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[hector13]

But then you're basically wasting D1.

I understand, even appreciate the mathematics behind your reasoning, but human behaviour can't be quantified.

If we don't scumhunt D1 because we're waiting on a cop, which might not even exist, then we have no information to base our future actions on.

Even if the cop did exist, they can't reveal that directly because they'd just get NK'd, which means they'd only be useful once, and there are two scum.

PPE:

Spoiler: OOG stuff (click to show/hide)

Effective because we eventually won the game, Scripten. I may have been a martyr for the cause and unable to enjoy contributing to the victory, but I was town, and town won

[origamiscienceguy]

ok, i'll take your word for it Unvote

I still don't want to vote for anybody untill I have a better idea about what's going on.

Peradon, if you were the jailkeeper, and all that was left was:
1 mafioso (who knows a jailkeeper is in the game)
1 cop who had previously revealed himself
1 townie
and yourself,
who would you protect, the cop, or one of the other 2?

[Peradon]

Looking at it from a mathematical standpoint, no-lynch will allways be better, because the number of players always decreases.

Here is how I see it:

There are two possibilities, not taking roles into account: 1) We lynch mafia 2) We lynch town

Now obviously lynching mafia is good.

But if we lynch town, yes we may be down two next day, but we also gain valuable information regarding who set up the mislynch in the first place, who jumped on the bandwagon, and who tried not to get involved. This would lead us to a great situation, where we can logically deduce who one or more mafia are. We may lose two town, but they also lose.

(Also, you forgot to put in the chance that we mislynch the cop, or the mafia NK's the cop.....)

Peradon, if you were the jailkeeper, and all that was left was:
1 mafioso (who knows a jailkeeper is in the game)
1 cop who had previously revealed himself
1 townie
and yourself,
who would you protect, the cop, or one of the other 2?

Well, I would probably go with one of the other two. A cop wont do any good when jailed, and I have a 50/50 chance of imprisoning the mafia, so that would probably be the best bet.

[Peradon]

On the other hand, be very careful with wagons that build too fast. A common theme of mafia is that the least charismatic/insightful player gets lynched on D1. Many times, these players are town who just aren't as experienced. Don't just look for poor logic, though that can get you on the right track. Also look for scum motivation behind a player's actions.

This is true, but I still think Zormod is scummy. He posts some, but his posts are not long, nor are they productive. They answer a question simply, with no explanation and no question back. This is, in my opinion, is fairly scummy.

[Comrade Shamrock]

mastahcheese:

...You seriously would start trying to piece together info for a claim this early?

Yes and you wouldn't? You would wait until just before you claimed to get the wincon's wording which if you don't have will bring it crashing down? Sorry but the way I see it is you could be gathering info for later on if it's needed.

Hector:
Keep her lit. 

Zomod:
Now that Hector has posted who is your top suspect?

origami:
You remind me of Scintillant, congratulations you are now the towniest person here in my eyes.

I'm looking at Scripten-Mastah interactions.

I think it could be some really professional distancing but Scripten tends to have this out so it could just be another day at the office for him. What do you think?

I'm leaning towards day at the office.

[hector13]

Hector:
Keep her lit. 

Uh... sure?

Don't know what you mean, but sure!

everyone: What are your thoughts on Origami's no-lynch suggestion, and what I think was role-fishing?

[mastahcheese]

Shamrock: Maybe my view is different than yours, in that I find fake-claiming to be mentally painful. My view is that the truth works. If I'm town, I won't lie. If I'm scum, then I hate it. So no, I don't think about it. Especially this early.

I am heavily opposed to no-lynching D1. Even if the player count does decrease, you're only increases the odds of a successful random lynch hitting scum.
It shouldn't be random. Period. You get role flips to acquire information, as use those to make informed opinions. Not random guesses.

And relying on a cop is an excellent way to get them killed.
The cop's job is more than finding scum. It's about finding town, too, so you can clear them. Then, near the end of the game, you say who's good and who's bad, and kick the concept of guessing in the gonads.
Which is why it's also powerful for scum to claim cop, so I would advice also being wary of a cop who hasn't flipped. But that's getting into too much detail for right now.

Origami: Sorry for butting in on your question to Peredur, but did you take into account the possibility of the person that's claiming cop might be the scum?
Especially if they suspect a jailkeeper is in the game, because that drops the odds of there being a real cop from 66% to 50%.

[origamiscienceguy]

Yeah, I can start to see the folly in my choice. This is my first day-one mafia so I was trying to experiment, but that seems to be a bad idea.

[hector13]

What changed your mind?

[origamiscienceguy]

the IC's

[Zormod]

Zomod:
Now that Hector has posted who is your top suspect?

Dani. That might not last long, though.

Here's my attempt at a reads list.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Scripten: Appears town.

Peradon: Scumhunts a lot. I'll go with town.

Nirjen: Hasn't posted much, but the posts are very high on content. I doubt he is scum.

Comrade Shamrock: Has a slight town lean.

hector13: Just started. Not very much to go on, but seems town from the posts he does have.

Mastacheese: Has a unique questioning style. Doesn't seem too scummy.

Origamiscienceguy: Null read so far.

Dani: messed up a bit during RQS. Slight scum lean, but fixing it.
 

[hector13]

You seem to be trying to avoid aggravating other players by scumreading them Zormod. Why is that?

Can you also give us some examples of the posts that other players have made that justify your present reads?

[Peradon]

Zormod: Why do you suspect Dani more than anyone else?

Hector: Based on Scripten's conversation with mastah, what is your read on him, and why? What do you think of mastah?

Comrade: The content in your posts seem to be confusing. Would you care to elaborate why you think origami is the towniest?

everyone: What are your thoughts on Origami's no-lynch suggestion, and what I think was role-fishing?

I dont think he was role-fishing. I think he was being honest about what he thought. I dont agree with him, but I dont think he was trying to lead the town into a no-lynch. Of course, this is all gut feeling. I have no tangible evidence, so I'm not ruling him as town yet....

[origamiscienceguy]

Comrade: The content in your posts seem to be confusing. Would you care to elaborate why you think origami is the towniest?

+1 who is skintillant?

[hector13]

Hector: Based on Scripten's conversation with mastah, what is your read on him, and why? What do you think of mastah?

I'm not sure really. They've both been arguing a lot about the mechanics of the game (voting, and pressuring people to vote, specifically) and Scripten does seem to have taken a special interest in mastah, for reasons that aren't clear to me just yet, beyond their differing play styles. So it's null, though I can find reasons for leaning toward scum and town for him:

Town because he's putting pressure on someone and asking good questions, but scum because that pressure has been on pretty much one person, and a lot of that pressure and the ensuing argument seems to be over their differing playstyles, which is probably actually a good thing to have in a BM, aside from the lack of content.

I'm not sure what to think of mastah so far, for the same reasons. He's been defending himself from Scripten, with a few other questions to other people. He's more aggressive than Scripten, I'm not sure if this is to make people back off him or to make them slip up.

What are your thoughts on their (Scripten and Mastah) interaction, Peradon?