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[pisskop]

Flailing?  I used my vote to elicit a reaction.

[notquitethere]

Flailing?  I used my vote to elicit a reaction.

I see... and do you feel like you're closer to lynching scum now after that elliciting?

[pisskop]

No

[notquitethere]

Do you intend on producing a case on someone, or are you waiting to bandwagon someone else's case?

[pisskop]

Cheeetar is a good actor or not scum.
Shaker is being lurkbait.
  I find Tiruin to be a little suspicious still.  Seems she came out just long enough to post a song and dance, but I have no more case for lack of offensive material.

Persus is my top choice, atm.

[Tiruin]

Tiruin, pointing out people's lack of cases doesn't help if you don't put forward a case yourself. Who is scum?

That's it.
Coupled with the long load time of pages, and the general 'Hello internet, have a nice rest' for...generally most of the morning and afternoon = a very sad Tiruin.

That, and I need to fully read back. Like was mentioned, be back in a half day with better situational awareness!

[notquitethere]

Analysis 1
The Question of Shakerag
I think the key to this is the fact that the scumteam had reasonable suspicion by the end of day 1 that Flabort was a town vig and that he was considering night killing Shakerag. Actually, in PMs, Flabort told Mastahcheese that he was considering killing someone other than Shakerag but these PMs took place during N1 after the lynch. So at the time of the lynch scum had a strong incentive to kill Flabort IF Shakerag is scum. If Shakerag is non-dopp, then scum have a reasonable incentive to kill TDS instead and let Flabort kill a townie. At the same time, both TDS and Flabort (D1's near-tie lynch candidates) were non-dopp so the scum were unlikely to stick their neck out especially to favour one over the other.

As you'll recall, this was the state of votes at the end of D1:
pisskop: mastahcheese
TheDarkStar: Cheeetar [x2], Deus Asmoth, Jim Groovester, Scripten, UXLZ, flabort, notquitethere [7]
Tiruin: pisskop
flabort: zombie urist, Shakerag, TheDarkStar, Toaster, ToonyMan [5]
Not Voting: Tiruin, Persus

But only six hours before, the results were very different:
pisskop: Cheeetar[pre-claim], Jim Groovester, flabort, mastahcheese [4]
TheDarkStar: Deus Asmoth, UXLZ [2]
Tiruin: pisskop, Scripten, notquitethere [3]
flabort: Shakerag, TheDarkStar, Toaster, ToonyMan [4]
Not Voting: Tiruin, Persus, Zombie Urist [3]

Shakerag has just voted for Flabort, with the intention of tying the vote between Pisskop and Flabort. Obviously Shakerag regardless of alignment had reason to kill Flabort. Next, Deus Asmoth votes for Flabort mostly to save Pisskop. We know that the pair of them had been colluding on their night actions previously hence his desire to save Pisskop and their plan. Next ZU makes a completely non-productive vote on Scripten who has no chance of getting lynched at such a late hour. So ZU was happy with Flabort being lynched. Then, about an hour before the deadline, things start to swing. With Flabort up for the chop, Jim, Scripten, and Cheetar throw their votes on TDS. If Shakerag is scum then it's unlikely Jim, Scripten and Cheetar could be as they had the chance to solidify the Flabort vote but they plumped for TDS instead. With the vote tied (but ZU apparently not noticing Cheetar had claimed enchanter) ZU breaks the tie (while claiming he's preventing a tie) to lynch Flabort. ZU really wants Flabort dead. I then tie the vote and send out PMs to save Flabort. Deus answers the call and votes TDS, saving Flabort.

So what do we learn here? If Shakerag is scum, then:
Jim, Scripten, Cheetar, NQT, and Deus are most likely not scum AND ZU is quite possibly his scumbuddy.

If Shakerag is not a doppelganger (and scum would expect a free town death out of Flabort):
ZU is probably not a doppelganger, some of Jim, Scripten, Cheetar, NQT, or Deus may be scum trying to push an alternative lynch to Flabort.

As such, we learn a hell of a lot by lynching Shakerag. ZU would be a reasonable second choice.

Follow up:
Deus Asmoth, Pisskop, can you quote the PMs you sent between each other where you first colluded about your night actions? If you were scum you would most likely have done this in the scumchat. It's possible to fabricate PMs but it's easy to get wrong and you don't have much time: the next time either of you post I want to see those PMs.

ZU, you obviously didn't care about a tie being formed at the end of the day when you voted Scripten, you only appeared to care about it when it looked like Flabort might not be lynched. What's the deal?

Shakerag, are you going to present a case today? You've yet to explain why you were you so reticent about continuing playing post-death via the possible medium.


Why Kill Toonyman?
The only people Toony voted was Shakerag, Mastahcheese and Flabort— tellingly perhaps he was the only player on D1 to put any votes on Mastahcheese (and Shakerag).


Low-Participants

The price of not playing: I'm compiling a list of the possible scum teams (for the next analysis post). As Tiruin and Persus haven't been seriously in danger of being lynched and didn't make a serious attempt to get anyone lynched we know the least about their true commitments. As such, we'd learn a lot by lynching one of them. Or, perhaps more usefully, threatening them until they start playing. Persus has begun to do things, but Tiruin (as personable as she may be) has only offered excuses.

Tiruin, other than myself, Scripten and Pisskop who made a reasonable attempt to lynch you on D1, no one has paid you much serious attention and you've not thought to press a lynch. As personable as I find you, I still want to see you pin your flag to the mast and vote for someone. Do you think Persus is suspicious? What about ZU? Shakerag? Jim? I know your internet has been crappy, but if you don't have scumbuddies to protect surely you can vote for someone?

Tiruin/Persus, if you had have been around at the end of the day, who would you have voted for when the vote was tied between Pisskop and Flabort? How about when the vote was tied between Flabort & TDS?

Spoiler: Scum Knew Deus was going to Protect Pisskop (click to show/hide)

Hello there. I'm reasonably sure that both of you are on the town's side, so I've decided to tell you that I'm going to be spending the night guarding Pisskop lets flabort decide to murder him. If everything goes according to plan, we should both get out of the night alive (I'm a Guardian and so shouldn't be killed by anything I block that was heading for flabort). I tell you this so that on the off chance that I get killed tonight someone will at least know what I was doing when I bit the bullet.

Spoiler: Messages That Flabort Inadvertently Sent To The Scum Team (click to show/hide)

I'm still undecided on whether to kill Shakerag, or to go after another target like pisskop.
...
Or maybe someone I hadn't considered before, like Tiruin. I still don't see why Tiruin was found scummy, but there seems to be some general lynch-objective towards her.

Eh, screw it. You guys can support me and let everyone know it was me who killed Shakerag. I said I intend to anyways, and he certainly believes I will, so I guess I should follow through.

]I think Shakerag's reaction was pretty suspicious (and he didn't PM me about the TolyK ploy, if that's anything to go by). Tiruin is a deadweight in the game right now so getting rid of her would do our investigations a favour. My worry is scum might have taken steps to protect Shakerag, or his defeatism might have been a War Vet trick to get you to definitely follow through... I'm probably being paranoid here. Make the final decision for yourself. That said, I'd advise against Pisskop as he should have a Patrol or Track result to report.

Yes. I could shoot Shake or not, and he could be a vet or not. Eh... If the scum think I'll kill him, and protect him, that could end very badly for all of us.
I'm not sure that I like that reason for killing Tiruin, but it's more justification than I had and I came up with it.
Yes. Again, good advice regarding Pisskop.
What do you think of Cheeetar? Why do you think Pisskop kept repeating that question to me, and why did he want him dead?
I could throw a curveball and kill Jim.

No, I think I've made my choice.

I'm picking my target for the reason that of my top three suspects, the scum may have protected one or two to spite me or prevent my kill going through, one has stuff that he needs to post in the morning to prove his towniness and will get lynched if he really is scum, and the third JUST got replaced in, so I'll give her a night to live.

You can relay this to the thread, I'd prefer if it doesn't leave this small circle during the night, but I have picked my target now.

I'll keep quiet about this for tonight, sure. I think Cheetar is most likely not scum. He didn't know there were four doppelgangers at the beginning of the game when I asked him a question about scum-team formation. I've felt it was a non-dopp slip.

Yeah.
So probably town or at worst an alien.
He claimed enchanter, right? I don't think it's possible for one person to be given multiple roles, but I don't know for sure.
And I don't think he'd have a reason to lie if he were human. I can't find any alien tech on the big role-list that gives a double vote.

So he's most likely a human enchanter.

Could be an Alien Enchanter Something, if two or more things can be assigned to one person. ((Oh, man, it would be awful if he were a Hivemind Enchanter))

Feel free to do so if you want, but I'm personally tired of all the PMs, so don't expect anything from me.

OK, this is the last one I'll send to you tonight.

And it's just to say, I respect these wishes.

Extra-Questions

Cheetar, do you think Pisskop's flavour reporting being inconsistent with your sources implies anything about his actual alignment rather than just inconsistent description writing?

UXLZ, what do you think of the arguments I've outline above?

Scripten, being friendly isn't necessarily a sign of being on the same scum team. Do you have anything else against Tiruin?

Jim, can you rank the players in a rough-and-ready list of scummiest-to-least-scummiest?

Toaster, so... now your only scum pick is dead what are you going to do?

Pisskop, I see you haven't actually resumed voting the player that is apparently your top choice? Is there any particular reason why you play so erratically?

[pisskop]

I play erratically in general, as I play by ear first and by analysis second.  I'm also fairly paranoid, and usually have only a modest concept of self image.
  Its a bad habit that makes me correct too often.  I'm sure it will get better with practice, but until then . . .

I haven't voted for my top choice yet because I am going through the games again.

The Pms we first sent to one another.

Since you've gotten Mask's pms, you know what we were planning for tonight. Do you want to go ahead with it?

I watch you, you guard me . . .
  We could, but I'm not sure if Id be the target.  I say yes by default, although it occurred to me that I could watch myself.

[zombie urist]

NQT I totally did care.

I'm going to vote for Scripten for voting lurkers the entire day, despite posting quite a lot with regards to other players.
...
I'll switch my vote to Flabort if there's a tie at day end.

Speaking of Shakerag, you're going to be looking pretty silly if Shakerag flips scum because didn't you PM Flabort to convince him to kill someone else?

[notquitethere]

ZU

NQT I totally did care.

I'm going to vote for Scripten for voting lurkers the entire day, despite posting quite a lot with regards to other players.
...
I'll switch my vote to Flabort if there's a tie at day end.

That's true, I'd missed that. Why Flabort over TheDarkStar? Why Flabort over Pisskop?

Speaking of Shakerag, you're going to be looking pretty silly if Shakerag flips scum because didn't you PM Flabort to convince him to kill someone else?

You can see in the quoted PM exactly what I said to Flabort about the matter. I convinced him not to kill Pisskop, I said scum expected him to kill Shakerag so if Shakerag is scum they might have take precautions. Don't see how any of that makes me look silly if Shakerag flips scum: I half expect him to.


Pisskop

I haven't voted for my top choice yet because I am going through the games again.

I look forward to seeing this.

The Pms we first sent to one another.[snip]

The timing works exactly. We'll see if Deus confirms this.

[Deus Asmoth]

NQT:

Spoiler: PMs (click to show/hide)

I don't think this counts as a gambit, but here we go regardless. Are you sticking to that no protect idea of yours? Because with flabort putting your role out in the open, the scumteam are likely going to target you regardless of whether he's one of them or not. My point is this: I'm a guardian, and I'll protect you tonight providing you're not some crazy veteran who'll shoot me in the back.

If you turn out to be scum after all, I really hope there's a medium I can complain to...

Yeah no, that's not a gambit, don't worry.

That would be fine, I'll tell you who I watch/follow and what I found tomorrow.  And if I die I hope there's a medium to complain to

Deus Asmoth:

If you still feel like guarding me, I think I have a plan.  I'll watch you to see who targets you, you guard me.  That way, we watch each other's backs.

Meph:

If a guard (of any kind) takes a kill for another player, is their attacker seen as targeting the guard or targeting the initial target?

I watch you, you guard me . . .
  We could, but I'm not sure if Id be the target.  I say yes by default, although it occurred to me that I could watch myself.  If I could scum myself up enough to avoid the NK.

Also, any thoughts on our original agreement?
  I doubt Im the NK now . . . And I don't know if you think you could catch the vig/nk.

I don't have my replies to pisskop saved because there's an option you have to enable to do that for some reason.

[Tiruin]

Told y'all about that PM game 

I don't have my replies to pisskop saved because there's an option you have to enable to do that for some reason.

Profile > Modify Profile > Personal Messaging > CHECK TICKBOX OF: "Save a copy of each personal message in my sent items by default. "

I'll be back in a few hours x_x

[Scripten]

Shakerag has just voted for Flabort, with the intention of tying the vote between Pisskop and Flabort. Obviously Shakerag regardless of alignment had reason to kill Flabort.

Oh, I'd almost forgotten about this. Shakerag's play here really bugged me. i think I said so at the time, but rather than try to show that he was town by scumhunting and participating, Shakerag became defeatist and tried to just kill Flabort off. This would be consistent with scum!Shakerag, since a vig and scum can cross-kill. I'm not so sure it aligns very well with town!Shakerag, though apathy at the prospect of being killed is not necessarily a scumtell. (Though it should be! Town should always play to their best, even (especially) if they are about to die.) Also, tying the vote intentionally is anti-town and sneaky. It gives scum an avenue to say that they were not instrumental in either lynch, while not standing out as a non-participant.

ZU, you obviously didn't care about a tie being formed at the end of the day when you voted Scripten, you only appeared to care about it when it looked like Flabort might not be lynched. What's the deal?

I'm also suspicious about this. If I remember correctly, I had been showing some suspicion of the Deathsword slot, which ZU has replaced into. Even if Shakerag and ZU are not aligned, I could easily see ZU being an alien third-party.

Scripten, being friendly isn't necessarily a sign of being on the same scum team. Do you have anything else against Tiruin?

Nothing solid, I'll admit. It's mostly that almost all of her posts are just fluff and excuses. She says she's been absent, and I understand that, but even when she's posted long posts, they don't really have anything to them. It just feels pretty noncommittal and safe. Self-preserving. Honestly, my suspicions are more about the lack of anything than actual scummy actions, but that's all scum need to survive and win.

And, to be fair, I kinda hope she isn't scum just because she's so damned nice, but that's not exactly alignment-indicative.

[Mephansteras]

The Whiteboard
pisskop: Cheeetar
zombie urist: Deus Asmoth, Persus13
Tiruin: Scripten, notquitethere
UXLZ: zombie urist


Day ends ~5pm Pacific Tuesday

[Deus Asmoth]

Scripten, have you decided why that post made you uncomfortable yet?

ZU

Yeah. I'm going to have to agree with Jim and vote pisskop unless someone claims guardian.

This is a lazy vote with anti-town reasoning. Why would you want a protective role to out themselves just to avoid someone else's lynch, and more to the point, why is this the only situation where you'd unvote pisskop completely out of his own control? Zombie Urist.

Because this is the only situation where pisskop wouldn't be lying scum. Also if pisskop were town, then scum would already know that a guardian must exist and having the guardian claim then wouldn't be very useful to the scum anyways.

Then vote me. Also, not here, your reasoning behind your picks. Does this mean you consider Jim, Cheetar, and Scripten to be town? Why?

Nah. I think I'll vote for UXLZ instead for having a huge number of posts with very little content. Also early in the day he answered a bunch of questions, but didn't ask any of his own.
12345 Most of his posts are like this. Passive and just answering questions.
UXLZ hasn't yet made a solid attack on anyone so far and I doubt he has any real suspects. So:

UXLZ: Who do you suspect and why?

I think Jim is town. Cheetar might be town but I'm less sure of this. Scripten is probably town b/c of his large posts to mastahcheese. Shakerag is a wildcard and I don't have a good read of him yet. Tiruin is kinda scummy for not yet having suspected anyone this day yet.

Bah, need more time for this game.

Wanted to mention that this post makes me uncomfortable, but I can't put my finger on why. I need to look back and study this more intently.