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[flabort]

Votecount
Comrade Shamrock: {0}
Dani: {0}
hector13: {0}
mastahcheese: Scripten, Comrade Shamrock {2}
Nerjin: {0}
origamiscienceguy: {0}
Peradon: {0}
Scripten: {0}
Zormod: Peradon, Dani {2}
Not voting:  hector13, mastahcheese, Nerjin, oragamiscienceguy, Zormod

Day will end Wednesday, January 28th, 8:00 PM SMT (GMT-7)

Let me know if I missed anyone.

[origamiscienceguy]

probably origami, for not having a top scumspect yet?

I don't have a scumspect because I haven't found anybody who i suspect yet.
I don't think randomly voting people to see their reactions will work for me. I would rather ask some questions, and answer any that are given to me. Then read the whole conversations to make a more educated guess then just a random vote.

[Peradon]

probably origami, for not having a top scumspect yet?

I don't have a scumspect because I haven't found anybody who i suspect yet.
I don't think randomly voting people to see their reactions will work for me. I would rather ask some questions, and answer any that are given to me. Then read the whole conversations to make a more educated guess then just a random vote.

Why wouldnt voting to pressure people work for you?

[Scripten]

Mastahcheese:

And the mislynch is the scum's second weapon, in case you forgot.
A vote should be cast when it has been thought over. Questioning someone on why they've yet to vote holds no purpose, but to press them into action before they feel they're ready.
An unprepared town is a feast for scum.

There are no hammers in effect in newbie games, so votes aren't going to end the day early. Beyond that, an unprepared town is best prepared when players become active, start voting, and make pushes on other players. What I am saying is, voting is an integral part of scumhunting, which is the only way town can win.

I don't care if you scumread it. I care anyone scumreads it. And you can not tell me with a straight face that it's never happened.
If you can, I encourage you to read up. Cause it happens a whole lot.

Scum very rarely lead wagons on other players, though. It's significantly scummier to push other people to vote for a player without actually voting them yourself. (Scum-leading-town is the term I've heard for this tactic.) Also, if a player does not have much of a case because the game is in its early stages, that's less likely to get them scumread than if they have a poor case in a game with lots of content. It's all context, but voting is important in both situations.

Encouraging to vote correctly, with thought, and evidence, is town.
Saying "If you think he's so scummy, kill his ass!" is not town. It's scum pushing for a mislynch.
Correct me if I'm wrong. (And no, I am not putting words into your mouth, or saying you said those words. I am using hyperbole to make a valid point.)

Like I said above, it's all about context. A player who votes without a case early game is less suspicious than a player who votes later on with the same lack of a case. And anyway, it's like I said earlier, a player's personality (and their relative experience in the game) is a big factor in whether or not they should be scumread.

[origamiscienceguy]

probably origami, for not having a top scumspect yet?

I don't have a scumspect because I haven't found anybody who i suspect yet.
I don't think randomly voting people to see their reactions will work for me. I would rather ask some questions, and answer any that are given to me. Then read the whole conversations to make a more educated guess then just a random vote.

Why wouldnt voting to pressure people work for you?

Because, to get an emotional reaction out of them, I would have to convince them that I am convinced about them. And I can't do that without enough evidence.

Towards the end of the day, I will either vote for the person who acted the scummiest, and if nobody seems scummy enough, i'll just vote no lynch. In fact, until I see someone acting very scummy, I'll just vote No Lynch/cook

[hector13]

Whoa whoa whoa, there. No lynching is a bad idea. The only action you get information from is the NK, and that is spotty at best, because we won't know why the scum chose who they did, given the lack of any lynch wagons.

If this is serious, Vote Origami.

[Peradon]

Day will end Wednesday, January 28th, 8:00 PM SMT (GMT-7)

Any reason why we are extending the time? In the OP, you said 72hrs per day. Here you have it set to 120hrs....

[origamiscienceguy]

I disagree. On the first day, if everybody just randomly votes, there is a 7/9 chance that a town member would get lynched. I do not want to vote randomly for this reason. If I see someone acting scummy, I will vote for them. If not, I would rather wait one night to get some vital cop information (assuming we have one) and analyze the night kill. On day two, I would rather be 1 townie down than 2 townies down.

[hector13]

Day will end Wednesday, January 28th, 8:00 PM SMT (GMT-7)

Any reason why we are extending the time? In the OP, you said 72hrs per day. Here you have it set to 120hrs....

Weekends don't count for deadlines. So since we started on Friday, Saturday Sunday don't count, timer starts on Monday.

[/quote]

I disagree. On the first day, if everybody just randomly votes, there is a 7/9 chance that a town member would get lynched. I do not want to vote randomly for this reason. If I see someone acting scummy, I will vote for them. If not, I would rather wait one night to get some vital cop information (assuming we have one) and analyze the night kill. On day two, I would rather be 1 townie down than 2 townies down.

But that just smacks of apathy, man. If we no lynch, and everyone's fine with it, nobody will do any scumhunting, which is... there are no words do describe how stupid that is!

I understand you don't want to vote just now, but it won't actually count for anything 'til Wednesday, and there's no guarantee of a cop in this, far as I'm aware.

Given your desire for a no lynch and... I don't know if it's necessarily fishing for roles, really, but it's suspicious. I don't like it.

[Peradon]

I disagree. On the first day, if everybody just randomly votes, there is a 7/9 chance that a town member would get lynched. I do not want to vote randomly for this reason. If I see someone acting scummy, I will vote for them. If not, I would rather wait one night to get some vital cop information (assuming we have one) and analyze the night kill. On day two, I would rather be 1 townie down than 2 townies down.

I dont think relying on roles is a very good idea. Scumhunting is a key part, and a mislynch would give us loads of info, so a no-lynch vote is not a very good idea.

[Scripten]

I have other stuff to talk about, but I wanted to get this out there first.

No lynching on D1 is suboptimal play both for town and scum. Yes, it's pro-scum, but scum don't want to be caught -doing- it. Likewise, despite the odds against hitting scum with a lynch, a no lynch puts control of the game into the hands of the scumteam, which is a bad position for town. They can just NK anyone and have town be just as confused after the night's end! It's like day 1 all over again, but with one townie down.

So, in short, just don't do it.

[Peradon]

Ok then, when would the correct time to no-lynch be? Is there ever one?

[Scripten]

Occasionally, you run into a situation called MyLo, which stands for Mislynch and Lose. If there is no obvious scum left, letting the scumteam take out one of the townies and confirming them is best done by avoiding a lynch and forcing scum to take the prerogative. Be careful not to confuse this with LyLo, Lynch or Lose, where not lynching scum results in a town loss.

[origamiscienceguy]

I disagree. On the first day, if everybody just randomly votes, there is a 7/9 chance that a town member would get lynched. I do not want to vote randomly for this reason. If I see someone acting scummy, I will vote for them. If not, I would rather wait one night to get some vital cop information (assuming we have one) and analyze the night kill. On day two, I would rather be 1 townie down than 2 townies down.

I dont think relying on roles is a very good idea. Scumhunting is a key part, and a mislynch would give us loads of info, so a no-lynch vote is not a very good idea.

I am not relying on the cop role. I was just saying that it would be a huge benefit to wait a day and get a cop result if there was one. I am a very logical and mathmatical person, so when I read day one, I see this:

there is a 2/3 chance there is a cop in this game. and 2/9 of the players are mafia if we lynch on day 1, and we get the 2/9 chance to lynch mafia, meaning that in the next night, there will be an 1/12 chance of a cop getting the mafia. But there is a 7/9 chance we will lynch town, and if that happens, there is a 1/6 chance that the guard will get scum. In total, if we randomly vote on day one, there is a 1/54 chance that both mafia will be lynched/discovered by cop. 7/18 chance of getting 1 mafia lynched/discovered by cop. And a 16/27 chance of getting a town lynched and no mafia discovered by cop.

In percentages, if we randomly vote day one, (and assuming the mafia kill night 1 and don't kill the cop)there is a:

2% chance of lynching a mafioso day one, and the town cop finding the other one (one townie killed, 2 mafioso killed)

13% chance of a mafia getting lynched and the cop finding a townie night 1 (one mafia killed, 1 townie killed)

16% chance that a townie is lynched day one, and the cop finds a mafioso during the night (2 townies killed, one mafioso killed)

69% chance a townie is lynched and the cop finds a townie during the night (2 townies killed)

Note: this includes the 2/3 chance of a cop being in the game, I tread an absent cop the same as a cop finding a townie since for this purpose, they are the same
(please correct me if you see any mathematical errors)

the odds are stacked against us for finding a mafia to lynch. I would rather minimize our casualties day one, then ruthlessly attack the mafia every day afterwards.

[Scripten]

Who do you suspect the most and why? ‘Nobody’ is not a valid answer.

Barring hector13 and Comrade Shamrock (since they haven't posted much, so there isn't even a gut reaction to go on), probably origami, for not having a top scumspect yet?
Well. That's ironic.
Anyway, it'd have to be Zormod, because he answers what he deigns to answer, nothing more, without much elaboration, and asks generic questions to give the impression of activity.

...
Vote Zormod

This is an example of a good vote for the current level of content in the game. Find the distinction between lurking, which is not very alignment-indicative, and active-lurking, which is.

Spoiler: "OOG Stuff" (click to show/hide)

Scripten was an IC in my previous game (the sprint beginners' game before this one) and he does appear single-minded in his scumhunting, which was only a bad thing from my perspective because I got lynched D1 but he also figured out the scum-team the next day, so it was effective.

>.>

The "Is there mafia chat in this game?" question seems to be his go to n00b question though

I keep dreaming about actually tripping someone up on one of those. It's doubtful, but it would be so beautiful.

I think I agree with dani. Zormod seems scum due to the lack of content in his posts. Either he isnt into the game and is just posting one-liners to get it out of the way, or he is scum lurking. I think its the latter.

On the other hand, be very careful with wagons that build too fast. A common theme of mafia is that the least charismatic/insightful player gets lynched on D1. Many times, these players are town who just aren't as experienced. Don't just look for poor logic, though that can get you on the right track. Also look for scum motivation behind a player's actions.

Because, to get an emotional reaction out of them, I would have to convince them that I am convinced about them. And I can't do that without enough evidence.

You can't just sit around and wait for scum to tell you who they are. You need to be proactive. You need to ask questions, confront people, and vote.

-snip-

I'm not going to get into this very much, but suffice to say that, while it looks great from a statistical perspective, D1 no-lynches are suboptimal due to the psychological component of the game. They produce apathy even in active towns.