to yell at people. Normally on the rest Bay12 yelling or arguing with people starts flamewars and its a bit of cognitive dissonance to find those rules relaxed for strategic porpoises in Mafia.


Ah, remembered my OTHER accusation against FallacyofUrist that I neglected to put in the previous post:

-The roleclaiming of a one-shot seer: This, like when Roo claimed it, is probably my largest and most robust beef against FallacyofUrist. Why do I find this suspicious?
A: It was "used' on someone who was conveniently dead and proven Town
B: FallacyofUrist's use of their supposed power on Kilakan, someone they defended to me earlier and never outwardly suspected seems out of character.
C: Claiming to have used a one-shot seer on someone that died and was confirmed town doesn't do anything besides make FallacyofUrist seem town. They even admitted this afterwards.

New one here, one of your accusations seems a bit hypocritical. Albeit Fallacy isn't as new. I didn't find much weight in it to begin with.

Looking at their profile, FallacyofUrist hasn't been on Bay12 at all in three days[I didn't check earlier], so I see what you mean. I won't lynch someone without giving them a chance to defend themselves. I'm keeping my vote on for now, but if they still haven't posted and are about to die, I'll take it off.


Alright, I'm voting to Extend, for the following reasons:

- There are still 3-4ish people who haven't posted and several more who have only posted once or twice.

-There's been[Using 15ppp], 7-9 pages of stuff from D1. Compared to that, we've got only 3-4 pages from D2 and the end of the day is drawing near. That's markedly less information for building a robust case on, especially since the majorly suspicious people from D1 got either lynched or were absolved of their newbish mistakes. Having a lynch now or in the next few hours doesn't seem likely to be based on sound information.

- As vote currently stands, I'm pretty sure that I'll be the one lynched. Not that I couldn't leverage that to be helpful to the town[And will, if it comes down to that.], but I think that I'd probably be more useful alive then dead.

- I want to give FallacyofUrist additional opportunities to participate since they're probably busy IRL right now. I'm pressuring FallacyofUrist not because I want to lynch them right now, but because I suspect them and want to gain more information one way or the other from their defense of themselves.

[fillipk]

Day is over in about 4 hours, I don't think I'm going to vote to extend right now, Moonlit Shadow do you want to extend the day?

[Arcvasti]

Day is over in about 4 hours

WRONG. I checked, I'm in the same timezone as Flabort and that's what my forum time is set to. The day ends in about 45 minutes from this post, Flabort miscounted.

Spoiler: Math (click to show/hide)

Time of Flabort's last update post: 9:45ish AM June 30th
Time in hours from then until end of D2: 35 hours
9:45ish is rounded up until 10:00 for ease of calculation.
10 + 2 = 12
35 - 2 = 33
12 +  24 = 12:00 PM June 31st
33 - 24 = 9
12:00 PM + 9 hours = 9:00 PM
Minus fifteen minutes from my rounding earlier gives me 8:45 as an end date for the day

This is less then forty minutes before I get lynched, the last thirty of those minutes are minutes in which I will be doing IRL stuff and unable to defend myself or put any of my other pre-mortem stuff into order.

[Arcvasti]

Alright, my time's almost up here[15 minutes left] and I have to leave for a little while for IRL reasons. Two people are voting me and no more then one person is voting someone else. I'm going to get mislynched here unless some more people extend[Unlikely since only Fillipk is even online last I checked], so I'm roleclaiming and putting up all information I got from my role N1.


I am a Town Cop, I can determine if someone is Mafia or Not Mafia once per Night. This is completely useless against Werewolves. I used this power on TheDarkStar N1 and found them Not Mafia. If I DON'T get mislynched, I'll need the aid of a Docter to not get nightkilled because of this anyways, so I'm probably screwed.